Grindrod Limited (GNDP) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · ZA · Market cap 57.7M ZAC
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from R21.94 to R17.42 (−20.6%) since Jul 20, 2026. Share price +9.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 84% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R27.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (R13.84 to R27.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R56.32 – R111.00 · fair‑value band R13.84 – R27.68 · the R110.60 price screens above the R17.42 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Grindrod Limited (GNDP) currently trades at R110.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R17.42, implying the stock looks roughly 84.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Grindrod Limited generated revenue of 5.6B ZAR at a net margin of 38.5%. Revenue grew 27.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.8%. Net debt stands at 763M ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R13.84 (bear case) to R27.68 (bull case); at R110.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at -84%, GNDP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (R45.13) versus Dividend Discount (R3.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grindrod Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the logistics services business in North America, the Middle East, the United Kingdom, Isle of Man, rest of Europe, Singapore, Asia, the Far East, Australia, South Africa, and Rest of Africa.
Full company description
Grindrod Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the logistics services business in North America, the Middle East, the United Kingdom, Isle of Man, rest of Europe, Singapore, Asia, the Far East, Australia, South Africa, and Rest of Africa. The company operates through Ports and Terminals; Logistics; Group; Private Equity and Property; and Marine Fuels segments. It engages in the bulk terminal activities include receiving, stockpiling, and loading of cargo onto vessels for onward transportation; container handling, transport, warehousing, loading, and offloading; selling and leasing containers; and logistics solutions for the transportation of cargo through road, rail, and sea. The company provides clearing and forwarding of imports and exports, transportation of goods, and ship husbandry services; and various ancillary services, including training, stevedoring, and rentals. In addition, it involves managing and handling port activities; freight services, such as handling and storage of containers, clearing and forwarding to road, rail, and seaborne freight; ships agency; and marine fuels, lubricants, bunkers, and agricultural commodities. Further, the company invests in private and property equity portfolios; and engages in the private equity investment business. The company was founded in 1910 and is based in Durban, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grindrod Limited reported revenue of R5.5B in FY2025 versus R3.9B in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was R2.1B in FY2025, compounding +76.3%/yr from FY2021.
GNDP screens 84% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $103.91 | $103.34 | -1% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $326.77 | $347.68 | +6% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.32 | €53.18 | -4% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,380 | kr 712.57 | -48% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $275.96 | $133.80 | -52% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥32.96 | ¥48.64 | +48% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$185.20 | HK$224.26 | +21% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 199,700 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +135% |
| YTO Express Group 600233 | ¥18.48 | ¥26.51 | +43% |
| JD Logistics, Inc 2618 | HK$14.17 | HK$21.45 | +51% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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