Grindrod Limited (GNDP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Grindrod Limited ZAR 18.60, price ZAR 110, upside -83.1%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R58.00 – R115.00 · fair‑value band R15.04 – R22.58 · the R110.00 price screens above the R18.60 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Grindrod Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the logistics services business in North America, the Middle East, the United Kingdom, Isle of Man, rest of Europe, Singapore, Asia, the Far East, Australia, South Africa, and Rest of Africa.
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Grindrod Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the logistics services business in North America, the Middle East, the United Kingdom, Isle of Man, rest of Europe, Singapore, Asia, the Far East, Australia, South Africa, and Rest of Africa. The company operates through Ports and Terminals; Logistics; Group; Private Equity and Property; and Marine Fuels segments. It engages in the bulk terminal activities include receiving, stockpiling, and loading of cargo onto vessels for onward transportation; container handling, transport, warehousing, loading, and offloading; selling and leasing containers; and logistics solutions for the transportation of cargo through road, rail, and sea. The company provides clearing and forwarding of imports and exports, transportation of goods, and ship husbandry services; and various ancillary services, including training, stevedoring, and rentals. In addition, it involves managing and handling port activities; freight services, such as handling and storage of containers, clearing and forwarding to road, rail, and seaborne freight; ships agency; and marine fuels, lubricants, bunkers, and agricultural commodities. Further, the company invests in private and property equity portfolios; and engages in the private equity investment business. The company was founded in 1910 and is based in Durban, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Grindrod Limited (GNDP) currently trades at R110.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R18.60, 83.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R45.13 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the R110.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R4.49, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R15.04 (bear) to R22.58 (bull), the price of R110.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Grindrod Limited reported revenue of 5.5B ZAR in FY2025 versus 3.9B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was 2.1B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +76.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 57.7M ZAC · P/E ratio 4.0 · P/S ratio 1.58 · EPS (TTM) R0.2620 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 39.1% · Return on equity 21.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −83%, GNDP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (R4.49 to R59.65). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear R15.04Fair Value R18.60Bull R22.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+55.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+54.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 17%
2025 sits 226% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 203 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grindrod Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GNDP
Frequently asked questions
Is Grindrod Limited (GNDP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R18.60 versus a price of R110.00, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GNDP?
Our model-based fair value for Grindrod Limited is R18.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R110.00.
What is the quality score of GNDP?
Grindrod Limited has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R18.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R15.04, optimistic scenario R22.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grindrod Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R18.60, about −83% upside versus a price of R110.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R15.04, optimistic scenario R22.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
Grindrod Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.6B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Grindrod Limited pay a dividend?
Grindrod Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grindrod Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +37.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GNDP use?
Our models discount Grindrod Limited at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grindrod Limited that is +37.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grindrod Limited (GNDP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grindrod Limited grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies +37.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grindrod Limited (GNDP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grindrod Limited (+37.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.59 %: that much free cash flow Grindrod Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grindrod Limited it is R18.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R110.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grindrod Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GNDP trades above its calculated fair value: price R110.00, fair value R18.60, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GNDP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R110.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R18.60). For Grindrod Limited the two are R91.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grindrod Limited worth?
The market values Grindrod Limited at about 57.7M ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R110.00; our models calculate a fair value of R18.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GNDP?
Our models span a range for Grindrod Limited: cautious scenario R15.04, base R18.60, optimistic R22.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R110.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GNDP?
Grindrod Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R18.60 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grindrod Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 21.8%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GNDP from its 52-week high?
Grindrod Limited trades at R110.00, about 4% below its 52-week high of R115.00 and 16% above the low of R94.50 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R18.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grindrod Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grindrod Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R110.00, calculated fair value R18.60 (−83%), Quality Score 74/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GNDP calculated?
We run Grindrod Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R18.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Grindrod Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R110.00. Our model-based fair value is R18.60, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grindrod Limited right now?
A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R22.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Grindrod Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
The market capitalisation of Grindrod Limited is 57.7M ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grindrod Limited is 1.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
Earnings per share at Grindrod Limited are R0.2620 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
The dividend yield of Grindrod Limited is 0.4% (payout 184%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
The net margin of Grindrod Limited is 39.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grindrod Limited is 21.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grindrod Limited is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
The operating margin of Grindrod Limited is 22.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
Revenue at Grindrod Limited is growing +27.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
Earnings per share at Grindrod Limited are growing +202% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grindrod Limited (GNDP) carry?
The net debt of Grindrod Limited is 763M ZAR (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026