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Grindrod Limited (GNDP) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · ZA · Market cap 57.7M ZAC

GL Grindrod Limited GNDP · JSE
PriceR110.60
Fair ValueR17.42
Upside-84.3%
Quality74/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 38.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/11)
Wide moat 72/100
Evidence: High Range R13.84 – R27.68 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from R21.94 to R17.42 (−20.6%) since Jul 20, 2026. Share price +9.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 84% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R27.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • A fairly wide model range (R13.84 to R27.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R111.00 R56.32 Fair Value R17.42 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R56.32 – R111.00 · fair‑value band R13.84 – R27.68 · the R110.60 price screens above the R17.42 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Grindrod Limited (GNDP) currently trades at R110.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R17.42, implying the stock looks roughly 84.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Grindrod Limited generated revenue of 5.6B ZAR at a net margin of 38.5%. Revenue grew 27.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.8%. Net debt stands at 763M ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R13.84 (bear case) to R27.68 (bull case); at R110.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at -84%, GNDP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (R3.37 to R59.65). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF R14.76 R17.38 R21.17 80
Residual Income R14.67 R20.28 R74.28 76
Rev-Margin DCF R12.82 R16.63 R21.32 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R14.55 R17.33 R21.68 38
Owner Earnings R25.42 R30.79 R39.18 31
5Y Revenue Exit R12.82 R16.36 R21.33 39
5Y EBITDA Exit R16.25 R22.23 R29.86 41
5Y P/E Exit R29.01 R44.02 R61.18 38
10Y Revenue Exit R13.36 R16.27 R19.51 36
10Y EBITDA Exit R15.36 R19.59 R24.38 37
10Y P/E Exit R22.08 R31.92 R42.24 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R19.32 R34.44 R42.40 54
EPV R8.10 R8.73 R9.24 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R2.78 R3.37 R3.91 70
DDM Multi-Stage R2.78 R3.48 R4.17 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple R44.74 R59.65 R74.56 63
P/S Multiple R10.89 R14.53 R18.16 58
P/B Multiple R36.22 R48.29 R60.36 55
EV/EBIT R18.11 R23.19 R28.27 53
EV/EBITDA R20.07 R25.81 R31.55 54
EV/Revenue R12.01 R15.93 R19.85 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R6.41 R8.59 R12.81 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R14.76 R17.38 R21.17 80
Rev-Margin DCF R12.82 R16.63 R21.32 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income R14.67 R20.28 R74.28 76
ROIC Compounder R8.10 R8.73 R9.24 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R31.59 R45.13 R58.67 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (R45.13) versus Dividend Discount (R3.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 5.6B ZAC
Revenue growth (YoY) +27.3%
Net margin 38.5%
Return on equity 21.8%
Free cash flow 1.2B ZAC FY2025
P/E ratio 4.0 as of Jun 10, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 22.6%
EPS (TTM) R0.2620
EPS growth (YoY) +202%
Net debt 763M ZAC FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 74/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 83
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Grindrod Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the logistics services business in North America, the Middle East, the United Kingdom, Isle of Man, rest of Europe, Singapore, Asia, the Far East, Australia, South Africa, and Rest of Africa.

Full company description

Grindrod Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the logistics services business in North America, the Middle East, the United Kingdom, Isle of Man, rest of Europe, Singapore, Asia, the Far East, Australia, South Africa, and Rest of Africa. The company operates through Ports and Terminals; Logistics; Group; Private Equity and Property; and Marine Fuels segments. It engages in the bulk terminal activities include receiving, stockpiling, and loading of cargo onto vessels for onward transportation; container handling, transport, warehousing, loading, and offloading; selling and leasing containers; and logistics solutions for the transportation of cargo through road, rail, and sea. The company provides clearing and forwarding of imports and exports, transportation of goods, and ship husbandry services; and various ancillary services, including training, stevedoring, and rentals. In addition, it involves managing and handling port activities; freight services, such as handling and storage of containers, clearing and forwarding to road, rail, and seaborne freight; ships agency; and marine fuels, lubricants, bunkers, and agricultural commodities. Further, the company invests in private and property equity portfolios; and engages in the private equity investment business. The company was founded in 1910 and is based in Durban, South Africa.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Grindrod Limited reported revenue of R5.5B in FY2025 versus R3.9B in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was R2.1B in FY2025, compounding +76.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
5.5B ZAR
Latest YoY
+12.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.8%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−8.4%
Revenue +8.8%/yr
FY21 R3.9B
FY22 R5.9B
FY23 R4.8B
FY24 R4.8B
FY25 R5.5B
Net income +76.3%/yr
FY21 R221M
FY22 R657M
FY23 R1.1B
FY24 R390M
FY25 R2.1B

GNDP screens 84% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grindrod Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GNDP

Peer Group

Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −83% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 38% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 27% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.12× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 45
FUTURE 100 · sector 8
PAST 87 · sector 27
HEALTH 94 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 55

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $103.91 $103.34 -1%
FedEx Corporation FDX $326.77 $347.68 +6%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €55.32 €53.18 -4%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,380 kr 712.57 -48%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $275.96 $133.80 -52%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥32.96 ¥48.64 +48%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$185.20 HK$224.26 +21%
Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 199,700 KRW 468,982 KRW +135%
YTO Express Group 600233 ¥18.48 ¥26.51 +43%
JD Logistics, Inc 2618 HK$14.17 HK$21.45 +51%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Grindrod Limited (GNDP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R17.42 versus a price of R110.60, about −84% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GNDP?
Our model-based fair value for Grindrod Limited is R17.42 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R110.60.
What is the quality score of GNDP?
Grindrod Limited has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Grindrod Limited (GNDP)?
Grindrod Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.6B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GNDP?
The net profit margin of Grindrod Limited is about 38.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 38.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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