HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 20, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of HEXPOL AB (publ) stock SEK 106, price SEK 97.15, upside +9.2%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 64.72 – kr 117.69 · fair‑value band kr 76.76 – kr 135.33 · the kr 97.15 price screens below the kr 106.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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HEXPOL AB (publ) develops, manufactures, and sells various polymer compounds and engineered gaskets, seals, and wheels in Sweden, rest of Europe, the United States, rest of the Americas, and Asia. It operates through two segments, HEXPOL Compounding and HEXPOL Engineered Products.
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The HEXPOL Compounding segment offers natural and synthetic rubber compounds under the HEXFLAME, HEXLIGHT, GloMold, and other brands; thermoplastic elastomer compounds under the Dryflex, Mediprene, Epseal, Lifolit, and Lifocork brands; and thermoplastic compounds under the RheTech brand.
Its HEXPOL Engineered Products segment develops finished gaskets and seals under the Gislaved Gummi brand, as well as wheels under the Stellana brand.
It serves the automotive and engineering; building, construction, and civil engineering; aerospace and transportation; energy; consumer products and electronics; cable and wire; oil and gas; rollers; agriculture; hose; graphic production; toy, sport, and leisure; and plumbing industries, as well as manufacturers of medical equipment, plate heat exchangers, forklifts, and castor wheels.
The company was formerly known as Hexagon Polymers AB and changed its name to HEXPOL AB (publ) in May 2008. HEXPOL AB (publ) was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
Stock analysis
HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B) currently trades at kr 97.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 106.04, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 128.09 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 97.15 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 51.53, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 76.76 (bear) to kr 135.33 (bull), the price of kr 97.15 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
HEXPOL AB (publ) reported revenue of 19.3B SEK in FY2025 versus 16.0B SEK in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.9B SEK in FY2025, compounding −4.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 33.5B SEK (≈ $3.4B) Mid · P/E ratio 18.9 · P/S ratio 1.76 · EPS (TTM) kr 5.30 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 9.6% · Return on equity 13.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 9%, HPOL-B screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 76.76Fair Value kr 106.04Bullkr 135.33
Price kr 97.15 · Upside +9.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.8830 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.7% vs 3.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.8% a year for the price and +2.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (31 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Operational scale in polymer compounds supports stable margins, yet limited differentiation and mixed industrial demand constrain further progress.
Main risk: Mixed industrial demand in core operations could reduce volumes and pressure margins despite specialty expansion.
HEXPOL has completed the acquisition of Vipa Group, adding two production sites and an R&D center focused on thermoplastic compounds for wire and cable. This expands reach into electrification, data centers and related segments while core operations still contend with mixed industrial demand. Does the new platform create enough additional momentum to outweigh integration demands, or do the legacy areas limit overall progress?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 705 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+9.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HEXPOL AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HPOL-B
Frequently asked questions
Is HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 106.04 versus a price of kr 97.15, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HPOL-B?
Our model-based fair value for HEXPOL AB (publ) is kr 106.04 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 97.15.
What is the quality score of HPOL-B?
HEXPOL AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 106.04 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 76.76, optimistic scenario kr 135.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HEXPOL AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 106.04, about +9% upside versus a price of kr 97.15 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 76.76, optimistic scenario kr 135.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
HEXPOL AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 19.0B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
Does HEXPOL AB (publ) pay a dividend?
HEXPOL AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of 4.32% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HEXPOL AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +3.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HPOL-B use?
Our models discount HEXPOL AB (publ) at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HEXPOL AB (publ) that is +3.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HEXPOL AB (publ) grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies +3.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HEXPOL AB (publ) (+3.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.93 %: that much free cash flow HEXPOL AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HEXPOL AB (publ) it is kr 106.04 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of kr 97.15. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HEXPOL AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, HPOL-B trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 97.15, fair value kr 106.04, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HPOL-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 97.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 106.04). For HEXPOL AB (publ) the two are kr 8.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HEXPOL AB (publ) worth?
The market values HEXPOL AB (publ) at about 33.5B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is kr 97.15; our models calculate a fair value of kr 106.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HPOL-B?
Our models span a range for HEXPOL AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 76.76, base kr 106.04, optimistic kr 135.33 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price kr 97.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HPOL-B?
HEXPOL AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 106.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 2.4, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
What is the PEG ratio of HPOL-B?
The PEG ratio of HEXPOL AB (publ) is 2.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for HEXPOL AB (publ) (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 13.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HPOL-B from its 52-week high?
HEXPOL AB (publ) trades at kr 97.15, about 1% below its 52-week high of kr 98.15 and 50% above the low of kr 64.72 (as of Oct 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 106.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HEXPOL AB (publ)?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HEXPOL AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price kr 97.15, calculated fair value kr 106.04 (+9%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HPOL-B calculated?
We run HEXPOL AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 106.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. HEXPOL AB (publ) currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
The closing price on Oct 20, 2026 was kr 97.15. Our model-based fair value is kr 106.04, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HEXPOL AB (publ) right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B) come from?
Earnings per share at HEXPOL AB (publ) grew +6.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin −1.2 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of HEXPOL AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
The market capitalisation of HEXPOL AB (publ) is 33.5B SEK (≈ $3.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HEXPOL AB (publ) is 1.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
Earnings per share at HEXPOL AB (publ) are kr 5.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
The dividend yield of HEXPOL AB (publ) is 4.3% (payout 79.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
The net margin of HEXPOL AB (publ) is 9.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HEXPOL AB (publ) is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HEXPOL AB (publ) is 14.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
The operating margin of HEXPOL AB (publ) is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
Revenue at HEXPOL AB (publ) is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B)?
Earnings per share at HEXPOL AB (publ) are growing −3.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HEXPOL AB (publ) (HPOL-B) carry?
The net debt of HEXPOL AB (publ) is 3.2B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 13, 2026