Hub Group Inc (HUBG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hub Group Inc $32.60, price $31.40, upside +3.8%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.74 – $52.19 · fair‑value band $22.75 – $42.44 · the $31.40 price screens below the $32.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. It operates in two segments, Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (ITS), and Logistics.
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Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. It operates in two segments, Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (ITS), and Logistics. The ITS segment offers intermodal and dedicated trucking services, including freight transportation, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and dedicated and regional trucking services. The Logistics segment provides transportation management, freight brokerage, shipment optimization, load consolidation, mode selection, carrier management, load planning and execution, warehousing, fulfillment, cross-docking, and consolidation and final mile delivery services. It also provides trucking transportation services, including dry van, expedited, less-than-truckload, and refrigerated and flatbed services. As of December 31, 2024, the company operated a fleet of approximately 2,300 tractors, 3,200 employee drivers, 500 independent owner-operators, and 4,700 trailers; and owned approximately 50,000 dry and 53-foot containers, as well as 900 refrigerated 53-foot containers. It serves a range of industries, including retail, consumer products, automotive, and durable goods. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Hub Group Inc (HUBG) currently trades at $31.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.60, implying the stock looks roughly 3.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $39.69 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the $31.40 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.35, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $22.75 (bear) to $42.44 (bull), the price of $31.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Hub Group Inc reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2024 versus $3.5B in FY2020, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was $104M in FY2024, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap $3.1B · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) $1.74 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 4%, HUBG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.75Fair Value $32.60Bull $42.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.24 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+5.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 6%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.6% a year for the price and −3.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (82 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 208 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hub Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HUBG
Frequently asked questions
Is Hub Group Inc (HUBG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.60 versus a price of $31.40, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HUBG?
Our model-based fair value for Hub Group Inc is $32.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.40.
What is the quality score of HUBG?
Hub Group Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.75, optimistic scenario $42.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hub Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.60, about +4% upside versus a price of $31.40 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $22.75, optimistic scenario $42.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
Hub Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hub Group Inc pay a dividend?
Hub Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hub Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +5.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HUBG use?
Our models discount Hub Group Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hub Group Inc that is +5.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hub Group Inc (HUBG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hub Group Inc grew +1.5 % a year. The price currently implies +5.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hub Group Inc (HUBG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hub Group Inc (+5.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.48 %: that much free cash flow Hub Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hub Group Inc it is $32.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $31.40. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hub Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HUBG trades below its calculated fair value: price $31.40, fair value $32.60, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HUBG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.60). For Hub Group Inc the two are $1.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hub Group Inc worth?
The market values Hub Group Inc at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $31.40; our models calculate a fair value of $32.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HUBG?
Our models span a range for Hub Group Inc: cautious scenario $22.75, base $32.60, optimistic $42.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $31.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HUBG?
Hub Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 1.9, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
What is the PEG ratio of HUBG?
The PEG ratio of Hub Group Inc is 2.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hub Group Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HUBG from its 52-week high?
Hub Group Inc trades at $31.40, about 40% below its 52-week high of $52.19 and at the low of $31.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hub Group Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hub Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $31.40, calculated fair value $32.60 (+4%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HUBG calculated?
We run Hub Group Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hub Group Inc currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $31.40. Our model-based fair value is $32.60, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hub Group Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($22.75 to $42.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hub Group Inc (HUBG) come from?
Earnings per share at Hub Group Inc grew +15.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin +8.2 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hub Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
The market capitalisation of Hub Group Inc is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hub Group Inc is 0.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
Earnings per share at Hub Group Inc are $1.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
The dividend yield of Hub Group Inc is 1.6% (payout 28.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
The net margin of Hub Group Inc is 2.6% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hub Group Inc is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hub Group Inc is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
The operating margin of Hub Group Inc is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
Revenue at Hub Group Inc is growing −5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hub Group Inc (HUBG)?
Earnings per share at Hub Group Inc are growing +20.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hub Group Inc (HUBG) carry?
The net debt of Hub Group Inc is $410M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026