Hub Group (HUBG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $3.1B
Hub Group
HUBG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +4.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 32% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($22.75 to $42.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.74 – $52.19 · fair‑value band $22.75 – $42.44 · the $47.80 price screens above the $32.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Hub Group (HUBG) currently trades at $47.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.60, implying the stock looks roughly 31.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hub Group generated revenue of $3.7B at a net margin of 2.8%. Revenue declined 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.2%. Net debt stands at $410M. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $22.75 (bear case) to $42.44 (bull case); at $47.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -32%, HUBG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($38.85) versus Dividend Discount ($7.35). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. It operates in two segments, Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (ITS), and Logistics.
Full company description
Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. It operates in two segments, Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (ITS), and Logistics. The ITS segment offers intermodal and dedicated trucking services, including freight transportation, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and dedicated and regional trucking services. The Logistics segment provides transportation management, freight brokerage, shipment optimization, load consolidation, mode selection, carrier management, load planning and execution, warehousing, fulfillment, cross-docking, and consolidation and final mile delivery services. It also provides trucking transportation services, including dry van, expedited, less-than-truckload, and refrigerated and flatbed services. As of December 31, 2024, the company operated a fleet of approximately 2,300 tractors, 3,200 employee drivers, 500 independent owner-operators, and 4,700 trailers; and owned approximately 50,000 dry and 53-foot containers, as well as 900 refrigerated 53-foot containers. It serves a range of industries, including retail, consumer products, automotive, and durable goods. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Hub Group reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2024 versus $3.5B in FY2020, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was $104M in FY2024, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2020.
HUBG screens 32% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Deadline Alert: Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) Shareholders Who Lost Money Urged To Contact Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter LLP About Securities F
- Hagens Berman Notifies Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) Investors of Securities Class Action Lawsuit and Encourages Investors with Losses to Contact t
- 3 Reasons HUBG is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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