Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $2.6B

Below-average quality, and screening another 46% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($130.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range ($70.34 to $130.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $48.24 – $195.63 · fair‑value band $70.34 – $130.63 · the $184.75 price screens above the $100.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) currently trades at $184.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $100.48, implying the stock looks roughly 45.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation generated revenue of $3.7B at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue grew 42.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.8%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $70.34 (bear case) to $130.63 (bull case); at $184.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 164% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -46%, KALU screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($117.04) versus DCF Models ($26.72). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. It offers flat-rolled plate, sheet, and coil; extruded rod, bar, hollows, and shapes; drawn rod, bar, pipe, tube, and wire; and cast aluminum products.

Full company description

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. It offers flat-rolled plate, sheet, and coil; extruded rod, bar, hollows, and shapes; drawn rod, bar, pipe, tube, and wire; and cast aluminum products. The company also offers aero/HS products, such as heat-treated plates and sheets, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rods and bars, and seamless drawn tubes and billets used for end uses in the global aerospace, space, and defense industries, as well as packaging products, including bare and coated 3000 and 5000-series alloy aluminum coils used in beverage and food packaging industry. In addition, the company provides general engineering products comprising 6000-series aluminum alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire, and standard extruded shapes used in various applications, including the production of armor for military vehicles, ordnances, semiconductor manufacturing cells, electronic devices, power transmission bus pipe and bar, after-market motor sport parts, tooling plates, machinery and equipment parts, bolts, screws, and rivets. Further, it offers automotive extrusions consisting of 6000-series extruded aluminum products for structural components, crash management systems, anti-lock braking systems, and drawn tubes for drive shafts, as well as offers fabrication services, such as sawing and cutting to length. The company sells its products directly to aerospace and automotive manufacturers, tier one aerospace and automotive suppliers, beverage and food packaging manufacturers, and metal service centers through sales personnel located in the United States, Canada, and Western Europe. Kaiser Aluminum Corporation was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $113M in FY2025.

KALU screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Are Industrial Products Stocks Lagging Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) This Year? Yahoo Finance · Jul 31, 2026
• Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Beats Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates Yahoo Finance · Jul 22, 2026
• Kaiser Aluminum cut to Sell equivalent at Wells Fargo as valuation looks stretched Seeking Alpha · Jul 9, 2026

Peer Group

Aluminum · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.