Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation $53.15, price $156, upside -66.0%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Kaiser Aluminum Corporation for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.24 – $195.63 · fair‑value band $45.80 – $89.83 · the $156.26 price screens above the $53.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Kaiser Aluminum in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Kaiser Aluminum is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. It offers flat-rolled plate, sheet, and coil; extruded rod, bar, hollows, and shapes; drawn rod, bar, pipe, tube, and wire; and cast aluminum products.
Show more
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. It offers flat-rolled plate, sheet, and coil; extruded rod, bar, hollows, and shapes; drawn rod, bar, pipe, tube, and wire; and cast aluminum products. The company also offers aero/HS products, such as heat-treated plates and sheets, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rods and bars, and seamless drawn tubes and billets used for end uses in the global aerospace, space, and defense industries, as well as packaging products, including bare and coated 3000 and 5000-series alloy aluminum coils used in beverage and food packaging industry. In addition, the company provides general engineering products comprising 6000-series aluminum alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire, and standard extruded shapes used in various applications, including the production of armor for military vehicles, ordnances, semiconductor manufacturing cells, electronic devices, power transmission bus pipe and bar, after-market motor sport parts, tooling plates, machinery and equipment parts, bolts, screws, and rivets. Further, it offers automotive extrusions consisting of 6000-series extruded aluminum products for structural components, crash management systems, anti-lock braking systems, and drawn tubes for drive shafts, as well as offers fabrication services, such as sawing and cutting to length. The company sells its products directly to aerospace and automotive manufacturers, tier one aerospace and automotive suppliers, beverage and food packaging manufacturers, and metal service centers through sales personnel located in the United States, Canada, and Western Europe. Kaiser Aluminum Corporation was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) currently trades at $156.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $53.15, implying the stock looks roughly 194.0% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $117.04 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the $156.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $33.87, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $45.80 (bear) to $89.83 (bull), the price of $156.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $113M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.6B · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 0.57 · EPS (TTM) $9.17 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 18.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −66%, KALU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $45.80Fair Value $53.15Bull $89.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.45 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.3% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19% vs 4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Kaiser Aluminum Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−66% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth42% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.28× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.0× · Pricier than median
P/B3.14× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.70× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA10.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.17× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)75· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)36· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)39· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $53.15 versus a price of $156.26, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KALU?
Our model-based fair value for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is $53.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $156.26.
What is the quality score of KALU?
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $53.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $45.80, optimistic scenario $89.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kaiser Aluminum Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $53.15, about −66% upside versus a price of $156.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $45.80, optimistic scenario $89.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Kaiser Aluminum Corporation pay a dividend?
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kaiser Aluminum Corporation it is $53.15 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $156.26. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kaiser Aluminum Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, KALU trades above its calculated fair value: price $156.26, fair value $53.15, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KALU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($156.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($53.15). For Kaiser Aluminum Corporation the two are $103.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kaiser Aluminum Corporation worth?
The market values Kaiser Aluminum Corporation at about $2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $156.26; our models calculate a fair value of $53.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KALU?
Our models span a range for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation: cautious scenario $45.80, base $53.15, optimistic $89.83 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $156.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KALU?
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $53.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 3.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
What is the PEG ratio of KALU?
The PEG ratio of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is 1.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 18.8%, debt of 1.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KALU from its 52-week high?
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation trades at $156.26, about 20% below its 52-week high of $195.63 and 115% above the low of $72.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $53.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kaiser Aluminum Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kaiser Aluminum Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $156.26, calculated fair value $53.15 (−66%), Quality Score 49/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KALU calculated?
We run Kaiser Aluminum Corporation through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $53.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Kaiser Aluminum Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $156.26. Our model-based fair value is $53.15, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kaiser Aluminum Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($89.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($45.80 to $89.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) come from?
Earnings per share at Kaiser Aluminum Corporation grew −0.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.4 %, EBIT margin −11.4 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
The market capitalisation of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is $2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is 0.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
Earnings per share at Kaiser Aluminum Corporation are $9.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
The dividend yield of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is 2.0% (payout 33.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
The net margin of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is 3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
The operating margin of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
Revenue at Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is growing +42.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?
Earnings per share at Kaiser Aluminum Corporation are growing +183% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) generate?
The free cash flow of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is −$25.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) carry?
The net debt of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Kaiser Aluminum Corporation in the live analysis
One click puts Kaiser Aluminum Corporation on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026