Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. $20.45, price $20.21, upside +1.2%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range $9.95 – $20.21 · fair‑value band $14.31 – $26.58 · the $20.21 price screens below the $20.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Konoike Transport Co.,Ltd. engages in logistics business in Japan and internationally.
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Konoike Transport Co.,Ltd. engages in logistics business in Japan and internationally. The company also provides value-added services in the steel industry; repair and maintenance services of manufacturing facilities; design, creation, and processing of plant equipment, as well as installation and maintenance work; receiving and preparing raw materials, packaging, and equipment inspection; temperature-controlled logistics services; and support services at airports. In addition, it is involved in contract operations of maintenance, construction, and manufacture of chemicals, gases, and housing facilities; storage and distribution of various materials, general apparel merchandise, and daily necessities; refurbishment and coating of industrial air conditioners; provision of renewable energy services; transportation of industrial gas tank trucks and machine tools; inspection, maintenance, and mechanic support for imported automobiles; manufacture and sale of frozen fishery processed foodstuff. Further, the company engages in the import/export cargo warehousing and transportation of cargo; railway transportation of containers and automobiles; cleaning and sterilization outsourcing of medical devices; contracting operations of in-hospital logistics; operating room assistance; sales of various systems; and provision of management support and other services. Konoike Transport Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Stock analysis
Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF) currently trades at $20.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.45, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $35.01 per share, and 20 of the 23 models we run sit above the $20.21 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.96, and 3 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.31 (bear) to $26.58 (bull), the price of $20.21 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. reported revenue of ¥345B in FY2025 versus ¥292B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥14.1B in FY2025, compounding +30.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) $1.52 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 1%, KNOIF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.31Fair Value $20.45Bull $26.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 6%
2025 sits 69% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.9% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KNOIF
Frequently asked questions
Is Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.45 versus a price of $20.21, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of KNOIF?
Our model-based fair value for Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. is $20.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.21.
What is the quality score of KNOIF?
Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.31, optimistic scenario $26.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.45, about +1% upside versus a price of $20.21 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $14.31, optimistic scenario $26.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥356B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. pay a dividend?
Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KNOIF use?
Our models discount Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. that is +0.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. grew +2.1 % a year. The price currently implies +0.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (+0.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.02 %: that much free cash flow Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. it is $20.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $20.21. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KNOIF trades below its calculated fair value: price $20.21, fair value $20.45, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KNOIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.45). For Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. the two are $0.2370 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. worth?
The market values Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $20.21; our models calculate a fair value of $20.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KNOIF?
Our models span a range for Konoike Transport Co.Ltd.: cautious scenario $14.31, base $20.45, optimistic $26.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $20.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KNOIF?
Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.5%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KNOIF from its 52-week high?
Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. trades at $20.21, at its 52-week high of $20.21 and 17% above the low of $17.34 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Konoike Transport Co.Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $20.21, calculated fair value $20.45 (+1%), Quality Score 63/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KNOIF calculated?
We run Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $20.21. Our model-based fair value is $20.45, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($14.31 to $26.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
The market capitalisation of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
Earnings per share at Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. are $1.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
The dividend yield of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. is 3.8% (payout 50.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
The net margin of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
The operating margin of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
Revenue at Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. is growing −1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF)?
Earnings per share at Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. are growing +611% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. (KNOIF) carry?
The net debt of Konoike Transport Co.Ltd. is ¥1.9B (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026