KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc $16.55, price $6.06, upside +173.1%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.77 – $13.53 · fair‑value band $5.55 – $49.32 · the $6.06 price screens below the $16.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, focuses primarily on originating and acquiring transitional senior loans secured by commercial real estate (CRE) assets in the United States.
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KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, focuses primarily on originating and acquiring transitional senior loans secured by commercial real estate (CRE) assets in the United States. It engages in the origination and purchase of credit investments related to CRE, including leveraged and unleveraged commercial real estate loans. The company has also elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF) currently trades at $6.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.55, implying the stock looks roughly 63.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $30.58 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the $6.06 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.22, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.55 (bear) to $49.32 (bull), the price of $6.06 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc reported revenue of $458M in FY2025 versus $152M in FY2021, a compound +31.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$47.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $449M · EPS (TTM) $−3.26 · Dividend yield 14.0% · Net margin −10.3% · Return on equity −16.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% · Operating margin 136% · Revenue (TTM) −$72.4M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 173%, KREF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.55Fair Value $16.55Bull $49.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +37.0% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+80.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
43.6% (2020) → 59.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.1% a year for the price.
Compare KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside+173% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)136% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth245% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)14.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.52× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KREF
Frequently asked questions
Is KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.55 versus a price of $6.06, about +173% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KREF?
Our model-based fair value for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is $16.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.06.
What is the quality score of KREF?
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.55, optimistic scenario $49.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.55, about +173% upside versus a price of $6.06 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.55, optimistic scenario $49.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc pay a dividend?
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 14.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +36.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KREF use?
Our models discount KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc that is +36.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc grew +29.5 % a year. The price currently implies +36.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (+36.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.62 %: that much free cash flow KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc it is $16.55 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $6.06. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, KREF trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.06, fair value $16.55, a gap of about +173% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KREF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.55). For KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc the two are $10.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc worth?
The market values KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc at about $449M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $6.06; our models calculate a fair value of $16.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KREF?
Our models span a range for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc: cautious scenario $5.55, base $16.55, optimistic $49.32 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $6.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of KREF?
The PEG ratio of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is 5.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
Balance-sheet figures for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −16.5%, debt of 3.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KREF from its 52-week high?
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc trades at $6.06, about 29% below its 52-week high of $8.49 and 5% above the low of $5.77 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $6.06, calculated fair value $16.55 (+173%), Quality Score 49/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KREF calculated?
We run KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc currently trades 173 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $6.06. Our model-based fair value is $16.55, about +173% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($5.55 to $49.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
The market capitalisation of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is $449M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
Earnings per share at KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc are $−3.26. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
The dividend yield of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is 14.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
The net margin of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is −10.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is −16.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
The operating margin of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is 136% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF) generate?
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc generates revenue of −$72.4M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
Revenue at KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is growing +245% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)?
Earnings per share at KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc are growing −64.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF) carry?
The net debt of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is $4.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 69.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026