Landstar System, Inc (LSTR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $7.1B
Landstar System, Inc
LSTR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $72.92 to $92.45 (+26.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −10.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($115.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $118.10 – $225.37 · fair‑value band $69.35 – $115.57 · the $182.99 price screens above the $92.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Landstar System, Inc (LSTR) currently trades at $182.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $92.45, implying the stock looks roughly 49.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Landstar System, Inc generated revenue of $4.8B at a net margin of 2.6%. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $263M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $69.35 (bear case) to $115.57 (bull case); at $182.99, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -49%, LSTR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($89.74) versus Asset-Based ($15.71). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Landstar System, Inc. provides transportation management solutions in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Transportation Logistics and Insurance.
Full company description
Landstar System, Inc. provides transportation management solutions in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Transportation Logistics and Insurance. The Transportation Logistics segment offers a range of transportation services, including truckload, less-than-truckload and other truck transportation, rail intermodal, air cargo, ocean cargo, expedited ground and air delivery of time-critical freight, heavy-haul/specialized, hazardous materials, cold chain/temperature-controlled, U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico cross-border, intra-Mexico, intra-Canada, project cargo, and customs brokerage services, as well as transportation services to other transportation companies, such as third party logistics and less-than-truckload service providers. This segment serves the automotive parts and assemblies, consumer durables, building products, metals, chemicals, foodstuffs, heavy machinery, retail, electronics, military equipment and general commodities industries. The Insurance segment provides risk and claims management services; and reinsures risks of its independent contractors. The company markets its services through a network of agents, third party capacity providers, and employees. Landstar System, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Landstar System, Inc reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $6.5B in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was $115M in FY2025, compounding −25.9%/yr from FY2021.
LSTR screens 49% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Landstar Stock a Buy After Its Strong Earnings and Revenue Rebound?
- Does Landstar System’s (LSTR) Earnings Beat, Dividend Hike and New CCO Reframe Its Risk Profile?
- Landstar System (LSTR) Appoints Bill Clement As Commercial Chief During Leadership Changes
- Landstar (LSTR) Stock Looks Below Fair Value While Earnings Sit High
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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