Mainfreight Limited (MFGHF) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $4.2B
Mainfreight Limited
MFGHF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $29.97 to $28.08 (−6.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +6.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($38.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($18.76 to $38.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.01 – $57.69 · fair‑value band $18.76 – $38.28 · the $40.61 price screens above the $28.08 fair value. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Mainfreight Limited (MFGHF) currently trades at $40.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.08, implying the stock looks roughly 30.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mainfreight Limited generated revenue of $5.4B at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.1%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.76 (bear case) to $38.28 (bull case); at $40.61, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -31%, MFGHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($66.01) versus Asset-Based ($14.38). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mainfreight Limited provides supply chain logistics services in New Zealand, Australia, the Americas, Europe, and Asia. It offers domestic transportation, international air and ocean freight forwarding, warehousing, and supply chain management services.
Full company description
Mainfreight Limited provides supply chain logistics services in New Zealand, Australia, the Americas, Europe, and Asia. It offers domestic transportation, international air and ocean freight forwarding, warehousing, and supply chain management services. The company was formerly known as Mainfreight Transport Limited and changed its name to Mainfreight Limited in April 1996. Mainfreight Limited was incorporated in 1978 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Mainfreight Limited reported revenue of $5.4B in FY2026 versus $5.2B in FY2022, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $254M in FY2026, compounding −8.1%/yr from FY2022.
MFGHF screens 31% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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