NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC VND 170,390, price VND 83,800, upside +103.3%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 48,284 VND – 112,896 VND · fair‑value band 103,177 VND – 354,544 VND · the 83,800 VND price screens below the 170,390 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Noibai Cargo Terminal Services Joint Stock Company engages in the provision of cargo handling services at the Noi Bai International Airport in Vietnam. The company provides direct support services for air transport, including passenger terminal operation; terminal and warehouse operations; ground commercial technical; and ground transportation services.
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Noibai Cargo Terminal Services Joint Stock Company engages in the provision of cargo handling services at the Noi Bai International Airport in Vietnam. The company provides direct support services for air transport, including passenger terminal operation; terminal and warehouse operations; ground commercial technical; and ground transportation services. It is also involved in providing real estate trading, land use rights owned; other support services related to transportation and education; repair of machinery and equipment, electronic and optical equipment, electrical equipment; maintenance of transport equipment; wholesale of motor vehicles and other motor vehicles; sale of parts and accessories of motor vehicle and other motor vehicles; wholesale of other machinery, equipment and spare parts; other specialized wholesale; freight transport of goods by road; warehousing and storage of goods; advertising delivery; motor vehicle and machinery rental; other tangible goods without operators; temporary labor supply; photocopying, document preparation; and other specialized office support activities. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Hanoi, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT) currently trades at 83,800 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 170,390 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 50.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 437,769 VND per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the 83,800 VND price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 18,171 VND, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 103,177 VND (bear) to 354,544 VND (bull), the price of 83,800 VND sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC reported revenue of 1.2T VND in FY2025 versus 742B VND in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was 387B VND in FY2025, compounding +14.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.5T VND · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 1.77 · EPS (TTM) 15,117 VND · Dividend yield 8.4% · Net margin 31.9% · Return on equity 59.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 47.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 103%, NCT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 103,177 VNDFair Value 170,390 VNDBull 354,544 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (11,100 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.97/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in VND (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 35%
2025 sits 63% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.8% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
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Is NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 170,390 VND versus a price of 83,800 VND, about +103% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NCT?
Our model-based fair value for NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC is 170,390 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 83,800 VND.
What is the quality score of NCT?
NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 170,390 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 103,177 VND, optimistic scenario 354,544 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 170,390 VND, about +103% upside versus a price of 83,800 VND (undervalued). Cautious scenario 103,177 VND, optimistic scenario 354,544 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3T VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC pay a dividend?
NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC would have to grow free cash flow by -4.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NCT use?
Our models discount NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC that is -4.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC grew +12.6 % a year. The price currently implies -4.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (-4.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.16 %: that much free cash flow NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC it is 170,390 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 83,800 VND. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NCT trades below its calculated fair value: price 83,800 VND, fair value 170,390 VND, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (83,800 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (170,390 VND). For NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC the two are 86,590 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC worth?
The market values NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC at about 2.5T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 83,800 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 170,390 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NCT?
Our models span a range for NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC: cautious scenario 103,177 VND, base 170,390 VND, optimistic 354,544 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 83,800 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NCT?
NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 170,390 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.5, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
Balance-sheet figures for NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 59.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NCT from its 52-week high?
NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC trades at 83,800 VND, about 25% below its 52-week high of 112,000 VND and 2% above the low of 82,400 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 170,390 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 83,800 VND, calculated fair value 170,390 VND (+103%), Quality Score 80/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NCT calculated?
We run NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 170,390 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC currently trades 103 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 83,800 VND. Our model-based fair value is 170,390 VND, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (80/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (103,177 VND). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (103,177 VND to 354,544 VND). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC
How large is the market capitalisation of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
The market capitalisation of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC is 2.5T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC is 1.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
Earnings per share at NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC are 15,117 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
The dividend yield of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC is 8.4% (payout 46.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
The net margin of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC is 31.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC is 59.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC is 47.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
The operating margin of NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC is 31.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
Revenue at NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC is growing +21.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC (NCT)?
Earnings per share at NoiBai Cargo Terminal Services JSC are growing +64.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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