Nichols (NICL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · GB · Market cap 355M GBX · ISIN GB0006389398
What is Nichols really worth?
A strong business, but trading 17% above our fair value of £9.60.
As of Sep 5, 2026, the fair value of Nichols is £9.60 per share against a price of £11.25, so the fair value sits 15% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +5.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (£6.71 to £13.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £7.82 – £14.18 · fair‑value band £6.71 – £13.10 · the £11.25 price screens above the £9.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Nichols (NICL) currently trades at £11.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £9.60, implying the stock looks roughly 17.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £10.04 per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the £11.25 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.74, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nichols generated revenue of £175M at a net margin of 12.3%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £51.0M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £6.71 (bear case) to £13.10 (bull case); at £11.25, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −15%, NICL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.1658 per share, which is 1.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£10.04) versus Asset-Based (£1.74). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nichols plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in supply of soft drinks to the retail, wholesale, catering, licensed, and leisure industries in the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Packaged and Out of Home segments.
Full company description
Nichols plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in supply of soft drinks to the retail, wholesale, catering, licensed, and leisure industries in the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Packaged and Out of Home segments. The company offers squash, still drinks, flavored water and carbonates, and energy drinks under the Vimto, Levi Roots, and SLUSH PUPPiE brands; and mixers, juices, cordials, post-mix, and frozen drinks under the ICEE, CocaCola, Pepsi, IRN BRU, Old Jamaica, Ocean Spray, and Sunkist brands. It distributes its products through grocery, wholesalers, and convenience stores, as well as cinemas chains, theme parks, pubs, and restaurants. The company also exports its products. Nichols plc was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Newton-le-Willows, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nichols reported revenue of £175M in FY2025 versus £144M in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was £21.4M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +4.9 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NICL screens 17% overvalued. Compare with The Coca-Cola Company →
Peer Group
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 87 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company KO | $88.07 | $36.57 | −58% |
| PepsiCo, Inc PEP | $139.72 | $106.91 | −23% |
| Monster Beverage Corporation MNST | $46.70 | $35.82 | −23% |
| Nongfu Spring Co 9633 | HK$42.54 | HK$30.90 | −27% |
| Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP | €93.10 | €70.86 | −24% |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP | $32.18 | $30.99 | −4% |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF | $112.58 | $108.50 | −4% |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE | €53.10 | €46.77 | −12% |
| Varun Beverages Limited VBL | ₹431.00 | ₹187.49 | −56% |
| Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 | ¥123.07 | ¥107.57 | −13% |
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