NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S DKK 252, price DKK 281, upside -10.2%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 153.40 – kr 595.00 · fair‑value band kr 206.59 – kr 348.46 · the kr 280.50 price screens above the kr 251.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides asset-light freight forwarding services through road, rail, air, and ocean in Denmark, Germany, the United States, Sweden, Finland, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Road & Logistics and Air & Ocean.
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NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides asset-light freight forwarding services through road, rail, air, and ocean in Denmark, Germany, the United States, Sweden, Finland, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Road & Logistics and Air & Ocean. It offers road freight solutions, including full-loads, part loads, and groupage; special transport; project transport; temperature-controlled freight transport; and temperature-controlled freight transport, high-tech, furniture transport and logistics, automotive, cycling, textiles, sensitive and regulated goods, dangerous goods freight transport, powder, distribution, and express service. The company also provides ocean freight, such as port-to-port/door-to-door, full container load, less-than-container-load, short sea, buyer's consolidation, cross trade, project transport, charter customs clearance, temperature-controlled transport, and dangerous goods; and air freight comprising airport-to-airport/door-to-door, consolidation, direct shipments, temperature-controlled transport, full/part charter, onboard courier, and dangerous goods. In addition, it offers daily departures, day to day, express, and door to door services; project transportation, including RoRo, oversized cargo, break bulk/heavy loads, point to point/cross trade/third party logistics, vessel and project charter, dangerous goods, turnkey transport, and surveillance and reporting services; and project transport consulting services which include vessel load surveying, velles operations, packaging and securing control, export/import document control, customs clearance, heavy lifting and load planning, and reporting services. Further, the company provides furniture logistics; warehouse logistics; 4PL services; and multimodal freight transport services. NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S was founded in 1988 and is based in Hvidovre, Denmark.
Stock analysis
NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG) currently trades at kr 280.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 251.87, implying the stock looks roughly 11.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 480.80 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 280.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 47.65, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 206.59 (bear) to kr 348.46 (bull), the price of kr 280.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S reported revenue of 11.4B DKK in FY2025 versus 7.3B DKK in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was 217M DKK in FY2025, compounding −11.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.1B DKK (≈ $934M) · P/E ratio 27.7 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) kr 10.14 · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 16.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3% · Operating margin 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at −10%, NTG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 206.59Fair Value kr 251.87Bull kr 348.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 7.42 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+18.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1% vs −6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.3% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
Compare NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 216 stocks
P/B3.96× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTG
Frequently asked questions
Is NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 251.87 versus a price of kr 280.50, about −10% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NTG?
Our model-based fair value for NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S is kr 251.87 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 280.50.
What is the quality score of NTG?
NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 251.87 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 206.59, optimistic scenario kr 348.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 251.87, about −10% upside versus a price of kr 280.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 206.59, optimistic scenario kr 348.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.7B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S would have to grow free cash flow by +0.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NTG use?
Our models discount NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S that is +0.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S grew +16.4 % a year. The price currently implies +0.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (+0.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.05 %: that much free cash flow NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S it is kr 251.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 280.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NTG trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 280.50, fair value kr 251.87, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 280.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 251.87). For NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S the two are kr 28.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S worth?
The market values NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S at about 6.1B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 280.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 251.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTG?
Our models span a range for NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S: cautious scenario kr 206.59, base kr 251.87, optimistic kr 348.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 280.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NTG?
NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 251.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.0, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
Balance-sheet figures for NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTG from its 52-week high?
NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S trades at kr 280.50, about 2% below its 52-week high of kr 287.00 and 83% above the low of kr 153.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 251.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 280.50, calculated fair value kr 251.87 (−10%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTG calculated?
We run NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 251.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 280.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 251.87, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
The market capitalisation of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S is 6.1B DKK (≈ $934M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S is 0.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
Earnings per share at NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S are kr 10.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
The net margin of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S is 14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
The operating margin of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
Revenue at NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S is growing +10.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG)?
Earnings per share at NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S are growing +8.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S (NTG) carry?
The net debt of NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S is 2.4B DKK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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