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Posti Group (POSTI) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · FI · Market cap €405M

PG Posti Group POSTI · HE
Price€10.40
Fair Value€9.22
Upside-11.4%
Quality53/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 2.1% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
8.48% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Narrow moat 39/100
Evidence: High Range €6.45 – €11.98 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +4.9% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 11% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (€6.45 to €11.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from €6.45 (bear) to €11.98 (bull), base €9.22. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 53/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (10 months)

€10.46 €7.50 Fair Value €9.22 Oct 2025 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

10‑month range €7.50 – €10.46 · fair‑value band €6.45 – €11.98 · the €10.40 price screens above the €9.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Posti Group (POSTI) currently trades at €10.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.22, implying the stock looks roughly 11.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Posti Group generated revenue of €1.4B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue declined 1.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.3%. Net debt stands at €228M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €6.45 (bear case) to €11.98 (bull case); at €10.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -11%, POSTI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €4.53 €6.74 €10.17 80
Residual Income €5.50 €5.85 €6.28 76
Rev-Margin DCF €6.01 €10.86 €16.76 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €4.28 €6.61 €10.53 38
Owner Earnings €12.37 €17.17 €25.21 31
5Y Revenue Exit €6.01 €10.66 €17.41 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €20.85 €36.30 €56.76 41
5Y P/E Exit €4.35 €7.79 €11.89 38
10Y Revenue Exit €4.93 €8.08 €11.47 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €13.42 €22.56 €32.55 37
10Y P/E Exit €4.27 €6.46 €8.52 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €3.95 €4.82 €5.43 54
EPV €4.74 €5.86 €6.78 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €35.11 €37.84 €41.92 70
DDM Multi-Stage €35.11 €41.79 €50.41 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €9.14 €12.19 €15.23 63
P/S Multiple €7.40 €9.86 €12.33 58
P/B Multiple €7.40 €9.86 €12.33 55
EV/EBIT €13.05 €18.54 €24.02 53
EV/EBITDA €40.01 €54.49 €68.97 54
EV/Revenue €8.33 €13.37 €18.41 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €3.42 €4.58 €6.84 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €4.53 €6.74 €10.17 80
Rev-Margin DCF €6.01 €10.86 €16.76 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €5.50 €5.85 €6.28 76
ROIC Compounder €4.74 €5.86 €6.78 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €6.45 €9.22 €11.98 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€37.84) versus Asset-Based (€4.58). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €1.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) -1.3%
Net margin 2.1%
Return on equity 11.3%
Free cash flow €38.4M FY2025
P/E ratio 13.0
More key figures
Operating margin 5.3%
EPS (TTM) €0.7400
Dividend yield 8.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +20.3%
Net debt €228M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 57
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 87
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Posti Group Oyj operates as a distribution and logistics company in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Baltics, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Postal Services; eCommerce and Delivery Services; and Fulfillment and Logistics Services.

Full company description

Posti Group Oyj operates as a distribution and logistics company in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Baltics, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Postal Services; eCommerce and Delivery Services; and Fulfillment and Logistics Services. The Postal Services segment provides delivery services, multichannel services and digital services, as well as corporate and consumer letters, multichannel messaging solutions, newspaper and magazine delivery, and addressed direct marketing services. The eCommerce and Delivery Services segment provides parcel delivery; and freight and other services. The Fulfillment and Logistics Services segment provides contract logistics and in-house logistics services. Posti Group Oyj was formerly known as Itella Oyj and changed its name to Posti Group Oyj in December 2014. The company was founded in 1638 and is based in Helsinki, Finland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Posti Group reported revenue of €1.4B in FY2025 versus €1.7B in FY2022, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was €23.5M in FY2025, compounding −9.5%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€1.4B
Latest YoY
−4.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.3%
Revenue −4.3%/yr
FY22 €1.7B
FY23 €1.6B
FY24 €1.5B
FY25 €1.4B
Net income −9.5%/yr
FY22 €31.7M
FY23 −€25.2M
FY24 €43.8M
FY25 €23.5M

POSTI screens 11% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Posti Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/POSTI

Peer Group

Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −11% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Revenue growth -1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 8.5% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.65× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.69× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.32× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 12.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.5× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 18 · sector 46
FUTURE 0 · sector 8
PAST 45 · sector 26
HEALTH 68 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 56

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $117.72 $104.58 -11%
FedEx Corporation FDX $314.69 $347.68 +10%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €57.22 €53.18 -7%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,660 kr 712.57 -57%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 209.90 CHF 147.92 -30%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $291.41 $133.80 -54%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥31.91 ¥48.64 +52%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $193.50 $86.56 -55%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $172.02 $115.95 -33%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$181.40 HK$241.93 +33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Posti Group (POSTI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €9.22 versus a price of €10.40, about −11% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of POSTI?
Our model-based fair value for Posti Group is €9.22 (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €10.40.
What is the quality score of POSTI?
Posti Group has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Posti Group (POSTI)?
Posti Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.4B (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of POSTI?
The net profit margin of Posti Group is about 2.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Posti Group pay a dividend?
Posti Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.70% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 19, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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