Posti Group (POSTI) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FI · Market cap €405M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +4.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 11% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (€6.45 to €11.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from €6.45 (bear) to €11.98 (bull), base €9.22. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 53/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (10 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range €7.50 – €10.46 · fair‑value band €6.45 – €11.98 · the €10.40 price screens above the €9.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Posti Group (POSTI) currently trades at €10.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.22, implying the stock looks roughly 11.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Posti Group generated revenue of €1.4B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue declined 1.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.3%. Net debt stands at €228M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €6.45 (bear case) to €11.98 (bull case); at €10.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -11%, POSTI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€37.84) versus Asset-Based (€4.58). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Posti Group Oyj operates as a distribution and logistics company in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Baltics, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Postal Services; eCommerce and Delivery Services; and Fulfillment and Logistics Services.
Full company description
Posti Group Oyj operates as a distribution and logistics company in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Baltics, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Postal Services; eCommerce and Delivery Services; and Fulfillment and Logistics Services. The Postal Services segment provides delivery services, multichannel services and digital services, as well as corporate and consumer letters, multichannel messaging solutions, newspaper and magazine delivery, and addressed direct marketing services. The eCommerce and Delivery Services segment provides parcel delivery; and freight and other services. The Fulfillment and Logistics Services segment provides contract logistics and in-house logistics services. Posti Group Oyj was formerly known as Itella Oyj and changed its name to Posti Group Oyj in December 2014. The company was founded in 1638 and is based in Helsinki, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Posti Group reported revenue of €1.4B in FY2025 versus €1.7B in FY2022, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was €23.5M in FY2025, compounding −9.5%/yr from FY2022.
POSTI screens 11% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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