Posti Group Oyj (POSTI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Posti Group Oyj €10.41, price €13.26, upside -21.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
11‑month range €7.50 – €13.60 · fair‑value band €7.28 – €15.23 · the €13.26 price screens above the €10.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Posti Group Oyj operates as a distribution and logistics company in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Baltics, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Postal Services; eCommerce and Delivery Services; and Fulfillment and Logistics Services.
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Posti Group Oyj operates as a distribution and logistics company in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Baltics, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Postal Services; eCommerce and Delivery Services; and Fulfillment and Logistics Services. The Postal Services segment provides delivery services, multichannel services and digital services, as well as corporate and consumer letters, multichannel messaging solutions, newspaper and magazine delivery, and addressed direct marketing services. The eCommerce and Delivery Services segment provides parcel delivery; and freight and other services. The Fulfillment and Logistics Services segment provides contract logistics and in-house logistics services. Posti Group Oyj was formerly known as Itella Oyj and changed its name to Posti Group Oyj in December 2014. The company was founded in 1638 and is based in Helsinki, Finland.
Stock analysis
Posti Group Oyj (POSTI) currently trades at €13.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.41, implying the stock looks roughly 27.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €37.84 per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the €13.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.58, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €7.28 (bear) to €15.23 (bull), the price of €13.26 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Posti Group Oyj reported revenue of €1.4B in FY2025 versus €1.7B in FY2022, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was €23.5M in FY2025, compounding −9.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €530M · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) €0.7400 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −21%, POSTI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €7.28Fair Value €10.41Bull €15.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.3%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 4%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.7% a year for the price and −0.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Posti Group Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/POSTI
Frequently asked questions
Is Posti Group Oyj (POSTI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.41 versus a price of €13.26, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of POSTI?
Our model-based fair value for Posti Group Oyj is €10.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €13.26.
What is the quality score of POSTI?
Posti Group Oyj has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.28, optimistic scenario €15.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Posti Group Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €10.41, about −21% upside versus a price of €13.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €7.28, optimistic scenario €15.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
Posti Group Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Posti Group Oyj pay a dividend?
Posti Group Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Posti Group Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by +13.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -4.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of POSTI use?
Our models discount Posti Group Oyj at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Posti Group Oyj that is +13.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Posti Group Oyj (POSTI) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Posti Group Oyj grew -4.3 % a year. The price currently implies +13.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Posti Group Oyj (+13.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.24 %: that much free cash flow Posti Group Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Posti Group Oyj it is €10.41 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €13.26. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Posti Group Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, POSTI trades above its calculated fair value: price €13.26, fair value €10.41, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of POSTI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€13.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.41). For Posti Group Oyj the two are €2.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Posti Group Oyj worth?
The market values Posti Group Oyj at about €530M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €13.26; our models calculate a fair value of €10.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about POSTI?
Our models span a range for Posti Group Oyj: cautious scenario €7.28, base €10.41, optimistic €15.23 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €13.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of POSTI?
Posti Group Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €10.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Posti Group Oyj (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 11.3%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is POSTI from its 52-week high?
Posti Group Oyj trades at €13.26, about 3% below its 52-week high of €13.60 and 77% above the low of €7.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Posti Group Oyj?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Posti Group Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €13.26, calculated fair value €10.41 (−21%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of POSTI calculated?
We run Posti Group Oyj through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €10.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Posti Group Oyj itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €13.26. Our model-based fair value is €10.41, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Posti Group Oyj right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€7.28 to €15.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Posti Group Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
The market capitalisation of Posti Group Oyj is €530M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Posti Group Oyj is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
Earnings per share at Posti Group Oyj are €0.7400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
The dividend yield of Posti Group Oyj is 6.3% (payout 114%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
The net margin of Posti Group Oyj is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Posti Group Oyj is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Posti Group Oyj is 3.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
The operating margin of Posti Group Oyj is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
Revenue at Posti Group Oyj is growing −1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Posti Group Oyj (POSTI)?
Earnings per share at Posti Group Oyj are growing +20.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Posti Group Oyj (POSTI) carry?
The net debt of Posti Group Oyj is €228M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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