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Tan Chong International Limited (T15) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tan Chong International Limited HK$3.86, price HK$1.63, upside +136.8%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · SG · ISIN BMG8667Z1023

TC Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Tan Chong International Limited

T15 · SG

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value HK$3.86 · Strongly undervalued (+136.8%)

!Quality 51/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.5 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 1.2% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓4.9% dividend yield · Sustainable

!Narrow moat 21/100

26 models, one by onewith weight and evidence Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 51/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.8613 – HK$1.95 · the HK$1.63 price screens below the HK$3.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Tan Chong International Limited, an investment holding company, provides vehicles and related spare parts in Singapore, Taiwan, the People's Republic of China, Japan, Thailand, and internationally.

Tan Chong International Limited, an investment holding company, provides vehicles and related spare parts in Singapore, Taiwan, the People's Republic of China, Japan, Thailand, and internationally. It operates through Motor Vehicle Distribution and Dealership; Heavy Commercial Vehicle and Industrial Equipment Distribution; Property Rentals and Development; Transportation; and Other Operations segments. The company distributes various models of Nissan and Subaru passenger cars; Nissan light commercial vehicles; heavy commercial vehicles and industrial equipment; and various brands of forklift trucks. It also engages in the development and rental of various investment properties; rental of machinery; general cargo business; and investment holding, auto leasing, capital and equipment financing, hire purchase financing, and provision of workshop services, and manufacturing of vehicles seats, as well as provides vehicle logistics services to vehicles manufacturers, as well as human resource management services to transportation business. Tan Chong International Limited was founded in 1957 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Tan Chong International Limited (T15) currently trades at HK$1.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.86, implying the stock looks roughly 57.8% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$4.47 per share, and 17 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$1.63 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.5900, and 5 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Tan Chong International Limited reported revenue of HK$12.0B in FY2025 versus HK$11.9B in FY2021, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$144M in FY2025, compounding −21.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$3.3B (≈ $418M) · P/E ratio 22.9 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 137%, T15 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$3.86 Fair Value HK$3.86 Bull HK$3.86

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$4.25 HK$5.48 HK$7.56 81

Growth DCF HK$4.38 HK$5.55 HK$7.36 80

Owner Earnings HK$2.10 HK$2.69 HK$3.66 77

All 22 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$4.25 HK$5.48 HK$7.56 81

Owner Earnings HK$2.10 HK$2.69 HK$3.66 77

5Y Revenue Exit HK$3.29 HK$4.37 HK$5.93 73

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.76 HK$6.91 HK$9.76 75

5Y P/E Exit HK$2.54 HK$3.07 HK$3.72 72

10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.63 HK$4.42 HK$5.23 68

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.50 HK$5.86 HK$7.28 70

10Y P/E Exit HK$3.27 HK$3.69 HK$4.05 65

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.4800 HK$0.5900 HK$0.6700 67

EPV HK$1.62 HK$1.82 HK$1.98 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$1.18 HK$1.57 HK$1.96 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.9100 HK$1.21 HK$1.52 58

P/B Multiple HK$0.9100 HK$1.21 HK$1.52 55

EV/EBIT HK$3.98 HK$5.24 HK$6.50 66

EV/EBITDA HK$5.98 HK$7.91 HK$9.84 67

EV/Revenue HK$2.74 HK$3.84 HK$4.93 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$2.92 HK$3.92 HK$5.85 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$4.38 HK$5.55 HK$7.36 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$3.29 HK$4.47 HK$5.96 73

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$3.83 HK$3.59 HK$3.44 76

ROIC Compounder HK$1.62 HK$1.82 HK$1.98 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.8300 HK$1.19 HK$1.54 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 21

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 38

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 59

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 40

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 86

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 78

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 38

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 46

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Revenue growth 1 year

−5.2%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−3.7%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−0.5%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.1% a year

Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.3%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.

+4.9%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+0.0%

Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 5%

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.5%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price

The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

−8.9%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect

n/a

No analyst forecast available.

After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.8% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 91 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 51 · Below median

Fair Value upside +20.6% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 2.5% · Below median

Return on assets 1.5% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 1.2% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 4.1% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −9.4% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 4.9% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.18× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.9× · Pricier than median

P/B 0.30× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.29× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 0.5× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 3.2× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Tan Chong International Limited · Fair Value
HK$3.86 +58%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/T15" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Tan Chong International Limited · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$3.86</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+58%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tan Chong International Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/T15

Frequently asked questions

Is Tan Chong International Limited (T15) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.86 versus a price of HK$1.63, about +137% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of T15?

Our model-based fair value for Tan Chong International Limited is HK$3.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.63.

What is the quality score of T15?

Tan Chong International Limited has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Tan Chong International Limited stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$3.86, about +137% upside versus a price of HK$1.63 (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

Tan Chong International Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$12.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

Does Tan Chong International Limited pay a dividend?

Tan Chong International Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.91% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).

What growth is priced into Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tan Chong International Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -8.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of T15 use?

Our models discount Tan Chong International Limited at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tan Chong International Limited that is -8.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Tan Chong International Limited (T15) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Tan Chong International Limited grew -0.5 % a year. The price currently implies -8.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Tan Chong International Limited (T15) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tan Chong International Limited (-8.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 27.23 %: that much free cash flow Tan Chong International Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tan Chong International Limited it is HK$3.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$1.63. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Tan Chong International Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, T15 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.63, fair value HK$3.86, a gap of about +137% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of T15?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.86). For Tan Chong International Limited the two are HK$2.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Tan Chong International Limited worth?

The market values Tan Chong International Limited at about HK$3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.63; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.86 per share.

What is the P/E ratio of T15?

Tan Chong International Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$3.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.2.

How solid is the balance sheet of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

Balance-sheet figures for Tan Chong International Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.5%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is T15 from its 52-week high?

Tan Chong International Limited trades at HK$1.63, about 17% below its 52-week high of HK$1.95 and 12% above the low of HK$1.45 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.86 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Tan Chong International Limited?

From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, D'Ieteren Group, Hotai Motor Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Tan Chong International Limited stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$1.63, calculated fair value HK$3.86 (+137%), Quality Score 51/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of T15 calculated?

We run Tan Chong International Limited through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tan Chong International Limited currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$1.63. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.86, about +137% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Tan Chong International Limited right now?

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.86). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Tan Chong International Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

The market capitalisation of Tan Chong International Limited is HK$3.3B (≈ $418M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Tan Chong International Limited is 0.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

Earnings per share at Tan Chong International Limited are HK$0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

The dividend yield of Tan Chong International Limited is 4.9% (payout 114%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

The net margin of Tan Chong International Limited is 1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Tan Chong International Limited is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tan Chong International Limited is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

The operating margin of Tan Chong International Limited is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

Revenue at Tan Chong International Limited is growing −9.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Tan Chong International Limited (T15)?

Earnings per share at Tan Chong International Limited are growing −74.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Tan Chong International Limited (T15) carry?

The net debt of Tan Chong International Limited is HK$5.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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