Transport Corporation (TCI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Transport Corporation stock ₹375, price ₹873, that is 57.0% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Transport Corporation of India Limited provides end to end integrated supply chain and logistics solutions in India. The company operates through Freight, Supply Chain Solutions, Seaways, and Energy divisions.
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It offers surface transport solutions, such as full truck load, less than truck load, over dimensional cargo, and project heavy haul.
In addition, the company's supply chain solutions comprise of supply chain network design, warehousing management, multimodal transportation, and inventory management services, as well as offers coastal shipping, container cargo movements, and transportation services.
Further, it provides logistics and supply chain solutions, including port logistics, control tower consultancy, inbound /outbound logistics, temperature-controlled cargo, liquid and gas bulk logistics, and rail, container movement, and streamlined logistics management services.
Transport Corporation of India Limited was founded in 1958 and is based in Gurugram, India.
Stock analysis
Transport Corporation (TCI) currently trades at ₹872.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹375.06, 57.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹1,025 per share, and 6 of the 25 models we run sit above the ₹872.85 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ₹64.65, and 19 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹310.90 (bear) to ₹525.06 (bull), the price of ₹872.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Transport Corporation reported revenue of ₹49.1B in FY2025 versus ₹32.6B in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹4.6B in FY2025, compounding +12.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹67.0B (≈ $706M) Small · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 1.45 · EPS (TTM) ₹58.25 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 19.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −57%, TCI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹310.90Fair Value ₹375.06Bull₹525.06
Price ₹872.85 · Downside -57.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹48.83 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+26.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.5% vs 18.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+72.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +65.3% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 209 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Transport Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TCI.BSE
Frequently asked questions
Is Transport Corporation (TCI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹375.06 versus a price of ₹872.85, about 57% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TCI?
Our model-based fair value for Transport Corporation is ₹375.06 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹872.85.
What is the quality score of TCI?
Transport Corporation has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transport Corporation (TCI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹375.06 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹310.90, optimistic scenario ₹525.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transport Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹375.06, about 57% lower versus a price of ₹872.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹310.90, optimistic scenario ₹525.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
Transport Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹47.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Transport Corporation pay a dividend?
Transport Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.00% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Transport Corporation (TCI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Transport Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +72.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.9 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TCI use?
Our models discount Transport Corporation at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Transport Corporation that is +72.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Transport Corporation (TCI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Transport Corporation grew +11.9 % a year. The price currently implies +72.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Transport Corporation (TCI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Transport Corporation (+72.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.46 %: that much free cash flow Transport Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transport Corporation it is ₹375.06 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of ₹872.85. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Transport Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, TCI trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹872.85, fair value ₹375.06, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹872.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹375.06). For Transport Corporation the two are ₹497.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transport Corporation worth?
The market values Transport Corporation at about ₹67.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is ₹872.85; our models calculate a fair value of ₹375.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCI?
Our models span a range for Transport Corporation: cautious scenario ₹310.90, base ₹375.06, optimistic ₹525.06 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price ₹872.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCI?
Transport Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹375.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 14.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Transport Corporation (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 19.6%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TCI from its 52-week high?
Transport Corporation trades at ₹872.85, about 27% below its 52-week high of ₹1,195 and 8% above the low of ₹806.75 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹375.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transport Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transport Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price ₹872.85, calculated fair value ₹375.06 (−57%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCI calculated?
We run Transport Corporation through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹375.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Transport Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was ₹872.85. Our model-based fair value is ₹375.06, about 57% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transport Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹525.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Transport Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
The market capitalisation of Transport Corporation is ₹67.0B (≈ $706M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transport Corporation is 1.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
Earnings per share at Transport Corporation are ₹58.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
The dividend yield of Transport Corporation is 1.0% (payout 15.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
The net margin of Transport Corporation is 9.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Transport Corporation is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transport Corporation is 12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transport Corporation (TCI)?
The operating margin of Transport Corporation is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transport Corporation (TCI)?
Revenue at Transport Corporation is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Transport Corporation (TCI)?
Earnings per share at Transport Corporation are growing +14.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Transport Corporation (TCI) carry?
The net debt of Transport Corporation is ₹1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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