ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of ULMA Construccion Polska SA PLN 43.81, price PLN 52.00, upside -15.8%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 45.27 PLN – 74.00 PLN · fair‑value band 30.32 PLN – 52.77 PLN · the 52.00 PLN price screens above the 43.81 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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ULMA Construccion Polska S.A. provides formwork and scaffolding solutions and services in Poland and internationally.
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ULMA Construccion Polska S.A. provides formwork and scaffolding solutions and services in Poland and internationally. The company rents and sells scaffoldings systems, which include frame and ringlock scaffolding for use in restoration, industrial, and construction sites; formwork systems, including wall, column, slab, climbing, tunnel, and bridge formwork; safety equipment; timber beams and plywood; and shoring systems. It offers construction services; and logistics, engineering and applications, onsite assistance, and equipment pre-assembly services; and ULMA Studio and Scaffmax scaffolding design software. The company was formerly known as BAUMA S.A. and changed its name to ULMA Construccion Polska S.A. in November 2006. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Brwinów, Poland. ULMA Construccion Polska S.A. is a subsidiary of ULMA C y E, S. Coop.
Stock analysis
ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM) currently trades at 52.00 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 43.81 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 18.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 53.30 PLN per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the 52.00 PLN price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 19.88 PLN, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 30.32 PLN (bear) to 52.77 PLN (bull), the price of 52.00 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ULMA Construccion Polska SA reported revenue of 246M PLN in FY2025 versus 210M PLN in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was 13.3M PLN in FY2025, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 273M PLN (≈ $71.1M) · P/E ratio 27.1 · P/S ratio 1.47 · EPS (TTM) 1.92 PLN · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −16%, ULM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 30.32 PLNFair Value 43.81 PLNBull 52.77 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.41 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12% vs 4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.0% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 93 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ULMA Construccion Polska SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ULM
Frequently asked questions
Is ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 43.81 PLN versus a price of 52.00 PLN, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ULM?
Our model-based fair value for ULMA Construccion Polska SA is 43.81 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 52.00 PLN.
What is the quality score of ULM?
ULMA Construccion Polska SA has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 43.81 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 30.32 PLN, optimistic scenario 52.77 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ULMA Construccion Polska SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 43.81 PLN, about −16% upside versus a price of 52.00 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 30.32 PLN, optimistic scenario 52.77 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
ULMA Construccion Polska SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 241M PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does ULMA Construccion Polska SA pay a dividend?
ULMA Construccion Polska SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ULMA Construccion Polska SA would have to grow free cash flow by +22.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ULM use?
Our models discount ULMA Construccion Polska SA at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ULMA Construccion Polska SA that is +22.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ULMA Construccion Polska SA grew +5.2 % a year. The price currently implies +22.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ULMA Construccion Polska SA (+22.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.48 %: that much free cash flow ULMA Construccion Polska SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ULMA Construccion Polska SA it is 43.81 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 52.00 PLN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ULMA Construccion Polska SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ULM trades above its calculated fair value: price 52.00 PLN, fair value 43.81 PLN, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ULM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (52.00 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (43.81 PLN). For ULMA Construccion Polska SA the two are 8.19 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ULMA Construccion Polska SA worth?
The market values ULMA Construccion Polska SA at about 273M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 52.00 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 43.81 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ULM?
Our models span a range for ULMA Construccion Polska SA: cautious scenario 30.32 PLN, base 43.81 PLN, optimistic 52.77 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 52.00 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ULM?
ULMA Construccion Polska SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 43.81 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 1.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
Balance-sheet figures for ULMA Construccion Polska SA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.0%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ULM from its 52-week high?
ULMA Construccion Polska SA trades at 52.00 PLN, about 20% below its 52-week high of 65.00 PLN and 2% above the low of 51.00 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 43.81 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ULMA Construccion Polska SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ULMA Construccion Polska SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 52.00 PLN, calculated fair value 43.81 PLN (−16%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ULM calculated?
We run ULMA Construccion Polska SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 43.81 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ULMA Construccion Polska SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 52.00 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 43.81 PLN, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ULMA Construccion Polska SA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM) come from?
Earnings per share at ULMA Construccion Polska SA grew +7.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.5 %, EBIT margin +4.4 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ULMA Construccion Polska SA
How large is the market capitalisation of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
The market capitalisation of ULMA Construccion Polska SA is 273M PLN (≈ $71.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ULMA Construccion Polska SA is 1.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
Earnings per share at ULMA Construccion Polska SA are 1.92 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
The dividend yield of ULMA Construccion Polska SA is 4.3% (payout 115%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
The net margin of ULMA Construccion Polska SA is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ULMA Construccion Polska SA is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ULMA Construccion Polska SA is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
The operating margin of ULMA Construccion Polska SA is −6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
Revenue at ULMA Construccion Polska SA is growing −8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM)?
Earnings per share at ULMA Construccion Polska SA are growing −3.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ULMA Construccion Polska SA (ULM) carry?
The net debt of ULMA Construccion Polska SA is 5.0M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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