Unitika Ltd (UNIKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Unitika Ltd $4.45, price $10.18, upside -56.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.48 – $24.90 · fair‑value band $3.38 – $5.92 · the $10.18 price screens above the $4.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Unitika Ltd. manufactures and sells polymers, performance materials, industrial fibers and textiles, and others in Japan and internationally.
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Unitika Ltd. manufactures and sells polymers, performance materials, industrial fibers and textiles, and others in Japan and internationally. The company offers polymers, such as nylon and polyester films; nylon, polyester, and polyarylate plastic products; polyester, nylon spunbonded, and cotton spunlace nonwoven fabrics; and biodegradable plastic materials. It also provides performance materials, such as activated carbon fibers, glass fabrics, glass beads, and porous plates, as well as biomass-based materials. In addition, the company offers fibers and textiles, such as garments, lifestyle materials, and bedding products, as well as terramac fibers. Unitika Ltd. was incorporated in 1889 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Stock analysis
Unitika Ltd (UNIKF) currently trades at $10.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.45, implying the stock looks roughly 128.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $24.01 per share, and 17 of the 22 models we run sit above the $10.18 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.67, and 5 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.38 (bear) to $5.92 (bull), the price of $10.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Unitika Ltd reported revenue of ¥119B in FY2026 versus ¥115B in FY2022, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥18.3B in FY2026, compounding +69.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $587M · P/E ratio 5.3 · P/S ratio 0.81 · EPS (TTM) $1.92 · Net margin 15.3% · Return on equity 51.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 588% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at −56%, UNIKF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.38Fair Value $4.45Bull $5.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9468 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−7.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.8% vs −11.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+78.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +75.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 708 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−56.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)51.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)15.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−30.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)5.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.70× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.78× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.3× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Unitika Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UNIKF
Frequently asked questions
Is Unitika Ltd (UNIKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.45 versus a price of $10.18, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UNIKF?
Our model-based fair value for Unitika Ltd is $4.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.18.
What is the quality score of UNIKF?
Unitika Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.38, optimistic scenario $5.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Unitika Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.45, about −56% upside versus a price of $10.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.38, optimistic scenario $5.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
Unitika Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥119B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Unitika Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +78.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UNIKF use?
Our models discount Unitika Ltd at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Unitika Ltd that is +78.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Unitika Ltd (UNIKF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Unitika Ltd grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +78.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Unitika Ltd (+78.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.37 %: that much free cash flow Unitika Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Unitika Ltd it is $4.45 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.18. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Unitika Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, UNIKF trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.18, fair value $4.45, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UNIKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.45). For Unitika Ltd the two are $5.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Unitika Ltd worth?
The market values Unitika Ltd at about $587M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.18; our models calculate a fair value of $4.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UNIKF?
Our models span a range for Unitika Ltd: cautious scenario $3.38, base $4.45, optimistic $5.92 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UNIKF?
Unitika Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Unitika Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 51.8%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UNIKF from its 52-week high?
Unitika Ltd trades at $10.18, about 59% below its 52-week high of $24.90 and 588% above the low of $1.48 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Unitika Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Unitika Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.18, calculated fair value $4.45 (−56%), Quality Score 48/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UNIKF calculated?
We run Unitika Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Unitika Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $10.18. Our model-based fair value is $4.45, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Unitika Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Unitika Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
The market capitalisation of Unitika Ltd is $587M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Unitika Ltd is 0.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
Earnings per share at Unitika Ltd are $1.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
The net margin of Unitika Ltd is 15.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Unitika Ltd is 51.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Unitika Ltd is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
The operating margin of Unitika Ltd is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
Revenue at Unitika Ltd is growing −30.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Unitika Ltd (UNIKF)?
Earnings per share at Unitika Ltd are growing +618% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Unitika Ltd (UNIKF) carry?
The net debt of Unitika Ltd is ¥9.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026