Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Vivara Participações S.A BRL 45.63, price BRL 22.31, upside +104.5%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$15.76 – R$35.34 · fair‑value band R$28.60 – R$78.04 · the R$22.31 price screens below the R$45.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Vivara Participações S.A. engages in the manufacture and sale of jewelry and other articles in Latin America. The company offers jewelry products, including rings, necklaces, alliances, toys, solitaires, earrings, chains, currents, pendants, and bracelets.
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Vivara Participações S.A. engages in the manufacture and sale of jewelry and other articles in Latin America. The company offers jewelry products, including rings, necklaces, alliances, toys, solitaires, earrings, chains, currents, pendants, and bracelets. It also provides watches; accessories, such as sunglasses, wallets and card holders, passport and watch holders, jewelry box, perfumes, cuff links, keychains, pens, and knives; and gift products comprising giftable kits, quiz, graduation, infantile, mother/grandmother, and customizable products. The company sells its products under the Vivara, Tag Heuer, Victorinox, Movado, Baume and Mercier, Bulova, Akium, Lacoste, Calvin Klein, Hugo Boss, Tommy Hilfiger, Olivia Burton, Festina, Adidas, Life By Vivara, Guess. Nautica, Porsche Design, Montblanc, and Festina brands. It offers its products through stores and kiosks, as well as through e-commerce. Vivara Participações S.A. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3) currently trades at R$22.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$45.63, implying the stock looks roughly 51.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$69.63 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$22.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$8.40, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$28.60 (bear) to R$78.04 (bull), the price of R$22.31 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vivara Participações S.A reported revenue of R$3.0B in FY2025 versus R$1.5B in FY2021, a compound +19.9%/yr. Reported net income was R$620M in FY2025, compounding +20.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$5.2B (≈ $1.0B) · P/E ratio 9.1 · P/S ratio 1.86 · EPS (TTM) R$2.45 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 20.5% · Return on equity 20.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 105%, VIVA3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$28.60Fair Value R$45.63Bull R$78.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$1.31 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+33.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18% vs 26%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 24%
2025 sits 68% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.4% a year for the price and +7.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Vivara Participações S.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Luxury Goods · 130 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+105% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$45.63 versus a price of R$22.31, about +105% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VIVA3?
Our model-based fair value for Vivara Participações S.A is R$45.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$22.31.
What is the quality score of VIVA3?
Vivara Participações S.A has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$45.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$28.60, optimistic scenario R$78.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vivara Participações S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$45.63, about +105% upside versus a price of R$22.31 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$28.60, optimistic scenario R$78.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
Vivara Participações S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$3.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Vivara Participações S.A pay a dividend?
Vivara Participações S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vivara Participações S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +5.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VIVA3 use?
Our models discount Vivara Participações S.A at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vivara Participações S.A that is +5.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vivara Participações S.A grew +23.6 % a year. The price currently implies +5.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vivara Participações S.A (+5.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.61 %: that much free cash flow Vivara Participações S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vivara Participações S.A it is R$45.63 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of R$22.31. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vivara Participações S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VIVA3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$22.31, fair value R$45.63, a gap of about +105% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VIVA3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$22.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$45.63). For Vivara Participações S.A the two are R$23.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vivara Participações S.A worth?
The market values Vivara Participações S.A at about R$5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is R$22.31; our models calculate a fair value of R$45.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VIVA3?
Our models span a range for Vivara Participações S.A: cautious scenario R$28.60, base R$45.63, optimistic R$78.04 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price R$22.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VIVA3?
Vivara Participações S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$45.63 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vivara Participações S.A (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 20.8%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VIVA3 from its 52-week high?
Vivara Participações S.A trades at R$22.31, about 37% below its 52-week high of R$35.34 and 9% above the low of R$20.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$45.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vivara Participações S.A?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Hermès International Société en commandite par actions, Compagnie Financière Richemont SA, Christian Dior SE, Kering SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vivara Participações S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price R$22.31, calculated fair value R$45.63 (+105%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VIVA3 calculated?
We run Vivara Participações S.A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$45.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Vivara Participações S.A currently trades 105 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R$22.31. Our model-based fair value is R$45.63, about +105% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vivara Participações S.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$28.60). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (R$28.60 to R$78.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Vivara Participações S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
The market capitalisation of Vivara Participações S.A is R$5.2B (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vivara Participações S.A is 1.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
Earnings per share at Vivara Participações S.A are R$2.45 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
The dividend yield of Vivara Participações S.A is 3.1% (payout 28.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
The net margin of Vivara Participações S.A is 20.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vivara Participações S.A is 20.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vivara Participações S.A is 13.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
The operating margin of Vivara Participações S.A is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
Revenue at Vivara Participações S.A is growing +10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3)?
Earnings per share at Vivara Participações S.A are growing −29.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vivara Participações S.A (VIVA3) carry?
The net debt of Vivara Participações S.A is R$863M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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