Yalla Group (YALA) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $780M
Yalla Group
YALA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 25, 2026, revised from $19.53 to $15.63 (−20.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +1.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 185% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.03). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($12.03 to $27.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.08 – $21.80 · fair‑value band $12.03 – $27.11 · the $5.48 price screens below the $15.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Yalla Group (YALA) currently trades at $5.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.63, implying the stock looks roughly 185.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Yalla Group generated revenue of $337M at a net margin of 42.0%. Revenue declined 5.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $527M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.03 (bear case) to $27.11 (bull case); at $5.48, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at 185%, YALA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($29.70) versus Asset-Based ($4.27). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Yalla Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates a social networking and gaming platform in the Middle East and North Africa region. It offers mobile applications, including Yalla, a voice-centric group chat platform; and Yalla Ludo, a casual gaming application.
Full company description
Yalla Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates a social networking and gaming platform in the Middle East and North Africa region. It offers mobile applications, including Yalla, a voice-centric group chat platform; and Yalla Ludo, a casual gaming application. The company's platform provides group chatting and games services; and consume virtual currencies to purchase virtual items, as well as provides upgrade services. It has operations in United Arab Emirates, Mainland China, Hongkong, Cayman Islands, Saudia Arabia, and Singapore countries. The company was formerly known as FYXTech Corporation. Yalla Group Limited was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Yalla Group reported revenue of $342M in FY2025 versus $273M in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $150M in FY2025, compounding +16.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Yalla (YALA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Yalla Group authorizes new $150 million share repurchase program
- Yalla Non-GAAP EPS of $0.22, revenue of $84.56M beats by $0.26M
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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