GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of GXO Logistics Inc stock $23.19, price $55.18, that is 58.0% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.53 – $103.57 · fair‑value band $9.52 – $28.28 · the $55.18 price screens above the $23.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services worldwide. It provides warehousing and distribution, order fulfilment, e-commerce, reverse logistics, and other supply chain services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated in 1,043 facilities.
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The company serves a range of customers in the e-commerce, omnichannel retail, technology and consumer electronics, food and beverage, industrial and manufacturing, consumer packaged goods, and other industries.
GXO Logistics, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) currently trades at $55.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.19, 58% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $31.27 per share, and 2 of the 19 models we run sit above the $55.18 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $5.38, and 17 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.52 (bear) to $28.28 (bull), the price of $55.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
GXO Logistics Inc reported revenue of $13.2B in FY2025 versus $7.9B in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $32.0M in FY2025, compounding −32.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.4B Mid · P/E ratio 46.8 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) $1.18 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −58%, GXO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.60 to $87.91). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$9.52Fair Value $23.19Bull$28.28
Price $55.18 · Downside -58.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.01 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV$9.57$12.99$15.8474
FCF DCF$5.80$21.53$46.4773
Growth DCF$5.33$18.80$38.6672
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$5.80$21.53$46.4773
Owner Earnings$0.3000$11.98$30.5165
5Y Revenue Exit$13.62$39.13$74.7468
5Y EBITDA Exit$36.67$87.91$154.4471
5Y P/E Exitn/an/a$4.1268
10Y Revenue Exit$9.27$31.27$66.7161
10Y EBITDA Exit$24.38$64.36$129.1163
10Y P/E Exitn/a$4.24$11.4261
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$1.93$9.78$13.5164
Lynch FV$2.66$3.80$4.9461
PEG = 1.0$2.66$3.80$4.9457
EPV$9.57$12.99$15.8474
Multiples
P/E Multiple$4.46$5.95$7.4363
P/S Multiple$3.61$4.81$6.0258
EV/EBITn/a$1.60>$6.4061
EV/EBITDA$13.76$39.12$64.4962
EV/Revenuen/an/a$1.2350
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$5.33$18.80$38.6672
Economic Profit
Residual Income$14.56$15.35$16.9471
ROIC Compounder$9.57$12.99$15.8472
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$4.03$5.75$7.4867
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyTodd C CooperDirector6,000 shares at $50.59$303,540Nov 28, 2025
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
’18
’19
’20
’21
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’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−21.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 3%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.8% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business secures long-term contracts in specialized logistics and expands into aerospace yet shows thin margins that point to a limited competitive moat.
Main risk: Amazon's launch of standardized third-party supply chain and warehousing services could take e-commerce and consumer customers from GXO or force lower prices on its contract logistics offerings.
Bull case: GXO could leverage its expertise in complex bespoke contracts for aerospace and defense clients together with its robotics and GXO IQ platform to win more long-term outsourcing deals and widen its lead over standardized rivals.
Bear case: If Amazon captures more consumer and retail logistics volume with its network access model, GXO might lose key contracts, face sustained margin pressure in its largest segment and struggle to scale automation investments profitably.
GXO has locked in a ten-year European logistics contract with Columbia Sportswear and named new leadership to expand its aerospace and defense vertical. These steps underscore its bet on complex, long-term contracts, yet our models see the stock as overvalued amid the push for better margins and cash flow conversion. Will automation and the labor management rollout lift productivity enough to offset integration and labor risks, or will operational hurdles limit the gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks
P/B2.14× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.19 versus a price of $55.18, about 58% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GXO?
Our model-based fair value for GXO Logistics Inc is $23.19 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $55.18.
What is the quality score of GXO?
GXO Logistics Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.19 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.52, optimistic scenario $28.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GXO Logistics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.19, about 58% lower versus a price of $55.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.52, optimistic scenario $28.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
GXO Logistics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GXO Logistics Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +40.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GXO use?
Our models discount GXO Logistics Inc at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.54, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GXO Logistics Inc that is +40.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at GXO Logistics Inc grew +16.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +40.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GXO Logistics Inc (+40.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.72 %: that much free cash flow GXO Logistics Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GXO Logistics Inc it is $23.19 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $55.18. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is GXO Logistics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GXO trades above its calculated fair value: price $55.18, fair value $23.19, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GXO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($55.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.19). For GXO Logistics Inc the two are $31.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GXO Logistics Inc worth?
The market values GXO Logistics Inc at about $6.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $55.18; our models calculate a fair value of $23.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GXO?
Our models span a range for GXO Logistics Inc: cautious scenario $9.52, base $23.19, optimistic $28.28 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $55.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GXO?
GXO Logistics Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.19 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 38.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
What is the PEG ratio of GXO?
The PEG ratio of GXO Logistics Inc is 1.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Balance-sheet figures for GXO Logistics Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 4.7%, debt of 0.88 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GXO from its 52-week high?
GXO Logistics Inc trades at $55.18, about 16% below its 52-week high of $65.59 and 25% above the low of $44.17 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GXO Logistics Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GXO Logistics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $55.18, calculated fair value $23.19 (−58%), Quality Score 50/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GXO calculated?
We run GXO Logistics Inc through 21 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $23.19 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. GXO Logistics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $55.18. Our model-based fair value is $23.19, about 58% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GXO Logistics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($9.52 to $28.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of GXO Logistics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The market capitalisation of GXO Logistics Inc is $6.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GXO Logistics Inc is 0.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Earnings per share at GXO Logistics Inc are $1.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The net margin of GXO Logistics Inc is 1.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GXO Logistics Inc is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GXO Logistics Inc is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The operating margin of GXO Logistics Inc is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Revenue at GXO Logistics Inc is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Earnings per share at GXO Logistics Inc are growing +9.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) carry?
The net debt of GXO Logistics Inc is $7.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 64.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026