GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of GXO Logistics Inc $10.09, price $45.23, upside -77.7%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $10.09 · Strongly overvalued (−78%)
!Quality 44/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +16.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(2/14)
!Narrow moat30/100
!Insider activity30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.53 – $103.57 · fair‑value band $7.82 – $19.23 · the $45.23 price screens above the $10.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services worldwide. It provides warehousing and distribution, order fulfilment, e-commerce, reverse logistics, and other supply chain services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated in 1,043 facilities.
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GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services worldwide. It provides warehousing and distribution, order fulfilment, e-commerce, reverse logistics, and other supply chain services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated in 1,043 facilities. The company serves a range of customers in the e-commerce, omnichannel retail, technology and consumer electronics, food and beverage, industrial and manufacturing, consumer packaged goods, and other industries. GXO Logistics, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) currently trades at $45.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.09, implying the stock looks roughly 348.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $28.01 per share, and 1 of the 21 models we run sit above the $45.23 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.73, and 20 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $7.82 (bear) to $19.23 (bull), the price of $45.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
GXO Logistics Inc reported revenue of $13.2B in FY2025 versus $7.9B in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $32.0M in FY2025, compounding −32.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.2B · P/E ratio 40.4 · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) $1.12 · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at −78%, GXO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.82Fair Value $10.09Bull $19.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8193 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−21.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 3%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
P/B2.08× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.46× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF56,530.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.5× · Pricier than median
PEG1.46× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)54· sector 8
PAST (return on equity)18· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)56· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 62
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.09 versus a price of $45.23, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GXO?
Our model-based fair value for GXO Logistics Inc is $10.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $45.23.
What is the quality score of GXO?
GXO Logistics Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.82, optimistic scenario $19.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GXO Logistics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.09, about −78% upside versus a price of $45.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.82, optimistic scenario $19.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
GXO Logistics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GXO Logistics Inc it is $10.09 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $45.23. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GXO Logistics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GXO trades above its calculated fair value: price $45.23, fair value $10.09, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GXO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($45.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.09). For GXO Logistics Inc the two are $35.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GXO Logistics Inc worth?
The market values GXO Logistics Inc at about $6.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $45.23; our models calculate a fair value of $10.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GXO?
Our models span a range for GXO Logistics Inc: cautious scenario $7.82, base $10.09, optimistic $19.23 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $45.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GXO?
GXO Logistics Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.09 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 2.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
What is the PEG ratio of GXO?
The PEG ratio of GXO Logistics Inc is 1.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Balance-sheet figures for GXO Logistics Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.6%, debt of 0.88 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GXO from its 52-week high?
GXO Logistics Inc trades at $45.23, about 31% below its 52-week high of $65.59 and at the low of $45.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GXO Logistics Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GXO Logistics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $45.23, calculated fair value $10.09 (−78%), Quality Score 44/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GXO calculated?
We run GXO Logistics Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. GXO Logistics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $45.23. Our model-based fair value is $10.09, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GXO Logistics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($7.82 to $19.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of GXO Logistics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The market capitalisation of GXO Logistics Inc is $6.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GXO Logistics Inc is 0.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Earnings per share at GXO Logistics Inc are $1.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The net margin of GXO Logistics Inc is 0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GXO Logistics Inc is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GXO Logistics Inc is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
The operating margin of GXO Logistics Inc is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Revenue at GXO Logistics Inc is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)?
Earnings per share at GXO Logistics Inc are growing −55.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) generate?
The free cash flow of GXO Logistics Inc is $110K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) carry?
The net debt of GXO Logistics Inc is $7.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026