GXO Logistics, Inc (GXO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $6.2B
GXO Logistics, Inc
GXO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $5.65 to $10.09 (+78.5%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −3.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 79% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($7.07 to $13.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.53 – $103.57 · fair‑value band $7.07 – $13.12 · the $48.23 price screens above the $10.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
GXO Logistics, Inc (GXO) currently trades at $48.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.09, implying the stock looks roughly 79.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, GXO Logistics, Inc generated revenue of $13.5B at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.6%. Net debt stands at $7.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.07 (bear case) to $13.12 (bull case); at $48.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -79%, GXO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($19.47) versus Dividend Discount ($2.10). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services worldwide. It provides warehousing and distribution, order fulfilment, e-commerce, reverse logistics, and other supply chain services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated in 1,043 facilities.
Full company description
GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services worldwide. It provides warehousing and distribution, order fulfilment, e-commerce, reverse logistics, and other supply chain services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated in 1,043 facilities. The company serves a range of customers in the e-commerce, omnichannel retail, technology and consumer electronics, food and beverage, industrial and manufacturing, consumer packaged goods, and other industries. GXO Logistics, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GXO Logistics, Inc reported revenue of $13.2B in FY2025 versus $7.9B in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $32.0M in FY2025, compounding −32.4%/yr from FY2021.
GXO screens 79% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- DP World baut sein Logistikgeschäft in Großbritannien durch die Übernahme von sechs britischen Lebensmittelstandorten von GXO aus
- DP World développe ses activités logistiques au Royaume-Uni en reprenant six sites de GXO dédiés au secteur alimentaire
- GXO Logistics CEO Patrick Kelleher: What Wall Street is missing about the stock
- DP World Grows UK Logistics Operations With Transfer of Six UK Grocery Sites From GXO
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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