J&T Global Express Ltd (1519) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of J&T Global Express Ltd stock HK$6.39, price HK$9.71, that is 34.2% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Our calculation puts a fair price 34% below what the stock costs today.
Generates free cash flow
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +40% vs. a year ago.
Quality 48/100
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +51.3 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 2.5% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Fair value HK$6.39 · Overvalued (−34.2%)
Trails peers(3/15)
Narrow moat36/100
⟳ Cyclical
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Focus on heavy network investments and fuel-cost pressures after latest update🚩China safety probe over franchise network🚩Loss of volume to Shopee’s SPX logistics
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
36‑month range HK$4.68 – HK$16.38 · fair‑value band HK$4.47 – HK$8.31 · the HK$9.71 price screens above the HK$6.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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J&T Global Express Limited, an investment holding company, offers integrated express delivery services in the People's Republic of China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Mexico, Brazil, and Egypt.
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The company offers parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, dispatching services, and other related network management services; network services consist of system support and training, and general network arrangement and oversight services; and cash on delivery services.
It also provides cross-border services, including cargo or parcel collection, transportation and warehousing, customs clearances, and other relevant services; and sells accessories, such as J&T-branded packing supplies and apparel. In addition, the company offers courier services.
It serves network partners, e-commerce platforms, enterprise and individual customers, regional operating entities, and freight forwarders. J&T Global Express Limited was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
J&T Global Express Ltd (1519) currently trades at HK$9.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.39, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$13.45 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$9.71 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.25, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$4.47 (bear) to HK$8.31 (bull), the price of HK$9.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
J&T Global Express Ltd reported revenue of $12.2B in FY2025 versus $4.9B in FY2021, a compound +25.9%/yr. Reported net income was $199M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$90.9B (≈ $11.6B) Large · P/E ratio 29.1 · P/S ratio 0.47 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 11.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −34%, 1519 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$4.47Fair Value HK$6.39BullHK$8.31
Price HK$9.71 · Downside -34.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−50.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−50.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−40% → 4%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.0% a year for the price and +14.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (49 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Record parcel volumes with accelerating growth in newer markets form the main strength, while thin margins and persistently low returns on capital from high network investments remain the key weakness.
Main risk: China's postal regulator has opened a formal investigation into J&T Express for repeated safety failures and accidents at franchise sites, which could lead to penalties, higher compliance costs and tighter oversight in its largest market.
J&T has posted record parcel volumes with accelerating growth in newer markets. Yet after the latest update investors zeroed in on the heavy ongoing network investments and fuel-cost pressures that could limit margin gains. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the push into emerging markets deliver durable profitability or keep capital needs elevated?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "J&T Global Express Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1519
Frequently asked questions
Is J&T Global Express Ltd (1519) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$6.39 versus a price of HK$9.71, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1519?
Our model-based fair value for J&T Global Express Ltd is HK$6.39 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$9.71.
What is the quality score of 1519?
J&T Global Express Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$6.39 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$4.47, optimistic scenario HK$8.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the J&T Global Express Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$6.39, about 34% lower versus a price of HK$9.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$4.47, optimistic scenario HK$8.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
J&T Global Express Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does J&T Global Express Ltd pay a dividend?
J&T Global Express Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.26% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
J&T Global Express Ltd has a dividend yield of 0.3%.
What growth is priced into J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, J&T Global Express Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +51.3 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1519 use?
Our models discount J&T Global Express Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.95, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For J&T Global Express Ltd that is +12.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has J&T Global Express Ltd (1519) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at J&T Global Express Ltd grew +51.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +12.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into J&T Global Express Ltd (+12.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.26 %: that much free cash flow J&T Global Express Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For J&T Global Express Ltd it is HK$6.39 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of HK$9.71. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is J&T Global Express Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 1519 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$9.71, fair value HK$6.39, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1519?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$9.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$6.39). For J&T Global Express Ltd the two are HK$3.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is J&T Global Express Ltd worth?
The market values J&T Global Express Ltd at about HK$90.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is HK$9.71; our models calculate a fair value of HK$6.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1519?
Our models span a range for J&T Global Express Ltd: cautious scenario HK$4.47, base HK$6.39, optimistic HK$8.31 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price HK$9.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1519?
J&T Global Express Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.1 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$6.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 3.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 1519?
The PEG ratio of J&T Global Express Ltd is 1.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
Balance-sheet figures for J&T Global Express Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 11.8%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1519 from its 52-week high?
J&T Global Express Ltd trades at HK$9.71, about 19% below its 52-week high of HK$12.00 and 20% above the low of HK$8.08 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$6.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to J&T Global Express Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is J&T Global Express Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price HK$9.71, calculated fair value HK$6.39 (−34%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1519 calculated?
We run J&T Global Express Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$6.39 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. J&T Global Express Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$9.71. Our model-based fair value is HK$6.39, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with J&T Global Express Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$8.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (HK$4.47 to HK$8.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of J&T Global Express Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
The market capitalisation of J&T Global Express Ltd is HK$90.9B (≈ $11.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
The price-to-sales ratio of J&T Global Express Ltd is 0.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
The dividend yield of J&T Global Express Ltd is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
The net margin of J&T Global Express Ltd is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
The return on equity (ROE) of J&T Global Express Ltd is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of J&T Global Express Ltd is −13.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
The operating margin of J&T Global Express Ltd is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
Revenue at J&T Global Express Ltd is growing +39.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at J&T Global Express Ltd (1519)?
Earnings per share at J&T Global Express Ltd are growing +210% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does J&T Global Express Ltd (1519) carry?
The net debt of J&T Global Express Ltd is $766M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026