Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd stock ¥14.16, price ¥13.56, upside +4.4%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.53 – ¥34.54 · fair‑value band ¥9.91 – ¥18.40 · the ¥13.56 price screens below the ¥14.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co., Ltd. produces and sells lithium batteries, carbon, and ceramic materials in China and internationally.
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The company offers solid state battery materials, such as silicon-carbon anode, single walled carbon nanotube powder/slurry, and solid-state electrolyte; AI intelligent computing products; carbon materials, including single walled carbon, Oligowalled carbon, and multi-walled nanotube powder and conductive pastes, as well as silicon carbon negative electrode; lithium battery materials, such as triple precursor body and cobalt salts; and ceramic materials.
Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2007 and is based in Enping, China.
Stock analysis
Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409) currently trades at ¥13.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.16, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥21.65 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥13.56 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.75, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥9.91 (bear) to ¥18.40 (bull), the price of ¥13.56 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 8.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 6.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 507M CNY in FY2025, compounding −2.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 10.6B CNY (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/E ratio 20.5 · P/S ratio 1.05 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6600 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 4%, 300409 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥9.91Fair Value ¥14.16Bull¥18.40
Price ¥13.56 · Upside +4.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3505 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥14.43¥21.06¥38.6178
Growth DCF¥13.72¥22.15¥36.4677
Residual Income¥7.57¥7.66¥8.1176
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥14.43¥21.06¥38.6178
Owner Earnings¥9.65¥18.18¥33.5173
5Y Revenue Exit¥11.83¥19.74¥35.0970
5Y EBITDA Exit¥12.88¥21.98¥38.6072
5Y P/E Exit¥10.98¥19.56¥30.3769
10Y Revenue Exit¥12.29¥21.89¥32.1366
10Y EBITDA Exit¥13.23¥23.66¥42.1666
10Y P/E Exit¥12.05¥20.45¥34.2862
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥4.41¥30.73¥43.1263
Lynch FV¥9.36¥13.37¥17.3961
PEG = 1.0¥9.36¥13.37¥17.3957
EPV¥8.00¥8.86¥9.5774
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥2.31¥4.02¥5.3668
DDM Multi-Stage¥2.31¥3.74¥4.3167
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥8.26¥11.01¥13.7763
P/S Multiple¥8.26¥11.01¥13.7758
P/B Multiple¥17.44¥23.26¥29.0755
EV/EBIT¥8.16¥11.61¥15.0665
EV/EBITDA¥9.07¥12.83¥16.5967
EV/Revenue¥6.78¥10.62¥14.4753
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥1.16¥1.75¥2.1955
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥13.72¥22.15¥36.4677
Rev-Margin DCF¥11.83¥21.14¥35.0970
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥7.57¥7.66¥8.1176
ROIC Compounder¥8.00¥8.86¥9.5772
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥11.66¥16.66¥21.6567
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +30.9% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
≈ +28.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +27.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 37.6% / 9.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 10%
2025 sits 210% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.13 per share, median 0.33 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 727 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+4.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.3% · Below median
Return on assets3.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)7.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)36.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.32× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.05× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.2× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300409
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥14.16 versus a price of ¥13.56, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 300409?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd is ¥14.16 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥13.56.
What is the quality score of 300409?
Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥14.16 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.91, optimistic scenario ¥18.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥14.16, about +4% upside versus a price of ¥13.56 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥9.91, optimistic scenario ¥18.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.25 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2015. The payout ratio is 37.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.82 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.7 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300409 use?
Our models discount Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.93, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd that is +9.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd grew +19.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (+9.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.04 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd it is ¥14.16 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥13.56. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 300409 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥13.56, fair value ¥14.16, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300409?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥13.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥14.16). For Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥0.6010 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd at about 10.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥13.56; our models calculate a fair value of ¥14.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300409?
Our models span a range for Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥9.91, base ¥14.16, optimistic ¥18.40 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥13.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300409?
Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥14.16 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 50.4. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300409 from its 52-week high?
Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥13.56, about 61% below its 52-week high of ¥34.54 and 5% above the low of ¥12.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥14.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥13.56, calculated fair value ¥14.16 (+4%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300409 calculated?
We run Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥14.16 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd currently trades 4% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥13.56. Our model-based fair value is ¥14.16, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (¥9.91 to ¥18.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd grew +0.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +26.8 %, EBIT margin −19.3 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
The market capitalisation of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd is 10.6B CNY (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd is 1.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd are ¥0.6600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
The dividend yield of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd is 1.8% (payout 37.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
The net margin of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd is 3.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
The operating margin of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
Revenue at Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd is growing +36.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd are growing −94.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd (300409) carry?
The net debt of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co Ltd is 1.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026