Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. stock ¥14.05, price ¥8.61, upside +63.2%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.59 – ¥20.33 · fair‑value band ¥11.42 – ¥16.69 · the ¥8.61 price screens below the ¥14.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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The company offers basic segmented logistics services, such as sea freight services, land transport services, air freight services, railway transport services, customs affairs services, and warehouse services; one-stop contract logistics services for automobile industry, fresh and perishable goods, expo logistics, project and bulk logistics, cross-border e-commerce; lean supply chain logistics services for the semiconductor industry; and supply chain trade services.
It also provides client-oriented logistics services, including door-door delivery, customs affairs management, and warehousing and distribution to various industries, including electronics, semiconductors, overseas projects, automobiles, cross-border e-commerce, fresh food, fashion consumer goods, etc.
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Qingdao, China.
Stock analysis
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) currently trades at ¥8.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.05, implying the stock looks roughly 39% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥11.63 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥8.61 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at ¥1.72, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥11.42 (bear) to ¥16.69 (bull), the price of ¥8.61 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 8.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 11.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −7.5%/yr. Reported net income was 26.1M CNY in FY2025, compounding −51.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.4B CNY (≈ $361M) Small · P/E ratio 41.0 · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.2100 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 63%, 603836 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥11.42Fair Value ¥14.05Bull¥16.69
Price ¥8.61 · Upside +63.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0575 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥9.43¥13.99¥21.0677
Growth DCF¥9.33¥13.37¥19.2876
Owner Earnings¥7.66¥11.01¥16.2174
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥9.43¥13.99¥21.0677
Owner Earnings¥7.66¥11.01¥16.2174
5Y Revenue Exit¥7.24¥9.88¥13.3471
5Y EBITDA Exit¥9.09¥13.67¥19.3573
5Y P/E Exit¥5.99¥7.32¥8.7270
10Y Revenue Exit¥7.90¥10.56¥14.4265
10Y EBITDA Exit¥9.13¥13.13¥19.0766
10Y P/E Exit¥7.23¥8.82¥10.8463
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥0.6200¥2.85¥3.9262
Lynch FV¥0.7500¥1.07¥1.3959
PEG = 1.0¥0.7500¥1.07¥1.3955
EPV¥4.38¥4.61¥4.8074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥1.21¥2.22¥3.1165
DDM Multi-Stage¥1.21¥2.00¥2.3665
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥1.44¥1.92¥2.4063
P/S Multiple¥1.16¥1.55¥1.9458
P/B Multiple¥18.95¥25.26¥31.5855
EV/EBIT¥7.56¥9.12¥10.6966
EV/EBITDA¥9.63¥11.88¥14.1467
EV/Revenue¥6.22¥7.65¥9.0954
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥2.80¥4.24¥5.3054
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥9.33¥13.37¥19.2876
Rev-Margin DCF¥7.24¥9.89¥13.3171
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥3.67¥3.80¥4.0574
ROIC Compounder¥4.38¥4.61¥4.8070
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥1.20¥1.72¥2.2365
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−34.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 1%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.2% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks
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Is Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥14.05 versus a price of ¥8.61, about +63% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 603836?
Our model-based fair value for Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is ¥14.05 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.61.
What is the quality score of 603836?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥14.05 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥11.42, optimistic scenario ¥16.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥14.05, about +63% upside versus a price of ¥8.61 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥11.42, optimistic scenario ¥16.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.66% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. pays a dividend of ¥0.143 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 22, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. The payout ratio is 68.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.99 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by -14.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603836 use?
Our models discount Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. that is -14.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -14.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (-14.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.25 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. it is ¥14.05 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥8.61. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 603836 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥8.61, fair value ¥14.05, a gap of about +63% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603836?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥14.05). For Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. the two are ¥5.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. at about 2.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.61; our models calculate a fair value of ¥14.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603836?
Our models span a range for Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥11.42, base ¥14.05, optimistic ¥16.69 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥8.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603836?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥14.05 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 3.5%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603836 from its 52-week high?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. trades at ¥8.61, about 24% below its 52-week high of ¥11.36 and 12% above the low of ¥7.67 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥14.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥8.61, calculated fair value ¥14.05 (+63%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603836 calculated?
We run Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥14.05 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. currently trades 39% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥8.61. Our model-based fair value is ¥14.05, about +63% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥11.42). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The market capitalisation of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 2.4B CNY (≈ $361M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Earnings per share at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. are ¥0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The dividend yield of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 1.7% (payout 68.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The net margin of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 0.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The operating margin of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Revenue at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is growing +39.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Earnings per share at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. are growing +63.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) hold?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. holds more cash than debt, 821M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026