Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. ¥7.96, price ¥9.50, upside -16.2%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Bondex Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. provides logistics services in China. The company offers basic segmented logistics services, such as sea freight services, land transport services, air freight services, railway transport services, customs affairs services, and warehouse services; one-stop contract logistics services for automobile industry, fresh and perishable goods, expo logistics, project and bulk logistics, cross-border e-commerce; lean supply chain logistics services for the semiconductor industry; and supply chain trade services. It also provides client-oriented logistics services, including door-door delivery, customs affairs management, and warehousing and distribution to various industries, including electronics, semiconductors, overseas projects, automobiles, cross-border e-commerce, fresh food, fashion consumer goods, etc. Bondex Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Qingdao, China.
Stock analysis
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) currently trades at ¥9.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.96, implying the stock looks roughly 19.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥10.04 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥9.50 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.07, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 8.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 11.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −7.5%/yr. Reported net income was 26.1M CNY in FY2025, compounding −51.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.6B CNY (≈ $382M) · P/E ratio 55.9 · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1700 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −16%, 603836 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥7.96Fair Value ¥7.96Bull ¥7.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0198 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−34.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 1%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.3% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
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Is Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.96 versus a price of ¥9.50, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603836?
Our model-based fair value for Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is ¥7.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.50.
What is the quality score of 603836?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.96, about −16% upside versus a price of ¥9.50 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by -10.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603836 use?
Our models discount Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. that is -10.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies -10.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (-10.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.38 %: that much free cash flow Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. it is ¥7.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥9.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603836 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥9.50, fair value ¥7.96, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603836?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.96). For Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. the two are ¥1.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. at about 2.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.50; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.96 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of 603836?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 55.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603836 from its 52-week high?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. trades at ¥9.50, about 16% below its 52-week high of ¥11.36 and 24% above the low of ¥7.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥9.50, calculated fair value ¥7.96 (−16%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603836 calculated?
We run Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥9.50. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.96, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The market capitalisation of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 2.6B CNY (≈ $382M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 0.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Earnings per share at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. are ¥0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 55.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The dividend yield of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 1.5% (payout 84.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The net margin of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
The operating margin of Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Revenue at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. is growing −3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836)?
Earnings per share at Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. are growing +44.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. (603836) hold?
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co. Ltd. holds more cash than debt, 821M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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