United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of United Parcel Service Inc stock $107, price $114, that is 6.2% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $77.49 – $184.14 · fair‑value band $62.30 – $164.10 · the $114.31 price screens above the $107.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package.
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The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services.
The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia.
The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments.
It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) currently trades at $114.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $107.24, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $126.41 per share, and 9 of the 25 models we run sit above the $114.31 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $48.11, and 16 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $62.30 (bear) to $164.10 (bull), the price of $114.31 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
United Parcel Service Inc reported revenue of $88.7B in FY2025 versus $97.2B in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was $5.6B in FY2025, compounding −18.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $97.3B Large · P/E ratio 20.1 · P/S ratio 1.07 · EPS (TTM) $5.38 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 28.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −6%, UPS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$62.30Fair Value $107.24Bull$164.10
Price $114.31 · Downside -6.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $876,628 and none bought.
SaleMatthew W GuffeyChief US Domestic Officer8,318 shares at $105.39$876,628Oct 28, 2026
SaleNorman M. Brothers JrChief Legal & Compliance Off25,014 shares at $106.15$2.7MJan 28, 2026
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+11.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.1% vs 5.4%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.5% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: UPS draws strength from logistics scale that enables margin gains via selective higher-margin shipments, yet limited innovation ownership and sector cyclicality constrain broader resilience.
Main risk: Amazon could reduce its remaining UPS volume further while offering competing supply chain services that target the same SMB, healthcare and B2B customers, eroding parcel and logistics volumes or margins.
Bull case: UPS could leverage its global network scale, automation investments and focus on complex healthcare and B2B shipments to retain premium customers and outpace rivals on reliability and integrated services.
Bear case: If Amazon and lower-cost rivals continue gaining share in parcel and logistics, UPS could face sustained volume losses and margin compression that its network pivot fails to offset.
UPS has raised its full-year guidance by prioritizing higher-margin shipments over volume growth, including cuts to lower-value Amazon deliveries. This shift has supported margin gains in core segments while cost savings continue. Does this selective model deliver more lasting profitability gains than restoring higher package volumes would?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "United Parcel Service Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UPS
Frequently asked questions
Is United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $107.24 versus a price of $114.31, about 6% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of UPS?
Our model-based fair value for United Parcel Service Inc is $107.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $114.31.
What is the quality score of UPS?
United Parcel Service Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $107.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $62.30, optimistic scenario $164.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the United Parcel Service Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $107.24, about 6% lower versus a price of $114.31 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $62.30, optimistic scenario $164.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
United Parcel Service Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $91.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does United Parcel Service Inc pay a dividend?
United Parcel Service Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 5.74% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, United Parcel Service Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +12.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UPS use?
Our models discount United Parcel Service Inc at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For United Parcel Service Inc that is +12.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at United Parcel Service Inc grew +1.0 % a year. The price currently implies +12.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into United Parcel Service Inc (+12.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.90 %: that much free cash flow United Parcel Service Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For United Parcel Service Inc it is $107.24 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $114.31. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is United Parcel Service Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, UPS trades above its calculated fair value: price $114.31, fair value $107.24, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UPS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($114.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($107.24). For United Parcel Service Inc the two are $7.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is United Parcel Service Inc worth?
The market values United Parcel Service Inc at about $97.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $114.31; our models calculate a fair value of $107.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UPS?
Our models span a range for United Parcel Service Inc: cautious scenario $62.30, base $107.24, optimistic $164.10 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $114.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UPS?
United Parcel Service Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $107.24 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 16.0 (reported for FY2025: 17.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 18.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 6.0, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
What is the PEG ratio of UPS?
The PEG ratio of United Parcel Service Inc is 1.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
Balance-sheet figures for United Parcel Service Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 28.7%, debt of 1.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UPS from its 52-week high?
United Parcel Service Inc trades at $114.31, about 1% below its 52-week high of $115.87 and 32% above the low of $86.75 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $107.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to United Parcel Service Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is United Parcel Service Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $114.31, calculated fair value $107.24 (−6%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UPS calculated?
We run United Parcel Service Inc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $107.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. United Parcel Service Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $114.31. Our model-based fair value is $107.24, about 6% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with United Parcel Service Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($62.30 to $164.10). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) come from?
Earnings per share at United Parcel Service Inc grew +6.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.5 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of United Parcel Service Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
The market capitalisation of United Parcel Service Inc is $97.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of United Parcel Service Inc is 1.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
Earnings per share at United Parcel Service Inc are $5.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
The dividend yield of United Parcel Service Inc is 5.7% (payout 111%, on adjusted earnings, reported 122%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
The net margin of United Parcel Service Inc is 4.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of United Parcel Service Inc is 28.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of United Parcel Service Inc is 14.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
The operating margin of United Parcel Service Inc is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
Revenue at United Parcel Service Inc is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)?
Earnings per share at United Parcel Service Inc are growing −11.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) carry?
The net debt of United Parcel Service Inc is $26.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026