LC Logistics Inc (2490) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$2.8B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$4.32 to HK$5.98 (+38.5%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +4.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 30% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from HK$4.49 (bear) to HK$7.48 (bull), base HK$5.98. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 45/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
35‑month range HK$2.04 – HK$16.14 · fair‑value band HK$4.49 – HK$7.48 · the HK$4.61 price screens below the HK$5.98 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
LC Logistics Inc (2490) currently trades at HK$4.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.98, implying the stock looks roughly 29.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, LC Logistics Inc generated revenue of HK$1.9B at a net margin of 7.4%. Revenue declined 18.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$334M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$4.49 (bear case) to HK$7.48 (bull case); at HK$4.61, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 30%, 2490 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$4.03) versus Earnings-Based (HK$1.37). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
LC Logistics, Inc., a freight forwarding company, provides integrated cross-border seaborne logistics and time charter services in Mainland China and internationally. The company offers cross-border logistics services, including cargo pick-up and sorting, customs clearance, cross-border seaborne transportation, warehouse transit, and last-mile delivery.
Full company description
LC Logistics, Inc., a freight forwarding company, provides integrated cross-border seaborne logistics and time charter services in Mainland China and internationally. The company offers cross-border logistics services, including cargo pick-up and sorting, customs clearance, cross-border seaborne transportation, warehouse transit, and last-mile delivery. It also offers vessel chartering; and e-commerce services, as well as involved in the leasing of its container vessels to third parties; and trading of imported goods. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Qingdao, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
LC Logistics Inc reported revenue of HK$1.8B in FY2025 versus HK$4.2B in FY2021, a compound −18.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$134M in FY2025, compounding −23.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $103.91 | $103.34 | -1% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $326.77 | $347.68 | +6% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.32 | €53.18 | -4% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,380 | kr 712.57 | -48% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $275.96 | $133.80 | -52% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥32.96 | ¥48.64 | +48% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$178.20 | HK$224.41 | +26% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 199,700 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +135% |
| YTO Express Group 600233 | ¥18.48 | ¥26.51 | +43% |
| JD Logistics, Inc 2618 | HK$14.17 | HK$21.45 | +51% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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