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LC Logistics Inc (2490) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of LC Logistics Inc HK$4.60, price HK$4.18, upside +10.1%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · HK

LL Thin data Sep 27, 2026

LC Logistics Inc

2490 · HK

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value HK$4.60 · Fairly valued (+10.1%)
!Quality 45/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +18.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$16.14 HK$2.04 Fair Value HK$4.60 Sep 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

36‑month range HK$2.04 – HK$16.14 · fair‑value band HK$3.27 – HK$6.58 · the HK$4.18 price screens below the HK$4.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

LC Logistics, Inc., a freight forwarding company, provides integrated cross-border seaborne logistics and time charter services in Mainland China and internationally. The company offers cross-border logistics services, including cargo pick-up and sorting, customs clearance, cross-border seaborne transportation, warehouse transit, and last-mile delivery.

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LC Logistics, Inc., a freight forwarding company, provides integrated cross-border seaborne logistics and time charter services in Mainland China and internationally. The company offers cross-border logistics services, including cargo pick-up and sorting, customs clearance, cross-border seaborne transportation, warehouse transit, and last-mile delivery. It also offers vessel chartering; and e-commerce services, as well as involved in the leasing of its container vessels to third parties; and trading of imported goods. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Qingdao, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

LC Logistics Inc (2490) currently trades at HK$4.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.60, implying the stock looks roughly 9.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$4.71 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$4.18 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.60, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$3.27 (bear) to HK$6.58 (bull), the price of HK$4.18 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

LC Logistics Inc reported revenue of 1.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −18.8%/yr. Reported net income was 134M CNY in FY2025, compounding −23.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$2.8B (≈ $355M) · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1900 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 10%, 2490 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$3.27 Fair Value HK$4.60 Bull HK$6.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1426 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$2.31 HK$2.48 HK$2.75 76
EPV HK$1.87 HK$2.02 HK$2.14 74
ROIC Compounder HK$1.87 HK$2.02 HK$2.14 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.74 HK$5.25 HK$6.96 65
Lynch FV HK$1.12 HK$1.60 HK$2.08 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.12 HK$1.60 HK$2.08 57
EPV HK$1.87 HK$2.02 HK$2.14 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.67 HK$3.01 HK$4.15 68
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.67 HK$2.57 HK$3.22 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$4.02 HK$5.37 HK$6.71 63
P/S Multiple HK$3.26 HK$4.34 HK$5.43 58
P/B Multiple HK$3.26 HK$4.34 HK$5.43 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.70 HK$3.34 HK$3.98 66
EV/EBITDA HK$3.84 HK$4.85 HK$5.86 67
EV/Revenue HK$2.16 HK$2.74 HK$3.33 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.42 HK$1.90 HK$2.84 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.31 HK$2.48 HK$2.75 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.87 HK$2.02 HK$2.14 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$3.29 HK$4.71 HK$6.12 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 24
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 18
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 4%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 213 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside +10.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10.3% · Above median
Return on assets 2.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 7.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 3.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −18.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.27× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 15.6× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)47 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 17
PAST (return on equity)41 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)81 · sector 59

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $93.96 $107.34 +14%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €57.20 €137.08 +140%
FedEx Corporation FDX $289.65 $349.54 +21%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,216 kr 711.95 −41%
Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €25.82 €14.24 −45%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 226.70 CHF 147.92 −35%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $188.58 $116.66 −38%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥30.54 ¥109.70 +259%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $226.07 $133.80 −41%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $148.24 $87.31 −41%

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LC Logistics Inc · Fair Value
HK$4.60 +9%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LC Logistics Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2490

Frequently asked questions

Is LC Logistics Inc (2490) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.60 versus a price of HK$4.18, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2490?
Our model-based fair value for LC Logistics Inc is HK$4.60 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.18.
What is the quality score of 2490?
LC Logistics Inc has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.60 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.27, optimistic scenario HK$6.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LC Logistics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.60, about +10% upside versus a price of HK$4.18 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.27, optimistic scenario HK$6.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
LC Logistics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does LC Logistics Inc pay a dividend?
LC Logistics Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LC Logistics Inc it is HK$4.60 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$4.18. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LC Logistics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2490 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$4.18, fair value HK$4.60, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2490?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.60). For LC Logistics Inc the two are HK$0.4220 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LC Logistics Inc worth?
The market values LC Logistics Inc at about HK$2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.18; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2490?
Our models span a range for LC Logistics Inc: cautious scenario HK$3.27, base HK$4.60, optimistic HK$6.58 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$4.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2490?
LC Logistics Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 15.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
Balance-sheet figures for LC Logistics Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2490 from its 52-week high?
LC Logistics Inc trades at HK$4.18, about 43% below its 52-week high of HK$7.37 and 13% above the low of HK$3.70 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LC Logistics Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LC Logistics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$4.18, calculated fair value HK$4.60 (+10%), Quality Score 45/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2490 calculated?
We run LC Logistics Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. LC Logistics Inc currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$4.18. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.60, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LC Logistics Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$3.27 to HK$6.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of LC Logistics Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
The market capitalisation of LC Logistics Inc is HK$2.8B (≈ $355M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LC Logistics Inc is 1.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
Earnings per share at LC Logistics Inc are HK$0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
The dividend yield of LC Logistics Inc is 4.1% (payout 89.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
The net margin of LC Logistics Inc is 7.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LC Logistics Inc is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LC Logistics Inc is 16.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
The operating margin of LC Logistics Inc is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
Revenue at LC Logistics Inc is growing −18.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at LC Logistics Inc (2490)?
Earnings per share at LC Logistics Inc are growing −93.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does LC Logistics Inc (2490) generate?
The free cash flow of LC Logistics Inc is −197M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does LC Logistics Inc (2490) hold?
LC Logistics Inc holds more cash than debt, 334M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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