Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd HK$13.42, price HK$27.68, upside -51.5%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range HK$10.77 – HK$34.46 · fair‑value band HK$8.32 – HK$16.77 · the HK$27.68 price screens above the HK$13.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Mokingran Jewellery Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in design, production, wholesale, and retail of jewellery in the People's Republic of China, North America, Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and internationally.
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Mokingran Jewellery Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in design, production, wholesale, and retail of jewellery in the People's Republic of China, North America, Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and internationally. It is also involved in the production and sales of K-gold jewellery, diamond inlaying jewellery, and other products and services; diamond wholesale; and jewellery testing. The company offers its products through an offline network consisting of franchise stores and self-operated stores, as well as e-commerce platforms. Mokingran Jewellery Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Tianjin, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585) currently trades at HK$27.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.42, 51.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$47.24 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$27.68 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.37, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$8.32 (bear) to HK$16.77 (bull), the price of HK$27.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd reported revenue of 20.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 16.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was 96.5M CNY in FY2025, compounding −18.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$7.5B (≈ $953M) · P/E ratio 48.5 · P/S ratio 0.23 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.2600 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 132% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −52%, 2585 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$8.32Fair Value HK$13.42Bull HK$16.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−1.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 1%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+61.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +59.0% a year for the price.
Compare Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Luxury Goods · 119 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−51.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.5% · Below median
Return on assets15.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)48.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.74× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.31× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF150.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA4.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)27· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)18· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)22· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2585
Frequently asked questions
Is Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$13.42 versus a price of HK$27.68, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2585?
Our model-based fair value for Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is HK$13.42 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$27.68.
What is the quality score of 2585?
Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$13.42 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$8.32, optimistic scenario HK$16.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$13.42, about −52% upside versus a price of HK$27.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$8.32, optimistic scenario HK$16.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 20.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +61.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2585 use?
Our models discount Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd that is +61.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies +61.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (+61.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.66 %: that much free cash flow Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd it is HK$13.42 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$27.68. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2585 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$27.68, fair value HK$13.42, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2585?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$27.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$13.42). For Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd the two are HK$14.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd worth?
The market values Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd at about HK$7.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$27.68; our models calculate a fair value of HK$13.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2585?
Our models span a range for Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$8.32, base HK$13.42, optimistic HK$16.77 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$27.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2585?
Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$13.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.5%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2585 from its 52-week high?
Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd trades at HK$27.68, about 20% below its 52-week high of HK$34.46 and 132% above the low of HK$11.95 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$13.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Compagnie Financière Richemont SA, Christian Dior SE, Titan Company, Kering SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$27.68, calculated fair value HK$13.42 (−52%), Quality Score 52/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2585 calculated?
We run Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$13.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$27.68. Our model-based fair value is HK$13.42, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$16.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$8.32 to HK$16.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
The market capitalisation of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is HK$7.5B (≈ $953M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is 0.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
Earnings per share at Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd are HK$−0.2600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
The dividend yield of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
The net margin of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
The operating margin of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
Revenue at Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is growing +5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
Earnings per share at Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd are growing +4.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585) carry?
The net debt of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is 1.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 35.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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