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Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$5.5B

MJ Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd 2585 · HK
PriceHK$29.16
Fair ValueHK$13.36
Upside-54.2%
Quality52/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 0.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.68% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/14)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: High Range HK$9.37 – HK$16.69 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$8.30 to HK$13.36 (+61.0%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +26.9% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 54% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$16.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (20 months)

HK$34.46 HK$10.77 Fair Value HK$13.36 Nov 2024 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

20‑month range HK$10.77 – HK$34.46 · fair‑value band HK$9.37 – HK$16.69 · the HK$29.16 price screens above the HK$13.36 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585) currently trades at HK$29.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.36, implying the stock looks roughly 54.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$20.7B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 5.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. Net debt stands at HK$1.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$9.37 (bear case) to HK$16.69 (bull case); at HK$29.16, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 157% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -6% fair-value upside, at -54%, 2585 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$2.03 to HK$18.49). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$3.42 HK$4.14 HK$5.11 80
Residual Income HK$6.43 HK$6.45 HK$5.86 76
ROIC Compounder HK$8.42 HK$9.87 HK$11.71 72
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.39 HK$4.20 HK$5.35 38
Owner Earnings HK$6.57 HK$8.93 HK$12.30 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$7.42 HK$11.75 HK$17.32 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$8.17 HK$13.12 HK$18.89 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$5.64 HK$8.47 HK$11.42 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$5.63 HK$9.16 HK$13.93 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$6.33 HK$10.08 HK$15.08 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$4.76 HK$6.95 HK$9.59 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.43 HK$6.94 HK$9.15 54
Lynch FV HK$1.42 HK$2.03 HK$2.64 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.42 HK$2.03 HK$2.64 46
EPV HK$8.42 HK$9.48 HK$10.39 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.66 HK$5.30 HK$8.03 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.66 HK$4.17 HK$5.60 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$5.89 HK$7.86 HK$9.82 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.55 HK$6.07 HK$7.59 58
P/B Multiple HK$4.55 HK$6.07 HK$7.59 55
EV/EBIT HK$14.30 HK$18.49 HK$22.69 53
EV/EBITDA HK$12.14 HK$15.61 HK$19.08 54
EV/Revenue HK$10.21 HK$13.84 HK$17.47 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.32 HK$5.78 HK$8.63 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.42 HK$4.14 HK$5.11 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$6.43 HK$6.45 HK$5.86 76
ROIC Compounder HK$8.42 HK$9.87 HK$11.71 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.72 HK$6.74 HK$8.76 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$8.93) versus Earnings-Based (HK$2.03). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$20.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.4%
Net margin 0.5%
Return on equity 4.5%
Free cash flow HK$42.4M FY2025
P/E ratio 48.5 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 5.7%
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.2600
Dividend yield 1.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +4.1%
Net debt HK$1.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Mokingran Jewellery Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in design, production, wholesale, and retail of jewellery in the People's Republic of China, North America, Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and internationally.

Full company description

Mokingran Jewellery Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in design, production, wholesale, and retail of jewellery in the People's Republic of China, North America, Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and internationally. It is also involved in the production and sales of K-gold jewellery, diamond inlaying jewellery, and other products and services; diamond wholesale; and jewellery testing. The company offers its products through an offline network consisting of franchise stores and self-operated stores, as well as e-commerce platforms. Mokingran Jewellery Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Tianjin, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$20.7B in FY2025 versus HK$16.9B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$96.5M in FY2025, compounding −18.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$20.7B
Latest YoY
+5.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.6%
Revenue +5.3%/yr
FY21 HK$16.9B
FY22 HK$15.7B
FY23 HK$20.2B
FY24 HK$19.7B
FY25 HK$20.7B
Net income −18.7%/yr
FY21 HK$221M
FY22 HK$181M
FY23 HK$230M
FY24 HK$189M
FY25 HK$96.5M

2585 screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Compagnie Financière Richemont SA →

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Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$13.36 −54%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2585

Peer Group

Luxury Goods · 136 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −54% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 16% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Revenue growth 5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.01× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 48.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.36× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.27× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 16.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 3.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 17
FUTURE 27 · sector 38
PAST 18 · sector 40
HEALTH 99 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 34 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR CHF 193.70 CHF 119.08 -39%
Christian Dior SE DIO €423.60 €1,095 +159%
Kering SA KER €270.60 €56.23 -79%
Tapestry, Inc TPR $153.74 $19.95 -87%
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 HK$12.31 HK$11.51 -6%
The Swatch Group UHRN CHF 37.90 CHF 21.48 -43%
Prada S.p.A 1913 HK$42.22 HK$64.07 +52%
Pandora A/S PNDORA kr 771.40 kr 1,424 +85%
Laopu Gold Co 6181 HK$359.20 HK$544.05 +51%
Kalyan Jewellers India Limited KALYANKJIL ₹596.70 ₹238.57 -60%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$13.36 versus a price of HK$29.16, about −54% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2585?
Our model-based fair value for Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is HK$13.36 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$29.16.
What is the quality score of 2585?
Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd (2585)?
Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2585?
The net profit margin of Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd is about 0.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Mokingran Jewellery Grp Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.68% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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