Hichain Logistics Co (300873) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 5.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Share price −42.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 43% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥18.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥12.92 – ¥32.41 · fair‑value band ¥18.06 – ¥30.13 · the ¥16.85 price screens below the ¥24.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Hichain Logistics Co (300873) currently trades at ¥16.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥24.10, implying the stock looks roughly 43.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hichain Logistics Co generated revenue of 2.0B CNY at a net margin of 10.7%. Revenue grew 13.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 25.9. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥18.06 (bear case) to ¥30.13 (bull case); at ¥16.85, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 43%, 300873 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥23.45) versus Asset-Based (¥9.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hichain Logistics Co.,Ltd. provides integrated logistics services in China and internationally. The company offers road transportation services, such as cross-border, route planning, visible tracking, and online booking services. It also provides warehousing services, including material, kitting, equipment, quality test/repair, and after-sales services.
Full company description
Hichain Logistics Co.,Ltd. provides integrated logistics services in China and internationally. The company offers road transportation services, such as cross-border, route planning, visible tracking, and online booking services. It also provides warehousing services, including material, kitting, equipment, quality test/repair, and after-sales services. In addition, the company offers custom brokerage services, such as customs or quarantine, tariff classification, path designing, import and export agency, and consulting services. Further, it engages in the integrated zone services, including logistics platform, and station management activities, as well as offers zone planning, platform management, CBEC and business support services. Additionally, the company provides international freight forwarding which includes system customization, ocean/air agency, multimodal freight, data management, control tower, and certificate brokerage services. Hichain Logistics Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hichain Logistics Co reported revenue of ¥1.9B in FY2025 versus ¥1.5B in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥265M in FY2025, compounding −3.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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