China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Brilliant Global Ltd HK$0.28, price HK$0.41, upside -31.7%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1750 – HK$0.7000 · fair‑value band HK$0.2000 – HK$0.3400 · the HK$0.4100 price screens above the HK$0.2800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China Brilliant Global Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research and development, design, wholesale, and retail of gold and jewelry, and related ancillary businesses in Hong Kong and the Peoples' Republic of China.
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China Brilliant Global Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research and development, design, wholesale, and retail of gold and jewelry, and related ancillary businesses in Hong Kong and the Peoples' Republic of China. It operates through Gold and Jewellery Business, Lending Business, Property Management Service Business, and Trading Business segments. The company trades in gold and jewellery products in the wholesale market and directly to consumers through retail outlets. It also offers property management and money lending services; and trades in technology products. The company was formerly known as Prosten Health Holdings Limited and changed its name to China Brilliant Global Limited in June 2018. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Yuen Long, Hong Kong. China Brilliant Global Limited is a subsidiary of Brilliant Chapter Limited.
Stock analysis
China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026) currently trades at HK$0.4100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2800, 31.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.1600 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.4100 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0800, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2000 (bear) to HK$0.3400 (bull), the price of HK$0.4100 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Brilliant Global Ltd reported revenue of HK$106M in FY2026 versus HK$77.8M in FY2022, a compound +8.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$9.5M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$632M (≈ $80.5M) · P/E ratio 28.0 · P/S ratio 2.50 · Net margin 8.9% · Return on equity 3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.2% · Operating margin 19.0% · Revenue (TTM) HK$106M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −32%, 8026 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.2000Fair Value HK$0.2800Bull HK$0.3400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +26.6% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−52.7% (2021) → 14.3% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.1% a year for the price.
Compare China Brilliant Global Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Luxury Goods · 122 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−31.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.0% · Below median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)8.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)19.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)28.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.81× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)5.96× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF52.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA37.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)21· sector 50
PAST (return on equity)12· sector 42
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 50
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Brilliant Global Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8026
Frequently asked questions
Is China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2800 versus a price of HK$0.4100, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8026?
Our model-based fair value for China Brilliant Global Ltd is HK$0.2800 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.4100.
What is the quality score of 8026?
China Brilliant Global Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2800 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2000, optimistic scenario HK$0.3400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Brilliant Global Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2800, about −32% upside versus a price of HK$0.4100 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2000, optimistic scenario HK$0.3400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
China Brilliant Global Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$106M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Brilliant Global Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +36.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8026 use?
Our models discount China Brilliant Global Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.02, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Brilliant Global Ltd that is +36.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Brilliant Global Ltd grew +12.4 % a year. The price currently implies +36.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Brilliant Global Ltd (+36.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.90 %: that much free cash flow China Brilliant Global Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Brilliant Global Ltd it is HK$0.2800 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.4100. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Brilliant Global Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8026 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.4100, fair value HK$0.2800, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8026?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.4100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2800). For China Brilliant Global Ltd the two are HK$0.1300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Brilliant Global Ltd worth?
The market values China Brilliant Global Ltd at about HK$632M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.4100; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8026?
Our models span a range for China Brilliant Global Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2000, base HK$0.2800, optimistic HK$0.3400 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.4100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8026?
China Brilliant Global Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.2800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 6.0, EV/EBITDA 37.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Brilliant Global Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8026 from its 52-week high?
China Brilliant Global Ltd trades at HK$0.4100, about 18% below its 52-week high of HK$0.5000 and 64% above the low of HK$0.2500 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Brilliant Global Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Compagnie Financière Richemont SA, Christian Dior SE, Kering SA, Tapestry, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Brilliant Global Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.4100, calculated fair value HK$0.2800 (−32%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8026 calculated?
We run China Brilliant Global Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Brilliant Global Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.4100. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2800, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Brilliant Global Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of China Brilliant Global Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
The market capitalisation of China Brilliant Global Ltd is HK$632M (≈ $80.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Brilliant Global Ltd is 2.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
The net margin of China Brilliant Global Ltd is 8.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Brilliant Global Ltd is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Brilliant Global Ltd is −9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
The operating margin of China Brilliant Global Ltd is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
Revenue at China Brilliant Global Ltd is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026)?
Earnings per share at China Brilliant Global Ltd are growing −3.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Brilliant Global Ltd (8026) hold?
China Brilliant Global Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$43.0M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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