Freightways Group (FRW) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$2.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$9.38 to A$7.48 (−20.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$9.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$4.88 to A$9.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
34‑month range A$6.27 – A$12.39 · fair‑value band A$4.88 – A$9.71 · the A$12.02 price screens above the A$7.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Freightways Group (FRW) currently trades at A$12.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$7.48, implying the stock looks roughly 37.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Freightways Group generated revenue of A$1.3B at a net margin of 6.5%. Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.9%. Net debt stands at A$215M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$4.88 (bear case) to A$9.71 (bull case); at A$12.02, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -38%, FRW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$12.46) versus Asset-Based (A$1.87). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Freightways Group Limited provides express package and business mail, and information management services in New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Express Package and Business Mail, Information Management, and Corporate and Other segments.
Full company description
Freightways Group Limited provides express package and business mail, and information management services in New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Express Package and Business Mail, Information Management, and Corporate and Other segments. The company provides network courier services under the New Zealand Couriers, Post Haste Couriers, Castle Parcels, Allied Express, and NOW Couriers brands; point-to-point courier services under the SUB60, Stuck, and Kiwi Express brands; and secure-logistics services under the Security Express brand. It also offers mail delivery services under the DX Mail brand; online courier solution under the Pass The Parcel brand; and mailhouse-print services under the Dataprint brand. The company provides online fulfillment services under the Stocka brand; and temperature-controlled transport services under the Big Chill and ProducePronto brands, as well as operates line-haul on the arterial roads under the Parceline Express name. It also offers document destruction, eDestruction and product destruction services, such as document, e-waste, media, hard drive, archive box, purge, textile, and product destruction, as well as paper recycling, printer waste, e-waste recycling, and recycled office paper under the Shred-X brand. The company provides products and services for handling, treatment, and disposal of clinical waste and related services under the Med-X brand. It also offers general and aviation engineering services; physical storage and information management, and digital information processing services; information technology and advisory, and e-commerce freight services; and aviation-related, IT infrastructure support, group treasury management, Australian treasury, and financing and property management services. Freightways Group Limited was formerly known as Freightways Limited and changed its name to Freightways Group Limited in March 2023. The company was founded in 1964 and is based in Penrose, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Freightways Group reported revenue of A$1.3B in FY2025 versus A$801M in FY2021, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$79.9M in FY2025, compounding +12.7%/yr from FY2021.
FRW screens 38% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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