Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, (HOROZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · TR · Market cap 5.0B TRY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −11.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 23% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (53.98 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
26‑month range 43.94 TRY – 93.40 TRY · fair‑value band 31.55 TRY – 53.98 TRY · the 55.55 TRY price screens above the 42.77 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, (HOROZ) currently trades at 55.55 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 42.77 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 23.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, generated revenue of 12.5B TRY at a net margin of -0.8%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.7%. Net debt stands at 94.3M TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 31.55 TRY (bear case) to 53.98 TRY (bull case); at 55.55 TRY, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -23%, HOROZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (108.85 TRY) versus Earnings-Based (17.00 TRY). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in Turkey and internationally.
Full company description
Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in Turkey and internationally. The company offers transportation services, including international road transport, international air freight, national and international rail freight, international sea freight, intermodal transport, domestic full track load transportation, domestic distribution, furniture distribution, and project cargo transportation services; and storage services, such as conventional, dealer-shared, e-commerce, and furniture warehouses. It also provides e-services comprising e-export, e-commerce logistics, Horoz wallet, and Alibaba membership; other services consisting of furniture assembly and SSH, project management and consulting, and customs and insurance services; and partial load distribution and third-party logistics services. Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, reported revenue of 12.0B TRY in FY2025 versus 3.4B TRY in FY2021, a compound +36.8%/yr. Reported net income was −68.1M TRY in FY2025.
HOROZ screens 23% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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