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Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, (HOROZ) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · TR · Market cap 5.0B TRY

HL Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, HOROZ · IS
Price55.55 TRY
Fair Value42.77 TRY
Upside-23.0%
Quality34/100
Watch Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -0.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/9)
Narrow moat 12/100
Evidence: Medium Range 31.55 TRY – 53.98 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026

From 14 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −11.6% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 23% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (53.98 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (2 years)

93.40 TRY 43.94 TRY Fair Value 42.77 TRY Jun 2024 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

26‑month range 43.94 TRY – 93.40 TRY · fair‑value band 31.55 TRY – 53.98 TRY · the 55.55 TRY price screens above the 42.77 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

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Analysis

Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, (HOROZ) currently trades at 55.55 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 42.77 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 23.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, generated revenue of 12.5B TRY at a net margin of -0.8%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.7%. Net debt stands at 94.3M TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 31.55 TRY (bear case) to 53.98 TRY (bull case); at 55.55 TRY, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -23%, HOROZ screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 68.75 TRY 118.78 TRY 216.68 TRY 80
Rev-Margin DCF 35.87 TRY 53.82 TRY 89.39 TRY 74
ROIC Compounder 15.51 TRY 17.00 TRY 18.29 TRY 72
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 72.81 TRY 108.85 TRY 221.21 TRY 38
Owner Earnings 180.97 TRY 393.72 TRY 823.94 TRY 31
5Y Revenue Exit 34.62 TRY 47.70 TRY 74.44 TRY 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 155.72 TRY 292.52 TRY 561.59 TRY 41
10Y Revenue Exit 46.05 TRY 75.77 TRY 89.08 TRY 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 132.96 TRY 330.59 TRY 688.54 TRY 37
Earnings-Based
EPV 15.51 TRY 17.00 TRY 18.29 TRY 59
Multiples
EV/EBIT 23.84 TRY 29.77 TRY 35.71 TRY 53
EV/EBITDA 182.91 TRY 241.87 TRY 300.83 TRY 54
EV/Revenue 18.03 TRY 23.18 TRY 28.32 TRY 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 20.78 TRY 27.85 TRY 41.56 TRY 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 68.75 TRY 118.78 TRY 216.68 TRY 80
Rev-Margin DCF 35.87 TRY 53.82 TRY 89.39 TRY 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 15.51 TRY 17.00 TRY 18.29 TRY 72

Widest divergence: DCF Models (108.85 TRY) versus Earnings-Based (17.00 TRY). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 12.5B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.4%
Net margin -0.8%
Return on equity -2.7%
Free cash flow 380M TRY FY2025
Operating margin 0.9%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) -1.11 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) -91.4%
Net debt 94.3M TRY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 28
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 48
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in Turkey and internationally.

Full company description

Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in Turkey and internationally. The company offers transportation services, including international road transport, international air freight, national and international rail freight, international sea freight, intermodal transport, domestic full track load transportation, domestic distribution, furniture distribution, and project cargo transportation services; and storage services, such as conventional, dealer-shared, e-commerce, and furniture warehouses. It also provides e-services comprising e-export, e-commerce logistics, Horoz wallet, and Alibaba membership; other services consisting of furniture assembly and SSH, project management and consulting, and customs and insurance services; and partial load distribution and third-party logistics services. Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, reported revenue of 12.0B TRY in FY2025 versus 3.4B TRY in FY2021, a compound +36.8%/yr. Reported net income was −68.1M TRY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
12.0B TRY
Latest YoY
+6.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+43.3%
Revenue +36.8%/yr
FY21 3.4B TRY
FY22 4.1B TRY
FY23 7.9B TRY
FY24 11.3B TRY
FY25 12.0B TRY
Net income
FY21 279M TRY
FY22 305M TRY
FY23 197M TRY
FY24 916M TRY
FY25 −68.1M TRY

HOROZ screens 23% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOROZ

Peer Group

Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −23% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 14% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 3 · sector 44
FUTURE 72 · sector 8
PAST 0 · sector 26
HEALTH 100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $117.72 $104.58 -11%
FedEx Corporation FDX $314.69 $347.68 +10%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €57.22 €53.18 -7%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,660 kr 712.57 -57%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 209.90 CHF 147.92 -30%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $291.41 $133.80 -54%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥31.91 ¥48.64 +52%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $193.50 $86.56 -55%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $172.02 $115.95 -33%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$181.40 HK$241.93 +33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, (HOROZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 42.77 TRY versus a price of 55.55 TRY, about −23% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HOROZ?
Our model-based fair value for Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is 42.77 TRY (as of Aug 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 55.55 TRY.
What is the quality score of HOROZ?
Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, has a Quality Score of 34/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, (HOROZ)?
Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.5B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HOROZ?
The net profit margin of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, is about -0.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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