Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi TRY 75.78, price TRY 47.36, upside +60.0%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in Turkey and internationally.
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Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in Turkey and internationally. The company offers transportation services, including international road transport, international air freight, national and international rail freight, international sea freight, intermodal transport, domestic full track load transportation, domestic distribution, furniture distribution, and project cargo transportation services; and storage services, such as conventional, dealer-shared, e-commerce, and furniture warehouses. It also provides e-services comprising e-export, e-commerce logistics, Horoz wallet, and Alibaba membership; other services consisting of furniture assembly and SSH, project management and consulting, and customs and insurance services; and partial load distribution and third-party logistics services. Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ) currently trades at 47.36 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 75.78 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 108.85 TRY per share, and 9 of the 14 models we run sit above the 47.36 TRY price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 17.00 TRY, and 5 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 54.35 TRY (bear) to 120.11 TRY (bull), the price of 47.36 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi reported revenue of 12.0B TRY in FY2025 versus 3.4B TRY in FY2021, a compound +36.8%/yr. Reported net income was −68.1M TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 5.0B TRY (≈ $103M) · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) −1.11 TRY · Net margin −0.6% · Return on equity −2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% · Operating margin 0.9% · Revenue (TTM) 12.5B TRY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 60%, HOROZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 54.35 TRYFair Value 75.78 TRYBull 120.11 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.3%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.2% (2021) → 1.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 198 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOROZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 75.78 TRY versus a price of 47.36 TRY, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HOROZ?
Our model-based fair value for Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 75.78 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 47.36 TRY.
What is the quality score of HOROZ?
Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 75.78 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 54.35 TRY, optimistic scenario 120.11 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 75.78 TRY, about +60% upside versus a price of 47.36 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 54.35 TRY, optimistic scenario 120.11 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.5B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi would have to grow free cash flow by +13.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 16.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +36.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HOROZ use?
Our models discount Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi at 16.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi that is +13.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (16.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi grew +36.8 % a year. The price currently implies +13.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (+13.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.87 %: that much free cash flow Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (16.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi it is 75.78 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 47.36 TRY. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, HOROZ trades below its calculated fair value: price 47.36 TRY, fair value 75.78 TRY, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOROZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (47.36 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (75.78 TRY). For Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi the two are 28.42 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi worth?
The market values Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi at about 5.0B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 47.36 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 75.78 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOROZ?
Our models span a range for Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi: cautious scenario 54.35 TRY, base 75.78 TRY, optimistic 120.11 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 47.36 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −2.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOROZ from its 52-week high?
Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi trades at 47.36 TRY, about 51% below its 52-week high of 95.95 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 75.78 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 47.36 TRY, calculated fair value 75.78 TRY (+60%), Quality Score 41/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOROZ calculated?
We run Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 75.78 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 47.36 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 75.78 TRY, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (54.35 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (54.35 TRY to 120.11 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi
How large is the market capitalisation of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
The market capitalisation of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 5.0B TRY (≈ $103M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 0.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
Earnings per share at Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi are −1.11 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
The net margin of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is −0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is −2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
The operating margin of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
Revenue at Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +43.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ)?
Earnings per share at Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi are growing −91.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (HOROZ) carry?
The net debt of Horoz Lojistik Kargo Hizmetleri ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is 94.3M TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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