ID Logistics Group SA (IDL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ID Logistics Group SA stock €257, price €382, that is 32.6% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €233.00 – €465.00 · fair‑value band €186.16 – €351.59 · the €381.50 price screens above the €257.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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ID Logistics Group SA provides contract logistics services in France and internationally. It offers warehousing and value-added, transport and flow organization, and supply chain optimization services. The company provides co-packing and site automation services.
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In addition, it provides turnkey project delivery and e-commerce solutions. The company serves customers in the FMCG, e-commerce, high-tech, cosmetics and fragrance, healthcare, fashion, industrial, and retail sectors. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Orgon, France.
Stock analysis
ID Logistics Group SA (IDL) currently trades at €381.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €257.07, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €946.00 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the €381.50 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €166.24, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €186.16 (bear) to €351.59 (bull), the price of €381.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ID Logistics Group SA reported revenue of €3.7B in FY2025 versus €1.9B in FY2021, a compound +18.7%/yr. Reported net income was €63.3M in FY2025, compounding +17.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.5B Mid · P/E ratio 39.7 · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) €9.61 · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −33%, IDL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€186.16Fair Value €257.07Bull€351.59
Price €381.50 · Downside -32.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€8.21 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.9% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.7% vs 12.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.0% a year for the price and +8.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (77 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from long-term client contracts that support revenue growth in contract logistics across Europe and the US, yet low net margins and thin evidence indicate limited durable competitive advantage.
Main risk: Slowing volumes in retail and manufacturing sectors would reduce demand for its contract logistics services and pressure earnings.
ID Logistics reported very strong revenue growth in the first half from its contract logistics services in Europe and expanding US operations. Our models see the shares as overvalued relative to earnings power. Does the business gain more from long-term client contracts or face risks when volumes slow in retail and manufacturing sectors?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ID Logistics Group SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IDL
Frequently asked questions
Is ID Logistics Group SA (IDL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €257.07 versus a price of €381.50, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IDL?
Our model-based fair value for ID Logistics Group SA is €257.07 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €381.50.
What is the quality score of IDL?
ID Logistics Group SA has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €257.07 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €186.16, optimistic scenario €351.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ID Logistics Group SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €257.07, about 33% lower versus a price of €381.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €186.16, optimistic scenario €351.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
ID Logistics Group SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ID Logistics Group SA would have to grow free cash flow by -5.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.9 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IDL use?
Our models discount ID Logistics Group SA at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ID Logistics Group SA that is -5.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ID Logistics Group SA (IDL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ID Logistics Group SA grew +17.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -5.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ID Logistics Group SA (-5.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.83 %: that much free cash flow ID Logistics Group SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ID Logistics Group SA it is €257.07 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €381.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is ID Logistics Group SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, IDL trades above its calculated fair value: price €381.50, fair value €257.07, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IDL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€381.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€257.07). For ID Logistics Group SA the two are €124.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ID Logistics Group SA worth?
The market values ID Logistics Group SA at about €2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €381.50; our models calculate a fair value of €257.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IDL?
Our models span a range for ID Logistics Group SA: cautious scenario €186.16, base €257.07, optimistic €351.59 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €381.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IDL?
ID Logistics Group SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.7 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €257.07 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 49.1. Other multiples: P/B 3.9, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 28.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
Balance-sheet figures for ID Logistics Group SA (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IDL from its 52-week high?
ID Logistics Group SA trades at €381.50, about 13% below its 52-week high of €436.50 and 23% above the low of €309.50 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €257.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ID Logistics Group SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ID Logistics Group SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €381.50, calculated fair value €257.07 (−33%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IDL calculated?
We run ID Logistics Group SA through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €257.07 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. ID Logistics Group SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €381.50. Our model-based fair value is €257.07, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ID Logistics Group SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€351.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€186.16 to €351.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL) come from?
Earnings per share at ID Logistics Group SA grew +12.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.2 %, EBIT margin +1.7 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ID Logistics Group SA
How large is the market capitalisation of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
The market capitalisation of ID Logistics Group SA is €2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ID Logistics Group SA is 0.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
Earnings per share at ID Logistics Group SA are €9.61 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
The net margin of ID Logistics Group SA is 1.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ID Logistics Group SA is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ID Logistics Group SA is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
The operating margin of ID Logistics Group SA is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
Revenue at ID Logistics Group SA is growing +18.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ID Logistics Group SA (IDL)?
Earnings per share at ID Logistics Group SA are growing +19.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ID Logistics Group SA (IDL) carry?
The net debt of ID Logistics Group SA is €1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026