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Kaixin Holdings (KXIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Kaixin Holdings $3.22, price $1.38, upside +133.5%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN KYG5223X1007

KH Kaixin Holdings logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Kaixin Holdings

KXIN · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $3.22 · Strongly undervalued (+133.5%)
!Quality 34/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −88.4 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/6)
!Narrow moat 5/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1,000,000 $1.03 Fair Value $3.22 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.03 – $1,000,000 · fair‑value band $2.41 – $4.80 · the $1.38 price screens below the $3.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Kaixin Holdings, an investment holding company, sells domestic and imported automobiles in the People's Republic of China.

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Kaixin Holdings, an investment holding company, sells domestic and imported automobiles in the People's Republic of China. It also sells new and used vehicles through a network of dealerships with a focus on automobile brands, such as Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Land Rover, Bentley, Rolls-Royce, and Porsche, as well as through online sales channels, including the Kaixin app and web interfaces. The company was formerly known as Kaixin Auto Holdings. Kaixin Holdings is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Kaixin Holdings (KXIN) currently trades at $1.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.22, implying the stock looks roughly 57.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.41 (bear) to $4.80 (bull), the price of $1.38 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Kaixin Holdings reported revenue of $129K in FY2025 versus $254M in FY2021, a compound −85.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$53.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $8.9M · P/S ratio 69.4 · EPS (TTM) $−385.06 · Return on equity −307% · Return on assets (EBIT) −108% · Operating margin −67,341% · Revenue (TTM) $129K · Revenue growth (YoY) −74.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 100% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 133%, KXIN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.41 Fair Value $3.22 Bull $4.80
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $13.20 $17.68 $26.39 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $13.20 $17.68 $26.39 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 6

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 76
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 21
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−88.4%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−22.9% (2020) → −24,489.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 90 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +125.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −68.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −74.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.10× · Lowest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 17
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 67

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Carvana Co CVNA $63.62 $25.27 −60%
Penske Automotive Group PAG $202.84 $229.90 +13%
D'Ieteren Group DIE €162.50 €105.40 −35%
Hotai Motor Co 2207 510.00 TWD 558.82 TWD +10%
CarMax, Inc KMX $56.55 $29.62 −48%
Lithia Motors, Inc LAD $303.07 $517.15 +71%
Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHB $55.19 $45.83 −17%
AutoNation, Inc AN $166.98 $410.20 +146%
AUTO1 Group AG1 €18.35 €4.53 −75%
OPENLANE, Inc OPLN $34.82 $30.57 −12%

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Kaixin Holdings · Fair Value
$3.22 +57%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kaixin Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KXIN

Frequently asked questions

Is Kaixin Holdings (KXIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.22 versus a price of $1.38, about +133% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KXIN?
Our model-based fair value for Kaixin Holdings is $3.22 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.38.
What is the quality score of KXIN?
Kaixin Holdings has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.22 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.41, optimistic scenario $4.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kaixin Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.22, about +133% upside versus a price of $1.38 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.41, optimistic scenario $4.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
Kaixin Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $129K (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kaixin Holdings it is $3.22 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $1.38. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kaixin Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, KXIN trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.38, fair value $3.22, a gap of about +133% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KXIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.22). For Kaixin Holdings the two are $1.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kaixin Holdings worth?
The market values Kaixin Holdings at about $8.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $1.38; our models calculate a fair value of $3.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KXIN?
Our models span a range for Kaixin Holdings: cautious scenario $2.41, base $3.22, optimistic $4.80 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $1.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kaixin Holdings (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −307.2%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KXIN from its 52-week high?
Kaixin Holdings trades at $1.38, about 100% below its 52-week high of $810.00 and 34% above the low of $1.03 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kaixin Holdings?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, D'Ieteren Group, Hotai Motor Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kaixin Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $1.38, calculated fair value $3.22 (+133%), Quality Score 34/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KXIN calculated?
We run Kaixin Holdings through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kaixin Holdings currently trades 57 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.38. Our model-based fair value is $3.22, about +133% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kaixin Holdings right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.41). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.41 to $4.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Kaixin Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
The market capitalisation of Kaixin Holdings is $8.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kaixin Holdings is 69.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
Earnings per share at Kaixin Holdings are $−385.06. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kaixin Holdings is −307% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kaixin Holdings is −108% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
The operating margin of Kaixin Holdings is −67,341% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kaixin Holdings (KXIN)?
Revenue at Kaixin Holdings is growing −74.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −88.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Kaixin Holdings (KXIN) generate?
The free cash flow of Kaixin Holdings is −$2.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kaixin Holdings (KXIN) carry?
The net debt of Kaixin Holdings is $603K (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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