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Orcoda Ltd (ODA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Orcoda Ltd A$0.06, price A$0.05, upside +15.9%, quality 27 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · AU · ISIN AU0000022261

OL Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Orcoda Ltd

ODA · AU

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value A$0.0626 · Undervalued (+16%)
!Quality 27/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +67.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Insider activity 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 8 out of 100
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$0.3450 A$0.0420 Fair Value A$0.0626 Jun 2019 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0420 – A$0.3450 · fair‑value band A$0.0518 – A$0.0680 · the A$0.0540 price screens below the A$0.0626 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Orcoda Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides smart technology transport logistics and contracting services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Transport Technology, and Resource and Infrastructure.

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Orcoda Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides smart technology transport logistics and contracting services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Transport Technology, and Resource and Infrastructure. It offers Orcoda Workforce Logistics System platform that manages people, places, and processes on infrastructure and resources projects for which visibility and control over the whole work team and assets; and a transportation management system. The company also provides fleet management and optimization via the Transport360 platform with a front-end booking platform for transport logistics and healthcare transport providers; Orcoda Community Transport for community transport providers; Orcoda Connect for carpooling; and Orcoda GO for turn-by-turn navigation. It serves mining, oil and gas, truck and transportation, bus and coach, and healthcare industries, as well as corporate and government. The company was formerly known as SmartTrans Holdings Limited and changed its name to Orcoda Limited in August 2018. Orcoda Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Hendra, Australia.

Stock analysis

Orcoda Ltd (ODA) currently trades at A$0.0540, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0626, implying the stock looks roughly 13.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0518 (bear) to A$0.0680 (bull), the price of A$0.0540 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Orcoda Ltd reported revenue of A$16.7M in FY2025 versus A$7.6M in FY2021, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$18.8M (≈ $13.2M) · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Net margin −14.9% · Return on equity −9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% · Operating margin −3.6% · Revenue (TTM) A$16.9M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 16%, ODA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0518 Fair Value A$0.0626 Bull A$0.0680
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA A$0.0600 A$0.0800 A$0.0900 67
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0400 A$0.0600 A$0.0900 53
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA A$0.0600 A$0.0800 A$0.0900 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0400 A$0.0600 A$0.0900 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 20
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 47
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−33.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+67.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.6% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−234.2% (2020) → −3.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.12× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.80× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.78× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)55 · sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)8 · sector 8
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)94 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 62

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $95.82 $107.84 +13%
FedEx Corporation FDX $291.50 $347.68 +19%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €56.48 €136.05 +141%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,235 kr 712.57 −42%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 228.10 CHF 147.92 −35%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $234.63 $133.80 −43%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥30.94 ¥106.04 +243%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $149.67 $86.56 −42%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $188.03 $115.95 −38%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$155.70 HK$260.98 +68%

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Orcoda Ltd · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orcoda Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ODA

Frequently asked questions

Is Orcoda Ltd (ODA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0626 versus a price of A$0.0540, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ODA?
Our model-based fair value for Orcoda Ltd is A$0.0626 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0540.
What is the quality score of ODA?
Orcoda Ltd has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0626 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0518, optimistic scenario A$0.0680. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orcoda Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0626, about +16% upside versus a price of A$0.0540 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0518, optimistic scenario A$0.0680. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Orcoda Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$16.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orcoda Ltd it is A$0.0626 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0540. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orcoda Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ODA trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0540, fair value A$0.0626, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ODA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0540); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0626). For Orcoda Ltd the two are A$0.0086 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orcoda Ltd worth?
The market values Orcoda Ltd at about A$18.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0540; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0626 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ODA?
Our models span a range for Orcoda Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0518, base A$0.0626, optimistic A$0.0680 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0540). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orcoda Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −9.7%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ODA from its 52-week high?
Orcoda Ltd trades at A$0.0540, about 57% below its 52-week high of A$0.1250 and 29% above the low of A$0.0420 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0626 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orcoda Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orcoda Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0540, calculated fair value A$0.0626 (+16%), Quality Score 27/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ODA calculated?
We run Orcoda Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0626, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Orcoda Ltd currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.0540. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0626, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orcoda Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Orcoda Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The market capitalisation of Orcoda Ltd is A$18.8M (≈ $13.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orcoda Ltd is 1.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Earnings per share at Orcoda Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The net margin of Orcoda Ltd is −14.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orcoda Ltd is −9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orcoda Ltd is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The operating margin of Orcoda Ltd is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Revenue at Orcoda Ltd is growing +1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Earnings per share at Orcoda Ltd are growing −71.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orcoda Ltd (ODA) generate?
The free cash flow of Orcoda Ltd is −A$977K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orcoda Ltd (ODA) carry?
The net debt of Orcoda Ltd is A$1.2M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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