Orcoda Limited (ODA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$18.8M
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price −8.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 46% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.0300 to A$0.0600) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0420 – A$0.3450 · fair‑value band A$0.0300 – A$0.0600 · the A$0.0920 price screens above the A$0.0500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Orcoda Limited (ODA) currently trades at A$0.0920, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0500, implying the stock looks roughly 45.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Orcoda Limited generated revenue of A$16.9M at a net margin of -9.2%. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.7%. Net debt stands at A$1.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0300 (bear case) to A$0.0600 (bull case); at A$0.0920, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 130% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -46%, ODA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$0.0600) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.0400). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orcoda Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides smart technology transport logistics and contracting services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Transport Technology, and Resource and Infrastructure.
Full company description
Orcoda Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides smart technology transport logistics and contracting services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Transport Technology, and Resource and Infrastructure. It offers Orcoda Workforce Logistics System platform that manages people, places, and processes on infrastructure and resources projects for which visibility and control over the whole work team and assets; and a transportation management system. The company also provides fleet management and optimization via the Transport360 platform with a front-end booking platform for transport logistics and healthcare transport providers; Orcoda Community Transport for community transport providers; Orcoda Connect for carpooling; and Orcoda GO for turn-by-turn navigation. It serves mining, oil and gas, truck and transportation, bus and coach, and healthcare industries, as well as corporate and government. The company was formerly known as SmartTrans Holdings Limited and changed its name to Orcoda Limited in August 2018. Orcoda Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Hendra, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Orcoda Limited reported revenue of A$16.7M in FY2025 versus A$7.6M in FY2021, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.5M in FY2025.
ODA screens 46% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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