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Orcoda Ltd (ODA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orcoda Ltd stock A$0.06, price A$0.08, that is 25.5% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 5 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials AU · ISIN AU0000022261

OL Orcoda Ltd logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

Orcoda Ltd

ODA · AU
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 25% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Revenue last quarter 8% below a year ago.
Fair value A$0.0559 · Overvalued
Quality 39/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −6.7 %/yr in AUD)
Loss-making · -11.3% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (1/10)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.3450 A$0.0420 Fair Value A$0.0559 Jul 2019 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0420 – A$0.3450 · fair‑value band A$0.0421 – A$0.0766 · the A$0.0750 price screens above the A$0.0559 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Orcoda Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides smart technology transport logistics and contracting services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Transport Technology, and Resource and Infrastructure.

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It offers Orcoda Workforce Logistics System platform that manages people, places, and processes on infrastructure and resources projects for which visibility and control over the whole work team and assets; and a transportation management system.

The company also provides fleet management and optimization via the Transport360 platform with a front-end booking platform for transport logistics and healthcare transport providers; Orcoda Community Transport for community transport providers; Orcoda Connect for carpooling; and Orcoda GO for turn-by-turn navigation.

It serves mining, oil and gas, truck and transportation, bus and coach, and healthcare industries, as well as corporate and government. The company was formerly known as SmartTrans Holdings Limited and changed its name to Orcoda Limited in August 2018.

Orcoda Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Hendra, Australia.

Stock analysis

Orcoda Ltd (ODA) currently trades at A$0.0750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0559, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$0.0500 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the A$0.0750 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at A$0.0400, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: A$0.0421 (bear) to A$0.0766 (bull), the price of A$0.0750 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Orcoda Ltd reported revenue of A$16.2M in FY2026 versus A$16.1M in FY2022, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.8M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$14.1M (≈ $9.7M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Net margin −11.3% · Return on equity −11.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −17.2% · Revenue (TTM) A$16.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −25%, ODA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0421 Fair Value A$0.0559 Bull A$0.0766
Price A$0.0750 · Downside -25.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Growth DCF A$0.0300 A$0.0500 A$0.0800 74
FCF DCF A$0.0300 A$0.0400 A$0.0900 73
5Y Revenue Exit A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0400 69
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$0.0300 A$0.0400 A$0.0900 73
5Y Revenue Exit A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0400 69
10Y Revenue Exit A$0.0200 A$0.0400 A$0.0400 66
Multiples
EV/Revenue n/a n/a A$0.0100 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$0.0300 A$0.0500 A$0.0800 74

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 15
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 24
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 55
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 17
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 16
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 33
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 15
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.3% (2021) → −12.8% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.4% a year for the price.

ODA screens overvalued: fair value 25% below the price. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −25.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −9.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −11.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −17.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −8.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.09× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.96× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.87× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 92.7× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 64

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥34.54 ¥45.60 +32% vs ODA
FedEx Corporation FDX $308.14 $350.86 +14% vs ODA
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $108.30 $107.24 −1% vs ODA
Deutsche Post AG DHL €58.02 €53.62 −8% vs ODA
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $184.61 $117.46 −36% vs ODA
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 235.50 CHF 147.92 −37% vs ODA
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $217.55 $133.78 −39% vs ODA
Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €24.52 €14.76 −40% vs ODA
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,470 kr 711.95 −52% vs ODA
FedEx Freight Holding FDXF $123.56 $54.55 −56% vs ODA

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Orcoda Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orcoda Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ODA

Frequently asked questions

Is Orcoda Ltd (ODA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0559 versus a price of A$0.0750, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ODA?
Our model-based fair value for Orcoda Ltd is A$0.0559 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0750.
What is the quality score of ODA?
Orcoda Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0559 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0421, optimistic scenario A$0.0766. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orcoda Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0559, about 25% lower versus a price of A$0.0750 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0421, optimistic scenario A$0.0766. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Orcoda Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$16.2M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orcoda Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +42.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ODA use?
Our models discount Orcoda Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.37, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orcoda Ltd that is +42.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orcoda Ltd (ODA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orcoda Ltd grew +16.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +42.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orcoda Ltd (ODA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orcoda Ltd (+42.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.08 %: that much free cash flow Orcoda Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orcoda Ltd it is A$0.0559 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$0.0750. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF).
Is Orcoda Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ODA trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0750, fair value A$0.0559, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ODA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0750); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0559). For Orcoda Ltd the two are A$0.0191 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orcoda Ltd worth?
The market values Orcoda Ltd at about A$14.1M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0750; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0559 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ODA?
Our models span a range for Orcoda Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0421, base A$0.0559, optimistic A$0.0766 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$0.0750). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orcoda Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −11.8%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ODA from its 52-week high?
Orcoda Ltd trades at A$0.0750, about 40% below its 52-week high of A$0.1250 and 79% above the low of A$0.0420 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0559 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orcoda Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orcoda Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$0.0750, calculated fair value A$0.0559 (−25%), Quality Score 39/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ODA calculated?
We run Orcoda Ltd through 5 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0559 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Orcoda Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.0750. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0559, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orcoda Ltd right now?
Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0421 to A$0.0766) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Orcoda Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The market capitalisation of Orcoda Ltd is A$14.1M (≈ $9.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orcoda Ltd is 0.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Earnings per share at Orcoda Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The net margin of Orcoda Ltd is −11.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orcoda Ltd is −11.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orcoda Ltd is 0.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
The operating margin of Orcoda Ltd is −17.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Revenue at Orcoda Ltd is growing −8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orcoda Ltd (ODA)?
Earnings per share at Orcoda Ltd are growing −71.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orcoda Ltd (ODA) carry?
The net debt of Orcoda Ltd is A$1.5M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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