Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Orian Sh.M. Ltd ILS 30.00, price ILS 24.30, upside +23.5%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12.83 ILA – 43.60 ILA · fair‑value band 15.82 ILA – 46.35 ILA · the 24.30 ILA price screens below the 30.00 ILA fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Orian Sh.M. Ltd. engages in the provision of logistics services in Israel and internationally. The company offers international shipping, customs brokerage, ocean and air freight, and distribution and transportation services.
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Orian Sh.M. Ltd. engages in the provision of logistics services in Israel and internationally. The company offers international shipping, customs brokerage, ocean and air freight, and distribution and transportation services. It also provides ocean and air cargo insurance, third party shipment, special express, project cargo, and blood samples delivery services, as well as healthcare supply chain solutions. Orian Sh.M. Ltd. was founded in 1953 and is based in Modi'in-Maccabim-Re'ut, Israel.
Stock analysis
Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) currently trades at 24.30 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 30.00 ILA, implying the stock looks roughly 19.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 17.56 ILA per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the 24.30 ILA price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 3.66 ILA, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 15.82 ILA (bear) to 46.35 ILA (bull), the price of 24.30 ILA sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Orian Sh.M. Ltd reported revenue of 338M ILS in FY2025 versus 308M ILS in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was −4.1M ILS in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 435M ILA · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) −1.01 ILA · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin −1.2% · Return on equity −1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 23%, ORIN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 15.82 ILAFair Value 30.00 ILABull 46.35 ILA
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.5% (2020) → 3.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
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Is Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 30.00 ILA versus a price of 24.30 ILA, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORIN?
Our model-based fair value for Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 30.00 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 24.30 ILA.
What is the quality score of ORIN?
Orian Sh.M. Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 30.00 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 15.82 ILA, optimistic scenario 46.35 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orian Sh.M. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 30.00 ILA, about +23% upside versus a price of 24.30 ILA (undervalued). Cautious scenario 15.82 ILA, optimistic scenario 46.35 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Orian Sh.M. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 996M ILS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Orian Sh.M. Ltd pay a dividend?
Orian Sh.M. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orian Sh.M. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +27.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORIN use?
Our models discount Orian Sh.M. Ltd at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orian Sh.M. Ltd that is +27.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orian Sh.M. Ltd grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies +27.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orian Sh.M. Ltd (+27.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.78 %: that much free cash flow Orian Sh.M. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orian Sh.M. Ltd it is 30.00 ILA per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 24.30 ILA. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orian Sh.M. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ORIN trades below its calculated fair value: price 24.30 ILA, fair value 30.00 ILA, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (24.30 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (30.00 ILA). For Orian Sh.M. Ltd the two are 5.70 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orian Sh.M. Ltd worth?
The market values Orian Sh.M. Ltd at about 435M ILA (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 24.30 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 30.00 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORIN?
Our models span a range for Orian Sh.M. Ltd: cautious scenario 15.82 ILA, base 30.00 ILA, optimistic 46.35 ILA per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 24.30 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orian Sh.M. Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −1.5%, debt of 1.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORIN from its 52-week high?
Orian Sh.M. Ltd trades at 24.30 ILA, about 21% below its 52-week high of 30.80 ILA and 25% above the low of 19.45 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 30.00 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orian Sh.M. Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orian Sh.M. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 24.30 ILA, calculated fair value 30.00 ILA (+23%), Quality Score 34/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORIN calculated?
We run Orian Sh.M. Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 30.00 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Orian Sh.M. Ltd currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 24.30 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 30.00 ILA, about +23% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orian Sh.M. Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (15.82 ILA to 46.35 ILA). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) come from?
Earnings per share at Orian Sh.M. Ltd grew −0.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orian Sh.M. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The market capitalisation of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 435M ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 0.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Earnings per share at Orian Sh.M. Ltd are −1.01 ILA. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The dividend yield of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 0.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The net margin of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is −1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is −1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The operating margin of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Revenue at Orian Sh.M. Ltd is growing −11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Earnings per share at Orian Sh.M. Ltd are growing +82.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) carry?
The net debt of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 319M ILA (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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