Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orian Sh.M. Ltd stock ILS 22.68, price ILS 23.76, that is 4.5% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12.83 ILS – 43.60 ILS · fair‑value band 11.96 ILS – 35.04 ILS · the 23.76 ILS price screens above the 22.68 ILS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Orian Sh.M. Ltd. engages in the provision of logistics services in Israel and internationally. The company offers international shipping, customs brokerage, ocean and air freight, and distribution and transportation services.
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It also provides ocean and air cargo insurance, third party shipment, special express, project cargo, and blood samples delivery services, as well as healthcare supply chain solutions. Orian Sh.M. Ltd. was founded in 1953 and is based in Modi'in-Maccabim-Re'ut, Israel.
Stock analysis
Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) currently trades at 23.76 ILS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.68 ILS, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 10.37 ILS per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the 23.76 ILS price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3.68 ILS, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 11.96 ILS (bear) to 35.04 ILS (bull), the price of 23.76 ILS sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Orian Sh.M. Ltd reported revenue of 338M ILS in FY2025 versus 308M ILS in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was −4.1M ILS in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 428M ILS Micro · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) −0.6200 ILS · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin −0.6% · Return on equity −1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −5%, ORIN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear11.96 ILSFair Value 22.68 ILSBull35.04 ILS
Price 23.76 ILS · Downside -4.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF5.99 ILS12.23 ILS19.89 ILS78
Growth DCF5.98 ILS11.34 ILS17.52 ILS77
5Y EBITDA Exit7.10 ILS16.87 ILS28.14 ILS72
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF5.99 ILS12.23 ILS19.89 ILS78
Owner Earnings1.33 ILS5.82 ILS11.32 ILS70
5Y Revenue Exitn/a3.09 ILS7.05 ILS69
5Y EBITDA Exit7.10 ILS16.87 ILS28.14 ILS72
10Y Revenue Exit2.32 ILS5.76 ILS9.90 ILS63
10Y EBITDA Exit6.36 ILS13.74 ILS23.32 ILS65
Multiples
EV/EBITDA3.35 ILS10.37 ILS17.39 ILS62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)2.75 ILS3.68 ILS5.50 ILS54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF5.98 ILS11.34 ILS17.52 ILS77
Rev-Margin DCFn/a3.39 ILS7.74 ILS69
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.5% (2020) → 3.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks
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Is Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 22.68 ILS versus a price of 23.76 ILS, about 5% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ORIN?
Our model-based fair value for Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 22.68 ILS (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 23.76 ILS.
What is the quality score of ORIN?
Orian Sh.M. Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 22.68 ILS (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 11.96 ILS, optimistic scenario 35.04 ILS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orian Sh.M. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 22.68 ILS, about 5% lower versus a price of 23.76 ILS (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 11.96 ILS, optimistic scenario 35.04 ILS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Orian Sh.M. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 996M ILS (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Orian Sh.M. Ltd pay a dividend?
Orian Sh.M. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.62% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Orian Sh.M. Ltd has a dividend yield of 0.6%.
What growth is priced into Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orian Sh.M. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +27.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORIN use?
Our models discount Orian Sh.M. Ltd at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orian Sh.M. Ltd that is +27.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orian Sh.M. Ltd grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +27.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orian Sh.M. Ltd (+27.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.85 %: that much free cash flow Orian Sh.M. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orian Sh.M. Ltd it is 22.68 ILS per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 23.76 ILS. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Orian Sh.M. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ORIN trades above its calculated fair value: price 23.76 ILS, fair value 22.68 ILS, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (23.76 ILS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (22.68 ILS). For Orian Sh.M. Ltd the two are 1.08 ILS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orian Sh.M. Ltd worth?
The market values Orian Sh.M. Ltd at about 428M ILS (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 23.76 ILS; our models calculate a fair value of 22.68 ILS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORIN?
Our models span a range for Orian Sh.M. Ltd: cautious scenario 11.96 ILS, base 22.68 ILS, optimistic 35.04 ILS per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 23.76 ILS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orian Sh.M. Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −1.5%, debt of 1.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORIN from its 52-week high?
Orian Sh.M. Ltd trades at 23.76 ILS, about 23% below its 52-week high of 30.80 ILS and 22% above the low of 19.45 ILS (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 22.68 ILS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orian Sh.M. Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orian Sh.M. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 23.76 ILS, calculated fair value 22.68 ILS (−5%), Quality Score 39/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORIN calculated?
We run Orian Sh.M. Ltd through 10 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 22.68 ILS builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Orian Sh.M. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 23.76 ILS. Our model-based fair value is 22.68 ILS, about 5% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orian Sh.M. Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (11.96 ILS to 35.04 ILS). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) come from?
Earnings per share at Orian Sh.M. Ltd grew −0.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orian Sh.M. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The market capitalisation of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 428M ILS. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 0.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Earnings per share at Orian Sh.M. Ltd are −0.6200 ILS. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The dividend yield of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 0.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The net margin of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is −0.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is −1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
The operating margin of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Revenue at Orian Sh.M. Ltd is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN)?
Earnings per share at Orian Sh.M. Ltd are growing +82.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orian Sh.M. Ltd (ORIN) carry?
The net debt of Orian Sh.M. Ltd is 319M ILS (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026