OT Logistics S.A (OTS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · PL · Market cap 225M PLN
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from 25.17 PLN to 14.84 PLN (−41.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −7.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from 11.14 PLN (bear) to 18.54 PLN (bull), base 14.84 PLN. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 35/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 5.51 PLN – 44.95 PLN · fair‑value band 11.14 PLN – 18.54 PLN · the 16.24 PLN price screens above the 14.84 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
OT Logistics S.A (OTS) currently trades at 16.24 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14.84 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 8.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, OT Logistics S.A generated revenue of 273M PLN at a net margin of -16.9%. Revenue declined 13.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -38.1%. Net debt stands at 496M PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 11.14 PLN (bear case) to 18.54 PLN (bull case); at 16.24 PLN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -9%, OTS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (21.29 PLN) versus Asset-Based (5.02 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
OT Logistics S.A. engages in port transshipments and freight forwarding services in Poland, and Central and Eastern Europe. It operates through Port activities; Freight services; Railway activity; and Hydrotechnical and other activities segments.
Full company description
OT Logistics S.A. engages in port transshipments and freight forwarding services in Poland, and Central and Eastern Europe. It operates through Port activities; Freight services; Railway activity; and Hydrotechnical and other activities segments. The company offers transshipment handling, warehousing, storage, packaging, and forwarding services; comprehensive logistic services in the door-to-door system, and organization transport rail, road and sea through all Polish seaports; provision of comprehensive rail transport services, such as sidings handling, manoeuvres, and transport by the Baltic Railway company; as well as waterway transportation, transportation support services for hydro projects, and lease and rental services of vessels, etc. The company was formerly known as Odratrans S.A. and changed its name to OT Logistics S.A. in 2012. OT Logistics S.A. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Szczecin, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
OT Logistics S.A reported revenue of 273M PLN in FY2025 versus 791M PLN in FY2021, a compound −23.4%/yr. Reported net income was −46.2M PLN in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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