OT Logistics S.A (OTS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of OT Logistics S.A PLN 25.87, price PLN 15.30, upside +69.1%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 6.02 PLN – 44.95 PLN · fair‑value band 20.56 PLN – 31.40 PLN · the 15.30 PLN price screens below the 25.87 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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OT Logistics S.A. engages in port transshipments and freight forwarding services in Poland, and Central and Eastern Europe. It operates through Port activities; Freight services; Railway activity; and Hydrotechnical and other activities segments.
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OT Logistics S.A. engages in port transshipments and freight forwarding services in Poland, and Central and Eastern Europe. It operates through Port activities; Freight services; Railway activity; and Hydrotechnical and other activities segments. The company offers transshipment handling, warehousing, storage, packaging, and forwarding services; comprehensive logistic services in the door-to-door system, and organization transport rail, road and sea through all Polish seaports; provision of comprehensive rail transport services, such as sidings handling, manoeuvres, and transport by the Baltic Railway company; as well as waterway transportation, transportation support services for hydro projects, and lease and rental services of vessels, etc. The company was formerly known as Odratrans S.A. and changed its name to OT Logistics S.A. in 2012. OT Logistics S.A. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Szczecin, Poland.
Stock analysis
OT Logistics S.A (OTS) currently trades at 15.30 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 25.87 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 40.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 25.21 PLN per share, and 10 of the 12 models we run sit above the 15.30 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 5.02 PLN, and 2 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 20.56 PLN (bear) to 31.40 PLN (bull), the price of 15.30 PLN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
OT Logistics S.A reported revenue of 273M PLN in FY2025 versus 791M PLN in FY2021, a compound −23.4%/yr. Reported net income was −46.2M PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 225M PLN (≈ $58.5M) · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) −3.01 PLN · Net margin −16.9% · Return on equity −35.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6% · Operating margin −5.3% · Revenue (TTM) 263M PLN.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 69%, OTS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 20.56 PLNFair Value 25.87 PLNBull 31.40 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −9.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4.8% (2020) → −6.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
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Is OT Logistics S.A (OTS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 25.87 PLN versus a price of 15.30 PLN, about +69% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OTS?
Our model-based fair value for OT Logistics S.A is 25.87 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 15.30 PLN.
What is the quality score of OTS?
OT Logistics S.A has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 25.87 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 20.56 PLN, optimistic scenario 31.40 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the OT Logistics S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 25.87 PLN, about +69% upside versus a price of 15.30 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 20.56 PLN, optimistic scenario 31.40 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
OT Logistics S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 263M PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, OT Logistics S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +10.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -20.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OTS use?
Our models discount OT Logistics S.A at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.02, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For OT Logistics S.A that is +10.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has OT Logistics S.A (OTS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at OT Logistics S.A grew -20.4 % a year. The price currently implies +10.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of OT Logistics S.A (OTS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into OT Logistics S.A (+10.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.05 %: that much free cash flow OT Logistics S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For OT Logistics S.A it is 25.87 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 15.30 PLN. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is OT Logistics S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OTS trades below its calculated fair value: price 15.30 PLN, fair value 25.87 PLN, a gap of about +69% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (15.30 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (25.87 PLN). For OT Logistics S.A the two are 10.57 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is OT Logistics S.A worth?
The market values OT Logistics S.A at about 225M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 15.30 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 25.87 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTS?
Our models span a range for OT Logistics S.A: cautious scenario 20.56 PLN, base 25.87 PLN, optimistic 31.40 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 15.30 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
Balance-sheet figures for OT Logistics S.A (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −35.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTS from its 52-week high?
OT Logistics S.A trades at 15.30 PLN, about 15% below its 52-week high of 17.98 PLN and 50% above the low of 10.22 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 25.87 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to OT Logistics S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is OT Logistics S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 15.30 PLN, calculated fair value 25.87 PLN (+69%), Quality Score 35/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OTS calculated?
We run OT Logistics S.A through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 25.87 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. OT Logistics S.A currently trades 69 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 15.30 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 25.87 PLN, about +69% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with OT Logistics S.A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (20.56 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Key figures of OT Logistics S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
The market capitalisation of OT Logistics S.A is 225M PLN (≈ $58.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of OT Logistics S.A is 0.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
Earnings per share at OT Logistics S.A are −3.01 PLN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
The net margin of OT Logistics S.A is −16.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of OT Logistics S.A is −35.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of OT Logistics S.A is 10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
The operating margin of OT Logistics S.A is −5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
Revenue at OT Logistics S.A is growing −13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at OT Logistics S.A (OTS)?
Earnings per share at OT Logistics S.A are growing −94.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does OT Logistics S.A (OTS) carry?
The net debt of OT Logistics S.A is 496M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 35.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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