Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Penske Automotive Group Inc stock $220, price $212, upside +3.7%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $75.64 – $223.44 · fair‑value band $129.93 – $302.72 · the $212.20 price screens below the $220.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Penske Automotive Group, Inc., a diversified transportation services company, operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally.
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It operates through four segments: Retail Automotive, Retail Commercial Truck, Other, and Non-Automotive Investments. The company operates franchise dealerships under franchise agreements with various automotive manufacturers and distributors.
It is also involved in the sale of new and used vehicles, maintenance and repair services, sale and placement of third-party finance and insurance products, third-party extended service and maintenance contracts, replacement and aftermarket automotive products, collision repair services, and wholesale of parts.
In addition, the company operates a heavy and medium duty truck dealership, which offers Freightliner and Western Star branded trucks, as well as offers a range of used trucks.
Further, it imports and distributes Western Star heavy-duty trucks, MAN heavy and medium duty trucks and buses, and Dennis Eagle refuse collection vehicles with associated parts, as well as distributes diesel and gas engines, and power systems.
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan.
Stock analysis
Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) currently trades at $212.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $220.10, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $249.75 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the $212.20 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $84.02, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $129.93 (bear) to $302.72 (bull), the price of $212.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Penske Automotive Group Inc reported revenue of $31.8B in FY2025 versus $25.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $935M in FY2025, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $14.0B Large · P/E ratio 14.9 · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) $14.21 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 4%, PAG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$129.93Fair Value $220.10Bull$302.72
Price $212.20 · Upside +3.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.28 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $495,810 and none bought.
SaleMichelle HulgraveEVP & CFO2× since Nov 24, 2025: 3,600 shares, avg. $165.02$594,057Jun 2, 2026
SaleGreg C SmithDirector1,488 shares at $160.02$238,110May 18, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.9% vs 14.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.1% a year for the price and +0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Premium import brands provide better demand resilience than peers, yet thin evidence of a durable moat leaves margins exposed to sector pressures.
Main risk: The company operates under franchise agreements with vehicle manufacturers that control key aspects of operations and could terminate or alter terms, or shift to direct or agency sales models especially for EVs, reducing dealership volumes and margins.
Bull case: By deepening partnerships with premium brands and expanding service and used-vehicle operations the company could adapt to any franchise changes and maintain stable revenues.
Bear case: If manufacturer partners shift to direct sales or regulations accelerate the loss of traditional dealership roles combined with debt pressures the core retail model could face sustained margin compression and reduced scale.
Penske Automotive draws most of its light-vehicle revenue from premium import brands including BMW, Lexus and Toyota. That customer base tends to hold up better when broader auto demand softens. At the same time the retail environment faces higher interest rates and slower volumes. Our models see the shares as undervalued, but will the luxury mix deliver more durable margins than peers or will sector-wide pressures still dominate?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside+3.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)4.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Penske Automotive Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAG
Frequently asked questions
Is Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $220.10 versus a price of $212.20, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PAG?
Our model-based fair value for Penske Automotive Group Inc is $220.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $212.20.
What is the quality score of PAG?
Penske Automotive Group Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $220.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $129.93, optimistic scenario $302.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Penske Automotive Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $220.10, about +4% upside versus a price of $212.20 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $129.93, optimistic scenario $302.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
Penske Automotive Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $32.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Penske Automotive Group Inc pay a dividend?
Penske Automotive Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.66% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Penske Automotive Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PAG use?
Our models discount Penske Automotive Group Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Penske Automotive Group Inc that is +15.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Penske Automotive Group Inc grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +15.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Penske Automotive Group Inc (+15.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.66 %: that much free cash flow Penske Automotive Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Penske Automotive Group Inc it is $220.10 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $212.20. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Penske Automotive Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, PAG trades below its calculated fair value: price $212.20, fair value $220.10, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($212.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($220.10). For Penske Automotive Group Inc the two are $7.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Penske Automotive Group Inc worth?
The market values Penske Automotive Group Inc at about $14.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $212.20; our models calculate a fair value of $220.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAG?
Our models span a range for Penske Automotive Group Inc: cautious scenario $129.93, base $220.10, optimistic $302.72 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $212.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PAG?
Penske Automotive Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $220.10 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 16.0 (reported for FY2025: 14.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2024, FY2025 ex one-offs: 9.2. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 2.5, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
What is the PEG ratio of PAG?
The PEG ratio of Penske Automotive Group Inc is 2.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Penske Automotive Group Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 15.8%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAG from its 52-week high?
Penske Automotive Group Inc trades at $212.20, about 5% below its 52-week high of $223.44 and 52% above the low of $139.40 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $220.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Penske Automotive Group Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, D'Ieteren Group, Hotai Motor Co, CarMax, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Penske Automotive Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $212.20, calculated fair value $220.10 (+4%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAG calculated?
We run Penske Automotive Group Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $220.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Penske Automotive Group Inc currently trades 4% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $212.20. Our model-based fair value is $220.10, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Penske Automotive Group Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($129.93 to $302.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) come from?
Earnings per share at Penske Automotive Group Inc grew +17.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Penske Automotive Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
The market capitalisation of Penske Automotive Group Inc is $14.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Penske Automotive Group Inc is 0.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
Earnings per share at Penske Automotive Group Inc are $14.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
The dividend yield of Penske Automotive Group Inc is 2.7% (payout 42.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 39.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
The net margin of Penske Automotive Group Inc is 2.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Penske Automotive Group Inc is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Penske Automotive Group Inc is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
The operating margin of Penske Automotive Group Inc is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
Revenue at Penske Automotive Group Inc is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)?
Earnings per share at Penske Automotive Group Inc are growing −1.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) carry?
The net debt of Penske Automotive Group Inc is $8.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026