Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Transimex Saigon Corp stock VND 13,665, price VND 31,800, that is 57.0% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13,460 VND – 63,750 VND · fair‑value band 7,035 VND – 21,323 VND · the 31,800 VND price screens above the 13,665 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Transimex Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in Vietnam.
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The company offers international freight forwarding, such as full container load (FCL)/ less than container load (LCL); international and domestic door-to-door transport services; air freight; project cargo and exhibition displays; and carriage, packing, and customs clearance services.
It also provides document storage solutions, including document management and archiving solutions; warehouse and distribution; inland trucking; project, construction, oversized, and overweight cargo transportation; and contract and total logistics services.
In addition, the company offers ICD operator services; packaging, repackaging, and goods distribution services; and support and agency services.
Further, it is involved in freight transport by road; real estate business; real estate trading; real estate consultancy, brokerage, real estate auction, and auction of land use rights activities; office building leasing; arranging and organizing of transportation activities by rail, road, sea, and air; supporting services related to transportation; cleaning of residential and commercial premises; landscaping maintenance and care services; leasing of machinery; inland waterway ports; inland cargo transportation; coastal and deep-sea cargo transportation; chartering of sea vessels; cargo handling; logistics distribution center; ship agency; value-added services; passenger road transportation; airline ticket agency services; and goods delivery activities.
The company was formerly known as Transimex-Saigon Corporation and changed its name to Transimex Corporation in May 2016. Transimex Corporation was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) currently trades at 31,800 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13,665 VND, 57% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 34,129 VND per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the 31,800 VND price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 8,090 VND, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 7,035 VND (bear) to 21,323 VND (bull), the price of 31,800 VND sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Transimex Saigon Corp reported revenue of 3.5T VND in FY2025 versus 6.4T VND in FY2021, a compound −14.1%/yr. Reported net income was 362B VND in FY2025, compounding −10.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.5T VND (≈ $215M) Micro · P/E ratio 10.4 · P/S ratio 1.51 · EPS (TTM) 3,056 VND · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 16.3% · Return on equity 11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −57%, TMS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear7,035 VNDFair Value 13,665 VNDBull21,323 VND
Price 31,800 VND · Downside -57.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1,592 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−14.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 9%
2025 sits 96% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+67.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +61.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks
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Is Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 13,665 VND versus a price of 31,800 VND, about 57% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TMS?
Our model-based fair value for Transimex Saigon Corp is 13,665 VND (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 31,800 VND.
What is the quality score of TMS?
Transimex Saigon Corp has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 13,665 VND (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7,035 VND, optimistic scenario 21,323 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transimex Saigon Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 13,665 VND, about 57% lower versus a price of 31,800 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 7,035 VND, optimistic scenario 21,323 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Transimex Saigon Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.6T VND (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Transimex Saigon Corp pay a dividend?
Transimex Saigon Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.77% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Transimex Saigon Corp pays a dividend of 1,200 VND per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 25, 2026. The payout ratio is 39.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.21 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Transimex Saigon Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +67.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TMS use?
Our models discount Transimex Saigon Corp at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Transimex Saigon Corp that is +67.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Transimex Saigon Corp grew +0.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +67.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Transimex Saigon Corp (+67.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.85 %: that much free cash flow Transimex Saigon Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transimex Saigon Corp it is 13,665 VND per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 31,800 VND. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Transimex Saigon Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TMS trades above its calculated fair value: price 31,800 VND, fair value 13,665 VND, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (31,800 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (13,665 VND). For Transimex Saigon Corp the two are 18,135 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transimex Saigon Corp worth?
The market values Transimex Saigon Corp at about 5.5T VND (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 31,800 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 13,665 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMS?
Our models span a range for Transimex Saigon Corp: cautious scenario 7,035 VND, base 13,665 VND, optimistic 21,323 VND per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 31,800 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TMS?
Transimex Saigon Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 13,665 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 9.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Transimex Saigon Corp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 11.4%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TMS from its 52-week high?
Transimex Saigon Corp trades at 31,800 VND, about 16% below its 52-week high of 37,759 VND and 10% above the low of 29,000 VND (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 13,665 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transimex Saigon Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transimex Saigon Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 31,800 VND, calculated fair value 13,665 VND (−57%), Quality Score 44/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMS calculated?
We run Transimex Saigon Corp through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 13,665 VND builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Transimex Saigon Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 31,800 VND. Our model-based fair value is 13,665 VND, about 57% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transimex Saigon Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (21,323 VND). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (7,035 VND to 21,323 VND). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Transimex Saigon Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The market capitalisation of Transimex Saigon Corp is 5.5T VND (≈ $215M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transimex Saigon Corp is 1.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Earnings per share at Transimex Saigon Corp are 3,056 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The dividend yield of Transimex Saigon Corp is 3.8% (payout 39.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The net margin of Transimex Saigon Corp is 16.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Transimex Saigon Corp is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transimex Saigon Corp is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The operating margin of Transimex Saigon Corp is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Revenue at Transimex Saigon Corp is growing +10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Earnings per share at Transimex Saigon Corp are growing +307% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) carry?
The net debt of Transimex Saigon Corp is 2.0T VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 41.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026