Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of Transimex Saigon Corp VND 12,456, price VND 37,950, upside -67.2%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14,615 VND – 72,578 VND · fair‑value band 6,721 VND – 19,626 VND · the 37,950 VND price screens above the 12,456 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Transimex Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in Vietnam.
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Transimex Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in Vietnam. The company offers international freight forwarding, such as full container load (FCL)/ less than container load (LCL); international and domestic door-to-door transport services; air freight; project cargo and exhibition displays; and carriage, packing, and customs clearance services. It also provides document storage solutions, including document management and archiving solutions; warehouse and distribution; inland trucking; project, construction, oversized, and overweight cargo transportation; and contract and total logistics services. In addition, the company offers ICD operator services; packaging, repackaging, and goods distribution services; and support and agency services. Further, it is involved in freight transport by road; real estate business; real estate trading; real estate consultancy, brokerage, real estate auction, and auction of land use rights activities; office building leasing; arranging and organizing of transportation activities by rail, road, sea, and air; supporting services related to transportation; cleaning of residential and commercial premises; landscaping maintenance and care services; leasing of machinery; inland waterway ports; inland cargo transportation; coastal and deep-sea cargo transportation; chartering of sea vessels; cargo handling; logistics distribution center; ship agency; value-added services; passenger road transportation; airline ticket agency services; and goods delivery activities. The company was formerly known as Transimex-Saigon Corporation and changed its name to Transimex Corporation in May 2016. Transimex Corporation was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) currently trades at 37,950 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 12,456 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 204.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 30,190 VND per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the 37,950 VND price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 5,752 VND, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 6,721 VND (bear) to 19,626 VND (bull), the price of 37,950 VND sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Transimex Saigon Corp reported revenue of 3.5T VND in FY2025 versus 6.4T VND in FY2021, a compound −14.1%/yr. Reported net income was 362B VND in FY2025, compounding −10.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.6T VND · P/E ratio 18.0 · P/S ratio 1.88 · EPS (TTM) 2,105 VND · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 18.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at −67%, TMS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 6,721 VNDFair Value 12,456 VNDBull 19,626 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (664.22 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 9%
2025 sits 96% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+75.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +68.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 216 stocks
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Is Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 12,456 VND versus a price of 37,950 VND, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TMS?
Our model-based fair value for Transimex Saigon Corp is 12,456 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 37,950 VND.
What is the quality score of TMS?
Transimex Saigon Corp has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 12,456 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6,721 VND, optimistic scenario 19,626 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transimex Saigon Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 12,456 VND, about −67% upside versus a price of 37,950 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 6,721 VND, optimistic scenario 19,626 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Transimex Saigon Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5T VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Transimex Saigon Corp pay a dividend?
Transimex Saigon Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Transimex Saigon Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +75.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 16.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TMS use?
Our models discount Transimex Saigon Corp at 16.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Transimex Saigon Corp that is +75.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (16.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Transimex Saigon Corp grew +0.3 % a year. The price currently implies +75.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Transimex Saigon Corp (+75.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.71 %: that much free cash flow Transimex Saigon Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (16.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transimex Saigon Corp it is 12,456 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 37,950 VND. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Transimex Saigon Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TMS trades above its calculated fair value: price 37,950 VND, fair value 12,456 VND, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (37,950 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (12,456 VND). For Transimex Saigon Corp the two are 25,494 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transimex Saigon Corp worth?
The market values Transimex Saigon Corp at about 6.6T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 37,950 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 12,456 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMS?
Our models span a range for Transimex Saigon Corp: cautious scenario 6,721 VND, base 12,456 VND, optimistic 19,626 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 37,950 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TMS?
Transimex Saigon Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 12,456 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 31.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Transimex Saigon Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.1%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TMS from its 52-week high?
Transimex Saigon Corp trades at 37,950 VND, about 9% below its 52-week high of 41,500 VND and 12% above the low of 33,850 VND (as of Sep 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 12,456 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transimex Saigon Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transimex Saigon Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 37,950 VND, calculated fair value 12,456 VND (−67%), Quality Score 42/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMS calculated?
We run Transimex Saigon Corp through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 12,456 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Transimex Saigon Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was 37,950 VND. Our model-based fair value is 12,456 VND, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transimex Saigon Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (19,626 VND). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (6,721 VND to 19,626 VND). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Transimex Saigon Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The market capitalisation of Transimex Saigon Corp is 6.6T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transimex Saigon Corp is 1.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Earnings per share at Transimex Saigon Corp are 2,105 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The dividend yield of Transimex Saigon Corp is 3.2% (payout 57.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The net margin of Transimex Saigon Corp is 10.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Transimex Saigon Corp is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transimex Saigon Corp is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
The operating margin of Transimex Saigon Corp is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Revenue at Transimex Saigon Corp is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS)?
Earnings per share at Transimex Saigon Corp are growing +8.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Transimex Saigon Corp (TMS) carry?
The net debt of Transimex Saigon Corp is 2.0T VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 41.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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