Tesla Inc (TSLA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tesla Inc stock $40.00, price $358, that is 88.8% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $108.10 – $489.88 · fair‑value band $22.39 – $57.97 · the $358.22 price screens above the $40.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Tesla in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Tesla is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage.
Show moreShow less
The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale.
It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans.
In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners.
Further, it provides services and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty and extended service plans; and various financing options to its residential customers; lithium-ion battery energy storage products, such as Powerwall and Megapack; energy generation products, including solar panels and solar roof; self-driving development and artificial intelligence software, vehicle control and infotainment software, and battery and powertrain.
The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock analysis
Tesla Inc (TSLA) currently trades at $358.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.00, 89% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $44.59 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $358.22 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $12.05, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $22.39 (bear) to $57.97 (bull), the price of $358.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tesla Inc reported revenue of $94.8B in FY2025 versus $53.8B in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was $3.8B in FY2025, compounding −9.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4T Mega · P/E ratio 377.1 · P/S ratio 13.8 · EPS (TTM) $0.9500 · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −89%, TSLA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($3.28 to $82.72). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$22.39Fair Value $40.00Bull$57.97
Price $358.22 · Downside -88.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8147 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $3.3M and none bought.
SaleVaibhav TanejaChief Financial Officer5× since Dec 8, 2025: 13,113 shares, avg. $412.27$5.4MSep 8, 2026
SaleKathleen Wilson-ThompsonDirector3× since Feb 25, 2026: 77,949 shares, avg. $384.25$30.0MApr 30, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJames R MurdochDirector60,000 shares at $445.40$26.7MJan 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKimbal MuskDirector56,820 shares at $450.66$25.6MDec 9, 2025
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +37.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+118.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+59.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +55.9% a year for the price and +9.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Tesla shows strength through innovation and organizational capabilities yet faces its main weakness in limited pricing power that drives ongoing margin pressure.
Main risk: Prolonged EU scrutiny and safety concerns over Tesla's Full Self-Driving system and Cybercab design without manual controls could delay or restrict approvals, limiting software revenue and robotaxi deployment in Europe.
Bull case: Tesla could leverage its data advantage and software updates to accelerate regulatory approvals in Europe while using efficiency gains to match or exceed rivals' cost structures in vehicle production.
Bear case: Extended regulatory blocks in Europe combined with persistent price pressure from lower-cost Chinese rivals could stall Tesla's shift to high-margin autonomy services and erode its position in the global EV market.
Tesla trimmed its full-year capital spending forecast by about a fifth and posted positive free cash flow in the third quarter after spending less than expected on its AI and robotics push. Battery supply still caps how quickly the company can ramp vehicle output despite a growing backlog. Will the constraint on the core auto business outweigh gains from autonomy and energy storage?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside−88.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.8% · Below median
Return on assets2.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)3.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tesla Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSLA
Frequently asked questions
Is Tesla Inc (TSLA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.00 versus a price of $358.22, about 89% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TSLA?
Our model-based fair value for Tesla Inc is $40.00 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $358.22.
What is the quality score of TSLA?
Tesla Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.00 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.39, optimistic scenario $57.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tesla Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.00, about 89% lower versus a price of $358.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.39, optimistic scenario $57.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Tesla Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $104B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Tesla Inc pay a dividend?
Tesla Inc does not currently pay a dividend.
What growth is priced into Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tesla Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +59.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.6 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSLA use?
Our models discount Tesla Inc at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tesla Inc that is +59.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tesla Inc (TSLA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tesla Inc grew +24.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +59.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tesla Inc (TSLA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tesla Inc (+59.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.49 %: that much free cash flow Tesla Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tesla Inc it is $40.00 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $358.22. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Tesla Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, TSLA trades above its calculated fair value: price $358.22, fair value $40.00, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSLA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($358.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.00). For Tesla Inc the two are $318.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tesla Inc worth?
The market values Tesla Inc at about $1.4T (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $358.22; our models calculate a fair value of $40.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSLA?
Our models span a range for Tesla Inc: cautious scenario $22.39, base $40.00, optimistic $57.97 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $358.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSLA?
Tesla Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 377.1 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.00 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 325.7 (reported for FY2025: 354.7). Other multiples: PEG 4.6, P/B 17.4, P/S 13.8.
What is the PEG ratio of TSLA?
The PEG ratio of Tesla Inc is 4.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tesla Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 3.8%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSLA from its 52-week high?
Tesla Inc trades at $358.22, about 27% below its 52-week high of $489.88 and 20% above the low of $298.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tesla Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tesla Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $358.22, calculated fair value $40.00 (−89%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSLA calculated?
We run Tesla Inc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $40.00 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tesla Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $358.22. Our model-based fair value is $40.00, about 89% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tesla Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($57.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($22.39 to $57.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tesla Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The market capitalisation of Tesla Inc is $1.4T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tesla Inc is 13.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Earnings per share at Tesla Inc are $0.9500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 377.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The net margin of Tesla Inc is 3.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tesla Inc is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tesla Inc is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The operating margin of Tesla Inc is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Revenue at Tesla Inc is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Earnings per share at Tesla Inc are growing −43.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tesla Inc (TSLA) hold?
Tesla Inc holds more cash than debt, $8.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Tesla Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Tesla Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 8, 2026