CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. ¥5.89, price ¥5.35, upside +10.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
55‑month range ¥4.25 – ¥10.78 · fair‑value band ¥3.08 – ¥7.84 · the ¥5.35 price screens below the ¥5.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.,Ltd. engages in the provision of field test technical services in China.
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CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.,Ltd. engages in the provision of field test technical services in China. It is involved in building automobile field test environments and test scenarios to automobile manufacturers, automobile testing institutions, and automobile chassis component system companies, as well as tire companies; and invests, operates, and manages automobile test sites. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Yancheng, China.
Stock analysis
CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215) currently trades at ¥5.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.89, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥3.50 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥5.35 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ¥1.07, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥3.08 (bear) to ¥7.84 (bull), the price of ¥5.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. reported revenue of 578M CNY in FY2025 versus 298M CNY in FY2021, a compound +18.0%/yr. Reported net income was 213M CNY in FY2025, compounding +19.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.1B CNY (≈ $1.1B) · P/E ratio 33.4 · P/S ratio 12.3 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1600 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 36.8% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, 301215 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥3.08Fair Value ¥5.89Bull ¥7.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0446 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.50% → 42%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.4% a year for the price.
Compare CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)37% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)39% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth60% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
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Is CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.89 versus a price of ¥5.35, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 301215?
Our model-based fair value for CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. is ¥5.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.35.
What is the quality score of 301215?
CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.08, optimistic scenario ¥7.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.89, about +10% upside versus a price of ¥5.35 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.08, optimistic scenario ¥7.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 592M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. pay a dividend?
CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +32.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301215 use?
Our models discount CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. that is +32.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. grew +14.5 % a year. The price currently implies +32.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (+32.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.69 %: that much free cash flow CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. it is ¥5.89 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥5.35. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 301215 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥5.35, fair value ¥5.89, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301215?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.89). For CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. the two are ¥0.5350 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. worth?
The market values CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. at about 7.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.35; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301215?
Our models span a range for CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥3.08, base ¥5.89, optimistic ¥7.84 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥5.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301215?
CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥5.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 12.0, EV/EBITDA 19.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
Balance-sheet figures for CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301215 from its 52-week high?
CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. trades at ¥5.35, about 26% below its 52-week high of ¥7.27 and 7% above the low of ¥5.00 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, Hotai Motor Co, CarMax, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥5.35, calculated fair value ¥5.89 (+10%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301215 calculated?
We run CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥5.35. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.89, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. right now?
A fairly wide model range (¥3.08 to ¥7.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
The market capitalisation of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. is 7.1B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. is 12.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
Earnings per share at CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. are ¥0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
The dividend yield of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. is 1.9% (payout 61.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
The net margin of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. is 36.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
The operating margin of CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. is 38.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
Revenue at CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. is growing +60.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. (301215)?
Earnings per share at CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.Ltd. are growing +60.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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