CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co (301215) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 6.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Share price +1.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥1.77 to ¥4.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
53‑month range ¥4.25 – ¥10.78 · fair‑value band ¥1.77 – ¥4.13 · the ¥5.24 price screens above the ¥3.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co (301215) currently trades at ¥5.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.32, implying the stock looks roughly 36.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co generated revenue of 592M CNY at a net margin of 36.9%. Revenue grew 60.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.5%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 32.6. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.77 (bear case) to ¥4.13 (bull case); at ¥5.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -37%, 301215 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥3.50) versus Growth DCF (¥1.07). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.,Ltd. engages in the provision of field test technical services in China. It is involved in building automobile field test environments and test scenarios to automobile manufacturers, automobile testing institutions, and automobile chassis component system companies, as well as tire companies; and invests, operates, and …
Full company description
CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.,Ltd. engages in the provision of field test technical services in China. It is involved in building automobile field test environments and test scenarios to automobile manufacturers, automobile testing institutions, and automobile chassis component system companies, as well as tire companies; and invests, operates, and manages automobile test sites. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Yancheng, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co reported revenue of ¥578M in FY2025 versus ¥298M in FY2021, a compound +18.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥213M in FY2025, compounding +19.8%/yr from FY2021.
301215 screens 37% overvalued. Compare with Carvana Co →
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $70.38 | $24.58 | -65% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $202.66 | $241.86 | +19% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 476.50 TWD | 576.75 TWD | +21% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.47 | $29.62 | -49% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $339.16 | $610.95 | +80% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $205.72 | $329.77 | +60% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.89 | $66.27 | -14% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $38.64 | $24.57 | -36% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $39.46 | $33.81 | -14% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$20.83 | A$17.66 | -15% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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