China National Gold Group (600916) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 13.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +10.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.84 – ¥18.33 · fair‑value band ¥2.71 – ¥4.51 · the ¥7.77 price screens above the ¥3.61 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
China National Gold Group (600916) currently trades at ¥7.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.61, implying the stock looks roughly 53.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, China National Gold Group generated revenue of 74.2B CNY at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 39.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 6.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.71 (bear case) to ¥4.51 (bull case); at ¥7.77, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at -54%, 600916 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥10.91) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.16). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, processing, wholesale, and retail of gold, silver, jewelry, and mold products in China and internationally. It offers gold products, including gold bars, jewelry, and other gold products; K gold jewelry products comprising jewelry made of K gold, platinum, silver, etc.
Full company description
China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, processing, wholesale, and retail of gold, silver, jewelry, and mold products in China and internationally. It offers gold products, including gold bars, jewelry, and other gold products; K gold jewelry products comprising jewelry made of K gold, platinum, silver, etc., as well as inlaid jewelry products, such as diamonds, pearls, jade, colored gemstones, etc. The company also provides gold watches, K gold watches, platinum watches, precious metals Inlaid watches, and metal smart electronic wearable devices; metal commemorative coins and seals; outer packaging and recycling of old gold and silver materials. In addition, it is involved in the road transportation of general goods, precious metal warehousing, and logistics services, as well as exhibition services; and wholesale and retail of office supplies, gifts, and handicrafts. The company sells its products through directly operated and franchise stores, as well as online. China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China National Gold Group reported revenue of ¥69.8B in FY2025 versus ¥50.8B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥275M in FY2025, compounding −23.3%/yr from FY2021.
600916 screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Compagnie Financière Richemont SA →
Peer Group
Luxury Goods · 132 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR | CHF 197.40 | CHF 117.30 | -41% |
| Christian Dior SE DIO | €455.40 | €502.30 | +10% |
| Kering SA KER | €248.50 | €60.61 | -76% |
| Tapestry, Inc TPR | $140.73 | $19.95 | -86% |
| Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 | HK$11.82 | HK$12.28 | +4% |
| The Swatch Group UHRN | CHF 40.95 | CHF 21.48 | -48% |
| Prada S.p.A 1913 | HK$43.26 | HK$64.05 | +48% |
| Pandora A/S PNDORA | kr 779.40 | kr 1,424 | +83% |
| Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A BC | €80.32 | €42.69 | -47% |
| Kalyan Jewellers India Limited KALYANKJIL | ₹546.60 | ₹238.57 | -56% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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