MotorCycle Holdings (MTO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$191M
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +7.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 97% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$4.03). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.8637 – A$3.75 · fair‑value band A$4.03 – A$6.71 · the A$2.73 price screens below the A$5.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
MotorCycle Holdings (MTO) currently trades at A$2.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$5.37, implying the stock looks roughly 96.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, MotorCycle Holdings generated revenue of A$719M at a net margin of 2.8%. Revenue grew 20.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.5%. Net debt stands at A$101M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$4.03 (bear case) to A$6.71 (bull case); at A$2.73, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 97%, MTO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (A$12.17) versus Asset-Based (A$1.87). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MotorCycle Holdings Limited owns and operates motorcycle dealerships in Australia. It operates through Motorcycle Retailing and Motorcycle Accessories Wholesaling segments.
Full company description
MotorCycle Holdings Limited owns and operates motorcycle dealerships in Australia. It operates through Motorcycle Retailing and Motorcycle Accessories Wholesaling segments. The company is involved in the sale of new motorcycles, used motorcycles, accessories and parts, and mechanical protection plan contracts; wholesaling and retailing of motorcycle accessories. It also distributes motorcycles, ATVs, scooters, including electric models, as well as motorcycle and bicycle parts, accessories, and apparel. In addition, the company engages in financing and insurance services for motorcycle purchases through third-party sources, as well as servicing and repair of motorcycles. MotorCycle Holdings Limited serves motorcyclists who are primarily leisure riders, recreational users, commuters, farmers, and adventure sports related users through various retail and wholesale outlets in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, the Australian Capital Territory in Australia, as well as in New Zealand. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MotorCycle Holdings reported revenue of A$650M in FY2025 versus A$430M in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$18.0M in FY2025, compounding −10.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $70.38 | $24.58 | -65% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $202.66 | $241.86 | +19% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 476.50 TWD | 576.75 TWD | +21% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.47 | $29.62 | -49% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $339.16 | $610.95 | +80% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $205.72 | $329.77 | +60% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.89 | $66.27 | -14% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $38.64 | $24.57 | -36% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $39.46 | $33.81 | -14% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$20.83 | A$17.66 | -15% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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